Georgia Governor 2026

Georgia's race for governor is still close to a coin flip, with the Republican a little ahead. Kalshi prices Republican Rick Jackson at 55.5% and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 45.5%, two points wider than a week ago; Polymarket has it 53.5 to 47.5. In mid-September Bottoms led on Kalshi, 61 to 40.

The day's money is on the favorite. Kalshi's board turned $7,909, and $7,069 of it traded on Jackson. Polymarket's turned $356. Kalshi holds $783,150 of open interest.

The other two venues are level. Manifold has moved to the Republicans by a point, 50.7 to 49.3, and PredictIt quotes both parties at 50.5% on a book that did not trade today.

Georgia can go to a runoff. A candidate needs a majority on November 3; Polymarket prices an outright first-round winner at 53.05%, down from 63.5% a week ago, which leaves nearly even odds of a second round. The contract traded $41 today, so read the move with care.

Below: the four winner books, Jackson's leg on both exchanges, the margin ladders, the runoff contract, the primary sources, the Governor–Senate combos and Kalshi's related books.

Left, Kalshi's Jackson contract at 55.5%, which took $7,069 today. Right, Polymarket's at 53.5%, on $317. The two are two points apart on the favorite and two apart the other way on the underdog: Bottoms is 45.5% on Kalshi and 47.5% on Polymarket, so both books sum to 101%. They also settle ten weeks apart, Polymarket's on election night and Kalshi's on January 14.

Kalshi runs a margin ladder for each candidate. Jackson by 2 points or more is 43.5%, by 5 or more 17.5%, by 8 or more 16.5%; the ladder did not trade today. Bottoms by 1 or more is 40%, by 4 or more 25.5%, by 7 or more 13%. Each side's first rung sits below its price to win, twelve points for Jackson and five and a half for Bottoms, so a large share of both candidates' winning scenarios are narrow ones.

The runoff contract is Polymarket's: an outright first-round winner at 53.05%, on $41. Beside it, the primary sources for the race.

• Georgia Secretary of State: Elections Division — The official election calendar, voter registration and candidate information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Georgia Secretary of State: election results — The state's official results site, updated on election night and as counties certify.
• Ballotpedia: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2026 — The candidates, primary results and past results for the race.

Both exchanges price the two statewide races together, and both now make a split ticket the likeliest outcome. Kalshi's combo has Jackson and Ossoff at 53% and Bottoms and Ossoff at 46%, with the two Collins outcomes at 5% between them. Polymarket's has a Republican governor with a Democratic senator at 50.5% and a Democratic sweep at 46.5%.

Jon Ossoff is about 96% to hold the Senate seat, so nearly all the uncertainty in these books is the governor's race. See Georgia Senate 2026.

• Whether Jackson's lead holds. 55.5% on Kalshi and 53.5% on Polymarket, from 40% in mid-September, with $7,069 behind it today on Kalshi.
• Manifold and PredictIt. Manifold has the Republicans ahead by a point and PredictIt is level; neither book is busy.
• The first rungs. Jackson, 2+ pts at 43.5% and Bottoms, 1+ pts at 40%: both margin ladders say close.
• The runoff. 53.05% for an outright winner on November 3 leaves about 47% for a second round, up from 36.5%, on very little volume.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles on election night; Kalshi's runs to January 14, 2027.