Mississippi Senate 2026

Mississippi's Senate seat is priced as a Republican hold. Cindy Hyde-Smith is 87.5% on Kalshi and 89.5% on Polymarket, against Scott Colom at 12.5% and 10.5%. Two weeks ago she was 90% and 90.5%.

The flow has evened out. Kalshi's board turned $37,757 in a day, $19,586 on Colom and $18,328 on Hyde-Smith; two weeks ago nearly all of it went on Colom. Polymarket's $2,167 went almost entirely on Hyde-Smith.

The margin is the open question. Kalshi's ladder prices Hyde-Smith by 7 points or more at 41%, and its vote-share board puts Colom at 44% or better at 68%.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, the favorite: Hyde-Smith at 87.5% on Kalshi and 89.5% on Polymarket. Bottom row, Colom: 12.5% on Kalshi and 10.5% on Polymarket, with $19,586 of Kalshi's day on his leg. The two exchanges agree to within two points; Kalshi is the one that has moved toward Colom.

The margin ladder. Kalshi prices Hyde-Smith by 3 or more at 86.4%, by 5 or more at 58.5%, by 7 or more at 41%, by 11 or more at 36.5% and by 17 or more at 32%. The upper rungs barely trade ($128 in a day) and sit too close together to be consistent quotes; read the ladder as a sketch.

Colom's vote share. 94.5% to reach 40%, 86% to reach 42%, 68% to reach 44%, 42% to reach 46% and 16% to reach 48%, on $92 of volume. Each rung is several points higher than two weeks ago.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books.

• Mississippi Secretary of State: Elections & Voting — The official election calendar, voter registration and absentee voting rules for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Mississippi Secretary of State: Election Results — Official results for Mississippi elections, published as counties certify.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Mississippi - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.

Kalshi's head-to-head asks which Senate race finishes closer, Minnesota or Mississippi: Minnesota 60.5%, Mississippi 39.5%, on $190. Both seats are priced as holds near nine to one, one for each party; the other is on Minnesota Senate 2026.

The reddest state to elect a Democratic senator board has Texas at 34.5%, Kansas 24.5%, North Carolina 14.5% and South Carolina and Alaska 10% each. Mississippi sits below them.

• The Colom leg. 12.5% on Kalshi, up from 9.5% two weeks ago, on half the day's volume.
• The 7-point line at 41%. The winner market calls the race; the margin ladder is where the two sides still disagree.
• Colom's vote share. 68% to reach 44%, 42% to reach 46%, 16% to reach 48%.
• Minnesota or Mississippi. Kalshi makes Minnesota the closer race at 60.5%.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles November 4; Kalshi's runs to January 4.