Georgia Governor 2026

Georgia's race for governor is a near coin flip, and its favorite has changed. Kalshi prices Republican Rick Jackson at 53.5% and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 47.5%; Polymarket has it 53.5 to 45.5. In mid-September Bottoms led on Kalshi, 61 to 40.

The day's money is on the new favorite. Kalshi's board turned $31,102, and $29,372 of it traded on Jackson. Polymarket's turned $2,545, split almost evenly. Kalshi holds $708,603 of open interest, $430,930 of it on Jackson's leg.

The other two venues have not followed. Manifold still has the Democrats a point ahead, 50.5 to 49.5, and PredictIt has the Republicans at 55.5% on a book that did not trade today.

Georgia can go to a runoff. A candidate needs a majority on November 3; Polymarket prices an outright first-round winner at 63.5%, which leaves better than one chance in three of a second round.

Below: the four winner books, Jackson's leg on both exchanges, the margin ladders, the runoff contract, the primary sources, the Governor–Senate combos and Kalshi's related books.

Left, Kalshi's Jackson contract at 53.5%, which took $29,372 today. Right, Polymarket's at 53.5%, on $1,120. The two agree on the favorite to the half point and differ on the underdog: Bottoms is 47.5% on Kalshi and 45.5% on Polymarket, so Kalshi's book sums to 101% and Polymarket's to 99%. They also settle ten weeks apart, Polymarket's on election night and Kalshi's on January 14.

Kalshi runs a margin ladder for each candidate. Jackson by 2 points or more is 42%, by 5 or more 16.5%, by 8 or more 11.4%; the 2-point rung took all of the ladder's $2,549. Bottoms by 1 or more is 41%, by 4 or more 26%, by 7 or more 14%. Each side's first rung sits below its price to win, eleven points for Jackson and six for Bottoms, so a large share of both candidates' winning scenarios are narrow ones.

The runoff contract is Polymarket's: an outright first-round winner at 63.5%, on $707. Beside it, the primary sources for the race.

• Georgia Secretary of State: Elections Division — The official election calendar, voter registration and candidate information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Georgia Secretary of State: election results — The state's official results site, updated on election night and as counties certify.
• Ballotpedia: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2026 — The candidates, primary results and past results for the race.

Both exchanges price the two statewide races together, and both make a split ticket about as likely as a Democratic sweep. Kalshi's combo has Jackson and Ossoff at 48.5% and Bottoms and Ossoff at 43%, with the two Collins outcomes at 5% between them. Polymarket's has a Democratic sweep at 49.5% and a Republican governor with a Democratic senator at 47.5%.

Jon Ossoff is about 96% to hold the Senate seat, so nearly all the uncertainty in these books is the governor's race. See Georgia Senate 2026.

• Whether Jackson's lead holds. 53.5% on both exchanges, from 40% in mid-September, with $29,372 behind it today on Kalshi.
• Manifold and PredictIt. One still has the Democrats ahead by a point, the other the Republicans at 55.5%; neither book is busy.
• The first rungs. Jackson, 2+ pts at 42% and Bottoms, 1+ pts at 41%: both margin ladders say close.
• The runoff. 63.5% for an outright winner on November 3 leaves 36.5% for a second round.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles on election night; Kalshi's runs to January 14, 2027.