WNBA 2026 Championship

Kalshi's WNBA title book turned $343,760 in a day on $3.8M of open interest, and the busiest leg was not the favorite. New York at 6% took $107,593, nearly a third of the day. Minnesota leads at 44% on $43,189; Atlanta is second-busiest at 12% on $54,725.

Polymarket prices Minnesota at 47% on $41,737, three points richer on roughly the same flow. Eight teams remain open on Kalshi's board.

Kalshi and Polymarket sit three points apart on Minnesota. Manifold's book has no volume and lumps most of the field into Other at 65.2%, so read it as a shape rather than a price.

The favorite and three teams the flow is chasing. Minnesota 44%, Golden State 14%, Indiana 10%, New York 6%. Indiana turned $31,292 and New York $107,593: the two cheapest of the four took the most money.

MVP is priced as decided: A'ja Wilson at 98%, and the flow sits on the long shots—Olivia Miles at 2% ($6,767), Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark at 1% ($5,106 and $4,698). Rookie of the Year is the same story with less money: Olivia Miles at 99% on a board that turned $214.

Left: Kalshi's Finals-qualifier board—Minnesota 71%, Las Vegas 48%, Golden State 41%, Atlanta 25%. Right: Polymarket's Defensive Player of the Year, where Angel Reese leads at 73.6% but Gabby Williams at 28% took more of the day's $5,242.

Kalshi's title book settles December 1, Polymarket's November 15. Finals qualifiers settle November 1.

• New York's $107,593 at 6%. The largest flow on the board, on one of the cheapest teams still open. Either a position is being built or one is being closed.
• Minnesota at 44% on Kalshi and 47% on Polymarket. A three-point gap on the favorite is wide for a book this deep.
• Las Vegas at 48% to reach the Finals but 14% to win them, the widest gap between the two boards.