2028 Presidential Election

The 2028 presidential cycle is the deepest long-dated political market on either exchange: $691,712 a day on Polymarket's general-election book, $432,938 on Kalshi's Democratic nominee book and $429,047 on Polymarket's. Nothing here settles for more than two years.

The Democratic nomination has become a three-way race with two different leaders. Polymarket has Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16.55%, Gavin Newsom at 16.25% and Jon Ossoff at 14.6%. Kalshi has Ossoff in front at 16.5%, with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 13.5%. Three weeks ago Ocasio-Cortez led both books by two points.

The flow has moved toward Ossoff. His Polymarket nomination leg took $72,500 of the day against $44,313 for Ocasio-Cortez and $6,657 for Newsom. On Kalshi, Kamala Harris at 7.25% took the most among the leaders, $34,939, ahead of Ocasio-Cortez at $30,273 and Ossoff at $23,036.

The Republican side has firmed. JD Vance is 50.25% for the nomination on Polymarket and 44.5% on Kalshi, up from 43% on both, with Marco Rubio down to 15.45% and 17.5%.

Polymarket has JD Vance at 20.65%, Ocasio-Cortez at 13.15%, Ossoff at 11.05%, Rubio at 8.95% and Newsom at 7.85%. Kalshi has Vance at 19.5%, Ossoff at 11.5%, Ocasio-Cortez at 9.2%, Newsom at 8.2% and Rubio at 7.85%.

The five-point gap on Vance that defined this row in September has closed to about one, and Rubio has faded on both books. The disagreement is now on the Democratic side: Polymarket makes Ocasio-Cortez the second-likeliest president, four points above Kalshi's price, while Kalshi puts Ossoff second.

The two names this page has followed since it was built, priced on both exchanges. Vance is the general-election favorite on both: 20.65% on Polymarket, 19.5% on Kalshi. Ocasio-Cortez is 13.15% on Polymarket and 9.2% on Kalshi, the widest cross-exchange gap among the leaders, and her Polymarket leg took only $613 of a $691,712 day.

A consistency check on Polymarket's own numbers: Ocasio-Cortez at 16.55% for the nomination and 13.15% for the presidency implies she wins 79% of the general elections she reaches. Vance at 50.25% and 20.65% implies 41%. Against each other, those two cannot both hold.

The four nominee books, two exchanges each. The Democratic field is a three-way race with no agreed leader: Ocasio-Cortez 16.55 / Newsom 16.25 / Ossoff 14.6 on Polymarket, Ossoff 16.5 / Newsom 13.5 / Ocasio-Cortez 13.5 on Kalshi. Kamala Harris is fourth on both at about 7.3%; fifth is Josh Shapiro at 6.05% on Polymarket and Andy Beshear at 6.15% on Kalshi.

The Republican field is Vance's. He is 50.25% on Polymarket and 44.5% on Kalshi, with Rubio at 15.45% and 17.5% and nobody else above 5%. That six-point spread on Vance is the largest cross-exchange gap in the four books.

Kalshi's matchup Categorical prices specific general-election pairings rather than individual candidates. Newsom v. Vance leads at 15%, then Ocasio-Cortez v. Vance at 11.5%, Ocasio-Cortez v. Rubio at 8.2%, and Ossoff v. Vance and Harris v. Vance at 7.3% each. The book turned $7,046, and $2,034 of it went to Ocasio-Cortez v. Rubio.

It is the only place on either exchange to read the joint distribution rather than two marginals. It still ranks a Newsom pairing first and an Ossoff pairing fourth, the reverse of Kalshi's own nominee book, where Ossoff leads Newsom by three points.

• Ossoff. First on Kalshi's nomination book at 16.5%, third on Polymarket's at 14.6% with the most flow, and second on Kalshi's general-election book. He is also on the ballot this November in the Georgia Senate race; that result is the next scheduled information for this field.
• Two exchanges, two Democratic leaders. Ocasio-Cortez by 0.3 points on Polymarket, Ossoff by three on Kalshi, on books turning over about $430,000 a day each. Watch which one moves.
• Vance at 50.25% and 44.5%. The Republican nomination is the largest cross-exchange gap on the page, nearly six points, while the two general-election books now agree on him to about a point.
• The conditional probabilities do not reconcile. Polymarket's pairs imply Ocasio-Cortez wins 79% of the generals she reaches and Vance 41%.
• The matchup book lags the nominee books. Newsom v. Vance leads at 15% on $12 of volume; the day's money was on Ocasio-Cortez v. Rubio.
• The midterms are the first real information event. November 3, 2026 is five weeks out; Election Day 2028 is November 7, 2028.