Mississippi Senate 2026

Mississippi's Senate seat is priced as a Republican hold. Cindy Hyde-Smith is 90% on Kalshi and 90.5% on Polymarket, against Scott Colom at 9.5% on both.

The flow runs the other way. Kalshi's board turned $31,472 in a day, and Colom's leg took $30,942 of it; Hyde-Smith's took $530. Polymarket shows the same split: $18,339 on Colom, $2,749 on Hyde-Smith. Colom's Kalshi leg also holds the open interest, $121,066 to her $53,409.

The margin is the open question. Kalshi's ladder prices Hyde-Smith by 7 points or more at 48% and by 9 or more at 35.5%, and its vote-share board puts Colom at 44% or better at 60.5%.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, the favorite: Hyde-Smith at 90% on Kalshi and 90.5% on Polymarket. Bottom row, the leg that takes the money: Colom near one chance in ten on both, with $30,942 of the day on Kalshi and $18,339 on Polymarket. The two exchanges agree to within a point, and on both the cheaper leg is the busier one.

The margin ladder. Kalshi prices Hyde-Smith by 3 or more at 77%, by 7 or more at 48%, by 9 or more at 35.5% and by 11 or more at 24%. The 5-point rung is quoted 11 bid, 56 offered, so skip it. The ladder turned $698; read it as a quote.

Colom's vote share. 92% to reach 40%, 81% to reach 42%, 60.5% to reach 44%, 33% to reach 46% and 12% to reach 48%, on $100 of volume.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books: turnout, each candidate's vote share and the state's four House seats.

• Mississippi Secretary of State: Elections & Voting — The official election calendar, voter registration and absentee voting rules for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Mississippi Secretary of State: Election Results — Official results for Mississippi elections, published as counties certify.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Mississippi - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.

Kalshi's head-to-head asks which Senate race finishes closer, Minnesota or Mississippi: Minnesota 61.5%, Mississippi 31.5%, on $436. Both seats are priced as holds near nine to one, one for each party; the other is on Minnesota Senate 2026.

The reddest state to elect a Democratic senator board has Texas at 37%, Kansas 18.5% and North Carolina 13%. Mississippi is 5%, yet it holds $12,143 of open interest, second only to North Carolina's $13,127.

• The Colom leg. Nearly all of the day's volume on both exchanges, at about one chance in ten. If the price moves before November 3, it shows here first.
• The 7-point line at 48%. The winner market calls the race; the margin ladder is where the two sides still disagree.
• Colom's vote share. 60.5% to reach 44%, 33% to reach 46%, 12% to reach 48%.
• Minnesota or Mississippi. Kalshi makes Minnesota the closer race at 61.5%.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles November 4; Kalshi's runs to January 4.