Wisconsin Governor 2026 — Crowley vs Tiffany

The gap stayed closed, and the money moved to the underdog. For weeks this page tracked two Kalshi books pricing the same outcome twenty points apart. They now agree: the head-to-head prices David Crowley at 79.5% and the margin ladder prices Democrats, 1+ pts at 78.0%. A point and a half.

But the open interest has crossed over. Tom Tiffany at 20.5% now holds $216,338—more than Crowley's $214,518 at 79.5%—and Tiffany took $2,470 of the day's $3,476 against Crowley's $1,006. The book's price says one thing and its position and its flow both say the other, in a race the same book calls a four-to-one favourite.

The winner book holds $430,856 and traded $3,476—124 to 1—and the margin ladder traded $170 against $14,156 held. The turnout ladder traded nothing at all today, on $560 of open interest.

The August recount contract has closed and sits on the board unmarked at 50.0% with $10,949 behind it—six times the entire turnout ladder's open interest, on a question August already settled.

Anchor: Kalshi—Wisconsin Governor winner? · settles after November 3.

Three live books that put the race in context.

Turnout. Kalshi's cumulative general-election turnout ladder prices Above 2.6M at 74%, Above 2.8M at 46.5%, Above 2.9M at 33.5% and Above 3.2M at 12.5%—a central estimate near 2.79 million, against 2022's roughly 2.6 million. It holds $560 and traded $25.

Closest governor's race. Polymarket's board puts Wisconsin at 11.7%, third behind Ohio (13.7%) and Iowa (11.75%) and level with Georgia. A race the winner books price at 4-to-1 is still among the four most likely to be the tightest in the country—which is another way of saying the margin ladder's four-point central estimate is the number to watch, not the 78.5%.

Wisconsin manufacturing employment. The state's 2026 manufacturing-jobs book turned $10,650 today—nearly six times the governor's race—and prices Above 455,000 jobs at 56.5%. Its busiest leg by far is Above 462,500 at 4.5%, on $4,553. The economic question that decides Wisconsin races trades better than the race itself.

The general election on three exchanges. Kalshi prices Crowley at 78.5%, Polymarket at 80.5%, Manifold's binary at 80%. The spread across three venues is two points—as tight as this race has been priced all cycle.

The two nominees and the margin ladder. The ladder no longer contradicts the head-to-head: Democrats, 1+ pts at 77.5% against Crowley's 78.5%.

Further out it stays orderly—4+ pts 47%, 7+ pts 22.5%, 10+ pts 11.5%, 13+ pts 7.95%, 16+ pts 2.55%—which implies a central estimate of roughly a four-point Democratic win. That is meaningfully narrower than an 78.5% win probability would casually suggest, and it is the more informative of the two books now that they agree on direction.

The twenty-point gap closed to one. Democrats, 1+ pts came up to 77.5% against Crowley's 78.5%. The workspace's standing question is answered: the margin ladder was the one that was wrong, and it corrected rather than the head-to-head. Watch whether it holds or overshoots.

Three venues inside two points. Kalshi 78.5%, Polymarket 80.5%, Manifold 80%. Cross-exchange dispersion on this race is now smaller than the bid-ask on most of these books.

A four-point central estimate in a four-to-one race. The margin ladder implies roughly a four-point Democratic win, and Polymarket ranks Wisconsin among the four likeliest closest races in the country. Those two facts sit uncomfortably next to a 78.5% win probability.

$425,993 held against $1,824 traded. A 234-to-1 ratio on the Kalshi winner book, with Polymarket doing five times the volume on half the open interest. The price discovery and the position are on different exchanges.

A recount contract at 0.5% holding $10,949. Twenty times the turnout ladder's open interest, zero volume. If the margin ladder's four-point estimate is right, that contract is underpriced—and nobody is trading it either way.

The recount contract has closed. Kalshi's Will Wisconsin order a Democratic governor primary recount in Aug 2026? is over—the window has passed—and it leaves the board carrying $10,949 on a question the calendar has answered, still quoted at the 50.0% midpoint, never re-marked. No successor has listed.

In its place, the live coin flip in this race: Democrats, 4+ pts at 47.5% on the margin ladder. It holds $2,581 in a chain carrying $14,156 total, and it is the only rung anywhere on this page that sits genuinely near even money.

Polymarket's margin board carries a few hundred dollars and traded nothing—its rungs are quoted from the Republican tail up through Democrat 0–3% with no live two-sided market anywhere in it.