Georgia Senate 2026

Georgia's Senate race pairs incumbent Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins, and the winner book has stopped being a question. Kalshi prices Ossoff 95.65%, Polymarket 97.2%; both have firmed four points since mid-September.

The position does not match the price. Open interest on Kalshi's book runs $719,338 on Collins against $247,247 on Ossoff, nearly three to one on the underdog at 4.25%. The flow has thinned and evened out: of $3,950 traded in twenty-four hours, $2,326 went through Ossoff's leg and $1,624 through Collins'.

The map has moved around it. In September this was a safe Democratic hold inside a Senate the market priced 53% Republican. Senate control is now 62.5% Democratic on Kalshi, and Georgia does not appear in the top five of Kalshi's closest Senate race book.

The competitive race in Georgia is for governor, and it has flipped. Republican Rick Jackson is 53.5% against Keisha Lance Bottoms at 47.5%; three weeks ago Bottoms led 61 to 40.

Below: the two winner books, the margin ladder, the Governor–Senate combo, Georgia's runoff rule, and how the state prices against the rest of the map.

A point and a half apart and functionally settled: Ossoff 95.65% on Kalshi, 97.2% on Polymarket. Kalshi carries six times the day's volume ($3,950 against $636) and most of the open interest. The disagreement worth watching is not between exchanges; it is between price and positioning inside the Kalshi book.

Ossoff at 95.65% and Collins at 4.25%, priced directly. Watch the open-interest line rather than the price line: the underdog's contract still holds nearly three times the favorite's position, though the day's flow no longer leans his way.

The margin ladder puts Ossoff around nine points. Ossoff, 2+ pts prices 92%, 4+ at 84.5%, 6+ at 73.5%, 8+ at 58% and 10+ at 41.5%. The ladder is properly ordered now, and the 8-point rung took $2,092 of the board's $2,600.

The Governor–Senate combo book has swung from overround to underround. Jackson and Ossoff prices 48.5%, Bottoms and Ossoff 43%, Jackson and Collins 4% and Bottoms and Collins 1%: 96.5% in all, where the same four legs summed to 111% in September. It now puts Jackson ahead of Bottoms, in line with the governor's book.

• Whether the $719,338 on Collins is conviction or hedge. Nearly three times the open interest of the favorite on a leg priced at 4.25%. The position has grown since September while the price has halved.
• The 8-point rung. Ossoff, 8+ pts at 58% is the live question in the stack, and it took most of the margin board's volume today.
• The runoff rule. Georgia requires 50%+1. Kalshi prices the Senate race being won outright at 92.15%, meaning roughly a one-in-thirteen chance of a runoff.
• The governor's race has flipped. Jackson 53.5%, Bottoms 47.5%, from Bottoms 61 in mid-September. A Republican governor and a Democratic senator on the same ballot is now the combo book's likeliest outcome at 48.5%.
• The combo book adds to 96.5%. It summed to 111% in September. Thin combo books can be off by several points in either direction.
• Georgia against North Carolina. Georgia is 56% to post the larger margin.

Georgia's competitive statewide race is the one at the top of the ballot, not the Senate seat. Republican Rick Jackson prices 53.5% against Keisha Lance Bottoms at 47.5% on $31,142 a day, and $29,362 of it traded on Jackson. In mid-September Bottoms led 61 to 40.

Beside it, the rule that makes Georgia different: a candidate needs 50%+1 or the race goes to a runoff. Kalshi's KXGA1ROUND Multiple prices each statewide office being won outright: Senate at 92.15%, with the other offices shown between 91.75% and 93.1%.

Two books that price Georgia against the rest of the board rather than against itself.

Closest Senate race in 2026 ranks the whole map, and Georgia is not in its top five: Iowa leads at 18.5%, then Texas 16.5%, Kansas 9.5%, Maine 9.15% and Ohio 8.3%, on $5,014.

Larger margin of victory: Georgia or North Carolina asks which of the two safe Democratic holds wins bigger: Georgia 56%, North Carolina 43%, with nothing traded today and $7,403 of open interest.