Minnesota Senate 2026

Minnesota's open Senate seat is still priced as a Democratic hold, by less than two weeks ago. Peggy Flanagan is 86.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, down from 89.5%, against Michele Tafoya at 14.5% on Kalshi and 13.5% on Polymarket. Manifold's play-money book has Flanagan at 88.2%.

The flow keeps running the other way, and it has grown. Kalshi's board turned $186,585 in a day, more than twice its volume two weeks ago, and Tafoya's leg took $114,992 to Flanagan's $72,090. Polymarket's smaller day split nearly evenly: $2,177 on Flanagan, $1,998 on Tafoya.

The margin is the open question. On Kalshi's ladder the strike nearest even money is Flanagan by 7 or more, now 44.5%, and by 5 or more is 59.5%.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, the favorite: Flanagan at 86.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Bottom row, the leg that takes the money: Tafoya at 14.5% on Kalshi and 13.5% on Polymarket, with $114,992 of the day on Kalshi. The two exchanges agree on the favorite to the half point, and on Kalshi the cheaper leg is again the busier one.

The margin ladder. Kalshi prices Flanagan by 1 or more at 84%, by 3 or more at 73.5%, by 5 or more at 59.5%, by 7 or more at 44.5% and by 9 or more at 27.5%, on $9,535 today, all of it lower than two weeks ago.

Beside the 7-point leg, the primary sources for the race. Below, Kalshi's combined board for the Senate seat and the governor's race, where Amy Klobuchar and Flanagan both winning is 84.5% and Klobuchar with Tafoya 12.5%, next to the list of Kalshi's related books on this race.

• Minnesota Secretary of State: Elections & Voting — The official election calendar, voter registration and early voting rules for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Minnesota Secretary of State: Election Results — Official results for Minnesota elections, published as counties report.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Minnesota - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.

• The Tafoya leg. $114,992 of a $186,585 Kalshi day, and the price has followed: Flanagan is down three points in two weeks.
• The 7-point line at 44.5%. The winner market calls the race; the margin ladder is where the two sides still disagree, and it has moved toward Tafoya.
• Manifold against the exchanges. 88.2% on Flanagan in play money, 86.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket.
• The governor's race on the same ballot. The combined board prices Klobuchar and Flanagan both winning at 84.5%.
• Senate control. This seat is one of the holds behind the Senate control price.