2026 Senate Control

Kalshi's price moved again. It prices a Democratic Senate at 60.5%, down two points from Thursday, while Polymarket holds at 63.5%. Kalshi's book turned $447,498, and $287,855 of it, 64%, traded on the Republican leg, at 38.5%. In early September Kalshi still priced a Republican hold at 52.5%.

Polymarket's $204,908 split almost evenly: $106,618 on the Republican leg, $98,290 on the Democratic.

Underneath, Texas prices James Talarico at 63.5% over Ken Paxton, down two and a half points, on a $1,612,862 day, $1,305,135 of it on Paxton; Michigan prices Abdul El-Sayed at 66.5%, down three, as Mike Rogers again took most of the day.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Kalshi and Polymarket list the same binary Senate-control event, now three points apart on the Democratic leg: 60.5% on Kalshi and 63.5% on Polymarket. Beside them, Kalshi's Range on the exact number of Democratic seats prices Above 52 as the single most likely bucket at 36.5%, on $132,375, and this time it also took the most money, $46,008. 52 is 17.5%, 51 14.5%, 50 12.5% and 49 8.45%. The weight still sits on a Democratic majority with seats to spare.

The Republican leg on both venues, priced directly: 38.5% on Kalshi and 36.5% on Polymarket. Kalshi's two legs sum to 99%. The Republican contract took $287,855 of the event's $447,498, 64%; on Polymarket it took $106,618 of $204,908, 52%.

The lean toward the cheaper side is still the pattern on Kalshi, and for a second day the price followed it; Polymarket's crowd split down the middle and its price held.

The combo books price House and Senate jointly. Both agree on the shape: a Democratic sweep at 60.5% on Kalshi and 62.5% on Polymarket, a split Congress with a Republican Senate at 28.5% on both, a Republican sweep at 10.5% / 8.5%.

The cheap legs are still where the money goes on Kalshi. The Republican sweep took $432,386 and R-House, D-Senate, priced at 0.75%, took $265,596; together the two took 89% of the book's $787,530 day. Polymarket's book turned $442,616, with the most, $150,357, on R Senate, D House.

Read against the standalone books, the combo pricing implies a Democratic Senate at about 61.3% on Kalshi and 63.4% on Polymarket, each within a point of its direct price.

Both narrowed.

Texas (SENATETX-26, $1,612,862 today, the busiest state book on the page) prices James Talarico at 63.5% against Ken Paxton at 36.5%, down two and a half points. In early September it was 50.5 / 49.5 and the closest statewide Senate race listed anywhere. The flow went heavily to Paxton: $1,305,135 on him, $326,670 on Talarico.

Michigan (SENATEMI-26, $331,389) prices Abdul El-Sayed at 66.5% against Mike Rogers at 33.5%, three points narrower than Thursday. Rogers took two thirds of the day, $223,827 to $108,592.

• 60.5% on Kalshi, 63.5% on Polymarket. Kalshi down two points for a second day; Polymarket unchanged.
• $287,855 on Kalshi's Republican leg. 64% of the day on the 38.5% side, and the price followed again.
• $432,386 on a Republican sweep at 10.5%. With $265,596 more on R-House, D-Senate at 0.75%, the two least likely outcomes took 89% of Kalshi's combo book.
• Texas at 63.5%. The seat that was a coin flip in September; today $1.3M went to Paxton.
• Michigan three points narrower. El-Sayed 66.5%, with Rogers taking two thirds of the day.
• The seat-count Range. Above 52 at 36.5% is the modal bucket, and today it drew the most money.