Minnesota Senate 2026

Minnesota's open Senate seat is priced as a Democratic hold. Peggy Flanagan is 89.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, against Michele Tafoya at 10.5% on both. Manifold's play-money book has Flanagan at 93.5%.

The flow runs the other way. Kalshi's board turned $70,669 in a day, and Tafoya's leg took $47,314, twice Flanagan's $23,355. Polymarket shows the same split at smaller size: $8,630 on Tafoya, $3,998 on Flanagan.

The margin is the open question. On Kalshi's ladder the strike nearest even money is Flanagan by 7 or more, at 50%, and Tafoya reaching 44% of the vote is priced at 61.5%.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, the favorite: Flanagan at 89.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Bottom row, the leg that takes the money: Tafoya at 10.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with $47,314 of the day on Kalshi and $8,630 on Polymarket. The two exchanges agree to the half point, and on both the cheaper leg is the busier one.

The margin ladder. Kalshi prices Flanagan by 1 or more at 86.5%, by 5 or more at 64%, by 7 or more at 50% and by 9 or more at 36.5%. The ladder turned $208, so read it as a quote.

Beside the 7-point leg, the primary sources for the race. Below, Kalshi's combined board for the Senate seat and the governor's race, where Amy Klobuchar and Flanagan both winning is 89.5% and Klobuchar is 95.4% for governor on her own, next to the list of Kalshi's related books on this race.

• Minnesota Secretary of State: Elections & Voting — The official election calendar, voter registration and early voting rules for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Minnesota Secretary of State: Election Results — Official results for Minnesota elections, published as counties report.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Minnesota - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.

• The Tafoya leg. Twice the favorite's volume on Kalshi at 10.5%. If the price moves before November 3, it shows here first.
• The 7-point line at 50%. The winner market calls the race; the margin ladder is where the two sides still disagree.
• Tafoya's vote share. 61.5% to reach 44%, 34% to reach 46%, 13% to reach 48%.
• Manifold against the exchanges. 93.5% on Flanagan in play money, 89.5% on Kalshi.
• The governor's race on the same ballot. Klobuchar at 95.4%; the combined board prices both Democrats winning at 89.5%.
• Senate control. This seat is one of the holds behind the Senate control price.