Bitcoin Year-End 2026

Year-end bitcoin is a clean case for reading prediction markets as derivatives: Kalshi and Polymarket both list the full distribution, and together they form an implied density set by trading.

The distribution has moved down again. Kalshi's year-end Range now leads with $70,000 to $74,999.99 at 20.95%, then 65,000 to 69,999.99 at 18.7% and 75,000 to 79,999.99 14.35%, on $273,956 in the past day. When will Bitcoin cross $100k again prices a return above six figures before January 2027 at 6.5%, down from 12.5%. Polymarket's touch board has ↓ 70,000 at 81.5%, up from 54.5%. The $200k by 2027 binary is 2%, and took about $10,300 in the past day.

Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 is 33.05%, down from 40.15%: the contract that prices the year's race between digital gold and the metal has moved further below a coin flip. The metals tracker carries the other side.

Settlement: end of 2026, against the CME BTC index.

Polymarket's 2026 touch board beside Kalshi's year-end Range: the path and the close. Polymarket carried $498,945 in the past day against Kalshi's $273,956. The Kalshi buckets run $70–75k at 20.95%, $65–70k at 18.7%, $75–80k at 14.35%, $80–85k at 9.75% and $60–65k at 9.45%. On Polymarket, the downside leads: ↓ 70,000 is 81.5%, up from 54.5%, ↓ 65,000 45.5%, the rung nearest even, ↓ 60,000 26% and ↓ 55,000 11.5%, against a touch of $90,000 at 11%, down from 23.5%. The busiest listed rung in the past day was ↓ 55,000, $44,990.

The path books. When does Bitcoin cross $100k again prices before December at 1.5% and before January 2027 at 6.5%. How low does Bitcoin get in 2026 has below $55,000 at 14%, down from 15.5% and the busiest rung at $4,202, below $50,000 8.5%, and below $45,000 and below $40,000 4.5% each, on $7,788. Below them, the $200k binary at 2% and the how-high ceiling, which puts a touch above $100,000 at 6.5%, down from 11.5%, and above $110,000 at 3%. The $150k timing boards price this year at 1.05% on Polymarket and 1.5% on Kalshi, and the end of 2027 at 21.5%. Further down, Polymarket's best-month pie has August at 91.9%, with December at 6.9% and November 2.05%.

• The distribution has moved down again. The modal year-end bucket is now $70–75k at 20.95%, with $65–70k at 18.7% close behind.
• $100k this year is about one in fifteen. 6.5% before January 2027 on the timing ladder, 6.5% on the high-water chain, and 1.5% before December.
• The downside is the strong favorite. ↓ 70,000 on Polymarket is 81.5% and ↓ 65,000 45.5%; Kalshi's below $55,000 is 14%.
• Bitcoin versus gold at 33.05%. Further below even, on $1,527 of volume.
• Read the Range as a probability density, not a forecast. Each bucket is a probability mass set by trading; the useful output is the shape.

The two contracts that price bitcoin against something other than itself. Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026 sits at 33.05%, down from 40.15%, on $1,527 of volume: a thin book, but the market's cleanest statement that the store-of-value trade is contested. Beside it, whether a National Bitcoin Reserve gets created in 2026, at 3.7%.