World Leader Turnover 2026

Prediction markets price national leadership as a portfolio, and this workspace collects the books that do it. Polymarket runs a dated ladder on Vladimir Putin leaving the Russian presidency; Kalshi runs a multi-name board on which leaders leave office in 2026. Between them they cover most of the G20 plus a long tail of smaller states.

The pattern on the Putin book has not changed since the summer: the money trades the nearest date, not the likeliest one. The book turned $142,246 in the last day, and $120,776 of it, 85%, was on December 31, 2026, which prices at 1.55%. March 31, 2027 at 6% took $19,659; June 30, 2027, the likeliest leg at 8.5%, took $1,811.

With about seven weeks left in the year, most 2026 legs keep running down across this page: Putin is 2.3% on Kalshi, Merz near 3% on both exchanges and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 1.55%. The exception is Benjamin Netanyahu, the board's largest leading position, who has more than doubled to 48.5% after Israel's October 27 election left his bloc short of a majority.

The two anchor books, side by side. On the left, Polymarket's dated Putin ladder: 1.55% by the end of this year, 6% by March 2027 and 8.5% by June 2027, from 1.95%, 5% and 8.5% at the last review. On the right, Kalshi's leaders-out board, which asks the same question about the whole world at once and settles January 1, 2027; its top names are now Benjamin Netanyahu at 48.5%, up from 22.5%, Pedro Sánchez at 14%, and Sébastien Lecornu and Edi Rama at 8% each. Christopher Luxon, who led at 45%, is down to 7.95% after New Zealand's November 7 election left his coalition on course for a narrow second term, with final results due November 27.

On Putin the two remain close: Polymarket's year-end leg is 1.55% and Kalshi's is 2.3%.

The same outcome on each anchor, priced directly. Polymarket's December 31 leg at 1.55% took $120,776 in the last day. Kalshi's Putin leg at 2.3%, down from 2.5%, traded $27, on 323,272 of open interest, a larger position than any of the board's five leading names holds.

The gap is under a point, as it was at the last review; Kalshi's price keeps tracking the venue that trades.

Where the two exchanges disagree, and by how much. Friedrich Merz is the clean case: Polymarket runs a dated book on the German chancellor leaving, and its year-end leg is now 2.6% on $24,781; Kalshi's leg on the same person in the same window prices 3.25% and did not trade.

In October the gap was seven points, and in September it ran the other way. Both prices now sit near 3%, about two-thirds of a point apart, with Polymarket the venue doing the trading.

Elsewhere on Kalshi's board, the busiest leader was Benjamin Netanyahu, $2,186 of the board's $2,702, as his price rose to 48.5%; his leg holds 162,847 of open interest, the most among the board's leading names. Pedro Sánchez is 14% and Sébastien Lecornu 8%.

The regional and structural books. Italy has its own board running to 2028, and Giorgia Meloni leads it clearly: 48.5%, with Elly Schlein at 20%, Giuseppe Conte 15% and Roberto Vannacci 6%. It did not trade in the last day. The G7 board asks which G7 leader goes next: Emmanuel Macron at 69.5%, with Meloni at 13.5% and Friedrich Merz at 11.5%.

Note what the G7 question is. It asks who goes next, not who goes soon: Macron can lead it comfortably while Kalshi's 2026 board doesn't put him among its leading names; French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu is there at 8%.

The tail risks that would force leadership change rather than reflect it. Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 1.55%, down from 1.85%, and that single binary took $96,254 in the last day, more than thirty times Kalshi's whole leaders-out board. Alongside it, the African leaders board, a very long-dated book running to 2035 that did not trade: Bola Tinubu leads at 29.5%, with Cyril Ramaphosa at 15.5%, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 5.85%, and William Ruto and John Mahama 5.25% each.

These two are the outer edges of the question this page asks throughout: how much political discontinuity does the market expect, and is it paying for the ordinary kind or the catastrophic kind?

• 85% of the Putin book on the year-end leg. $120,776 on December 31, 2026 at 1.55%, against $1,811 on the 8.5% June 2027 leg.
• Putin, 1.55% against 2.3%. The two exchanges stay within a point.
• Merz, 2.6% against 3.25%. Close, with Polymarket doing the trading.
• Netanyahu at 48.5%, up from 22.5%, now leads Kalshi's board and is its busiest leg, as coalition talks follow Israel's October 27 election.
• Luxon at 7.95%, from 45%, with New Zealand's final election results due November 27.
• Taiwan at 1.55% took more than thirty times the money of Kalshi's whole leaders-out board.
• Read "next" and "soon" as different questions. Macron is 69.5% to be the next G7 leader out; that is not a price on him leaving this year.
• January 1, 2027. Kalshi's 2026 board and every year-end leg here settle together.