2028 Presidential Election

The 2028 presidential cycle is the deepest long-dated political market on either exchange: $2,109,872 a day on Kalshi's Democratic nominee book, $1,576,335 on Polymarket's, $1,789,328 on Kalshi's Republican book, $2,071,749 on Kalshi's general-election book and $1,046,031 on Polymarket's. Nothing here settles before November 2028.

Jon Ossoff won reelection to the Senate in Georgia on November 3, and the Democratic nomination now has one leader on both exchanges. Polymarket has Ossoff at 26.65%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.55% and Gavin Newsom at 10.25%. Kalshi has Ossoff at 25.5%, Ocasio-Cortez at 13.5% and Newsom at 11.5%. A week earlier the books had different leaders: Ossoff on Polymarket at 17.15%, Newsom on Kalshi at 15.5%.

Flow is spread on Kalshi. Newsom took $107,381, Ocasio-Cortez $102,655 and Ossoff $97,781. On Polymarket Ossoff took $82,545, more than twice Newsom's $37,378.

The Republican side has a third name. JD Vance is 30.75% for the nomination on Polymarket and 33.5% on Kalshi, Marco Rubio 18.35% and 17.5%, and Ron DeSantis has moved up to 16.45% and 16.5%.

Polymarket has JD Vance and Jon Ossoff tied at 17.35%, then Ocasio-Cortez at 11.15%, Rubio at 9.25% and Newsom at 8.15%. Kalshi has Ossoff in front at 19.5%, then Vance at 12.5%, Ocasio-Cortez at 9.75%, Rubio at 9.4% and Newsom at 8.35%.

The exchanges now disagree on Vance by 4.85 points, the widest gap among the leaders, and Ossoff is 2.15 points higher on Kalshi. Ossoff's Polymarket leg took $59,039 of that book's $1,046,031 day; on Kalshi, Rubio's leg took the most, $164,935 of $2,071,749.

The two names this page has followed since it was built, priced on both exchanges. Vance is no longer the general-election favorite on either: 17.35% on Polymarket, level with Ossoff, and 12.5% on Kalshi, second to Ossoff's 19.5%; his Kalshi leg took $9,384. Ocasio-Cortez is 11.15% on Polymarket and 9.75% on Kalshi, on $4,011 and $40,359.

A consistency check on each exchange's own numbers. On Polymarket, Ocasio-Cortez at 15.55% for the nomination and 11.15% for the presidency implies she wins 72% of the general elections she reaches, Ossoff 65% and Vance 56%. On Kalshi, Ossoff at 25.5% and 19.5% implies 76%, and Vance at 33.5% and 12.5% just 37%. If Ossoff and Vance were to meet, those two figures could not both hold.

The four nominee books, two exchanges each. The Democratic field now has one leader: Ossoff 26.65 / Ocasio-Cortez 15.55 / Newsom 10.25 on Polymarket, Ossoff 25.5 / Ocasio-Cortez 13.5 / Newsom 11.5 on Kalshi. Behind them are Pete Buttigieg at 5.55% and Kamala Harris at 5.15% on Polymarket, Harris at 5.35% and Buttigieg at 5.25% on Kalshi.

The Republican field is still Vance's, by less, and now three deep. He is 30.75% on Polymarket and 33.5% on Kalshi, with Rubio at 18.35% and 17.5% and DeSantis at 16.45% and 16.5%. The busiest Republican leg among the top five on Kalshi was John McEntee at 4.15%, with $509,456, more than Vance's $180,833; on Polymarket it was Brian Kemp at 4.45%, with $71,360.

Kalshi's matchup Categorical prices specific general-election pairings rather than individual candidates. Ossoff v. Rubio now leads at 9.75%, then Ossoff v. Vance at 9.35%, Newsom v. Vance at 8.05%, Ocasio-Cortez v. Vance at 6.45% and Ocasio-Cortez v. Rubio at 4.65%. The book turned $3,178, $370 of it on Ossoff v. Vance and $285 on Ossoff v. Rubio.

It is the only place on either exchange to read the joint distribution rather than two marginals. A week earlier it ranked Newsom v. Vance first; it has followed the nominee books to Ossoff, whose pairings with the two Republican leaders now hold the top two places.

• Ossoff after Georgia. He won reelection in the Georgia Senate race on November 3 and now leads both Democratic nomination books, at 26.65% and 25.5%, and Kalshi's general-election book at 19.5%.
• Vance tied on Polymarket, second on Kalshi. 17.35% and 12.5% for the presidency, a 4.85-point gap between the exchanges.
• DeSantis on the board. 16.45% and 16.5% for the Republican nomination, just behind Rubio's 18.35% and 17.5%.
• The conditional probabilities do not reconcile. Kalshi's pairs imply Ossoff wins 76% of the generals he reaches and Vance 37%; Polymarket's imply 65% and 56%.
• The matchup book has followed. Ossoff v. Rubio leads at 9.75% and Ossoff v. Vance is 9.35%, on a book that turned $3,178.
• The long wait. The midterms are behind the market; Election Day 2028 is November 7, 2028.