Georgia Senate 2026

Georgia's Senate race pairs incumbent Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins, and the winner book has stopped being a question. Kalshi prices Ossoff 95.65%, Polymarket 95.7%.

The position does not match the price. Open interest on Kalshi's book runs $1,160,140 on Collins against $368,952 on Ossoff, more than three to one on the underdog at 4.75%. The flow leans the same way: of $123,126 traded in twenty-four hours, $84,276 went through Collins' leg and $38,811 through Ossoff's.

The close race in Georgia is for governor, and it has changed hands. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is now 59.5% against Republican Rick Jackson at 40.5%; at mid-month Jackson led.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and Georgia does not appear among the five leaders of Kalshi's closest Senate race book.

Below: the two winner books, the margin ladder, the Governor–Senate combo, Georgia's runoff rule, and how the state prices against the rest of the map.

A twentieth of a point apart and functionally settled: Ossoff 95.65% on Kalshi, 95.7% on Polymarket. Kalshi carries about four and a half times the day's volume ($123,126 against $27,335), and Polymarket's flow ran the other way, $26,136 of it on Ossoff. The disagreement worth watching is not between exchanges; it is between price and positioning inside the Kalshi book.

Ossoff at 95.65% and Collins at 4.75%, priced directly. Watch the open-interest line rather than the price line: the underdog's contract holds more than three times the favorite's position, and today's flow went his way again, $84,276 to $38,811.

The margin ladder still puts Ossoff well clear. Ossoff, 2+ pts prices 92.25%, 3+ at 91.8%, 4+ at 88%, 5+ at 83.5% and 6+ at 79.5%, on $36,173 across the board.

The Governor–Senate combo book has followed the governor's race. Bottoms and Ossoff prices 58%, Jackson and Ossoff 39.5%, Jackson and Collins 4% and Bottoms and Collins 1%: 102.5% in all, on $918. A Democratic sweep is now its likeliest outcome, in line with the governor's book.

• Whether the $1.16M on Collins is conviction or hedge. More than three times the favorite's open interest on a leg priced at 4.75%, and it took more than two thirds of today's $123,126.
• The governor's flip. Bottoms 59.5%, Jackson 40.5%, though Jackson's leg holds the larger position and took most of the day's flow.
• The runoff rule. Georgia requires 50%+1. Kalshi prices the governor's race being won outright at 94.25%, roughly a one-in-seventeen chance of a runoff.
• The combo book. Bottoms and Ossoff leads at 58%, and the four outcomes add to 102.5%.
• Georgia against North Carolina. Georgia is 40% to post the larger margin, behind North Carolina at 59.5%.
• Election Day, November 3. Polymarket's winner book is scheduled to settle that night; Kalshi's runs to January 4.

Georgia's competitive statewide race is the one at the top of the ballot, not the Senate seat. Keisha Lance Bottoms now prices 59.5% against Republican Rick Jackson at 40.5% on $26,581 a day, and $17,916 of it traded on Jackson. Jackson's leg also holds the larger position: $920,725 of open interest to Bottoms' $500,459.

Beside it, the rule that makes Georgia different: a candidate needs 50%+1 or the race goes to a runoff. Kalshi's Multiple on which offices are won outright prices the Governor at 94.25%, with the attorney general, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and insurance commissioner races between 94.55% and 95.5%.

Two books that price Georgia against the rest of the board rather than against itself.

Closest Senate race in 2026 ranks the whole map, and Georgia is not in its top five: Iowa leads at 16.5%, then Texas and Kansas at 16% each, Maine 9.75% and Michigan 8.35%, on $24,914.

Larger margin of victory: Georgia or North Carolina asks which of the two Democratic favorites wins bigger: North Carolina 59.5%, Georgia 40%, on $2,826, more of it on North Carolina.