Wisconsin Governor 2026 — Crowley vs Tiffany

David Crowley is priced near four to one on every venue: 79.5% on Kalshi, 81.5% on Polymarket and 84% on Manifold, against Republican Tom Tiffany. The Kalshi price has not moved since mid-September.

The open interest has kept crossing to the underdog. Tiffany at 20.5% now holds $457,601, twice Crowley's $229,290 at 79.5%; in mid-September the two legs were level at about $215,000 each. Tiffany also took $427 of the day's $692.

Almost nothing trades. The winner book holds $686,892 and turned $692. The margin ladder turned $13 against $17,249 held, and the turnout ladder and the manufacturing-jobs board did not trade at all.

Anchor: Kalshi—Wisconsin Governor winner? · settles after November 3.

Three books that put the race in context.

Polymarket's margin board has no favorite: Crowley 3–6% at 28.5%, 0–3% at 22.5%, 6–9% at 19.5%, 9–12% at 16.5%, and Tiffany 0–3% at 9%, on $86.

Turnout. Kalshi's cumulative general-election turnout ladder prices Above 2.6M at 57%, Above 2.8M at 37%, Above 2.9M at 28.5% and Above 3.2M at 8%, a central estimate a little under 2.7 million, down from about 2.79 million in mid-September. It holds $1,179 and did not trade today.

Wisconsin manufacturing employment. The state's 2026 manufacturing-jobs board prices Above 455,000 jobs at 63.5% and Above 457,500 at 41.5%. It holds $18,825 and did not trade today.

Polymarket's closest-governor's-race board, which used to sit here, is no longer listed and has come off the page.

The general election on three exchanges. Kalshi prices Crowley at 79.5%, Polymarket at 81.5%, Manifold's binary at 84%. The spread across three venues is four and a half points, wider than the two points of mid-September, with Manifold the outlier.

The two nominees and the margin ladder. The ladder sits a little below the head-to-head: Crowley, 1+ pts at 73.5% against Crowley's 79.5% to win.

Further out it is orderly: 4+ pts 53%, 7+ pts 32%, 10+ pts 16%, 13+ pts 6.9%. That implies a central estimate of a four-to-five-point Democratic win, up from about four points in mid-September, and it is the more informative of the two books: a 79.5% win probability resting on a mid-single-digit margin.

Twice the open interest on the underdog. Tiffany's 20.5% leg holds $457,601 to Crowley's $229,290, and the gap has opened since mid-September without moving the price.

Three venues inside five points. Kalshi 79.5%, Polymarket 81.5%, Manifold 84%.

A four-to-five-point central estimate in a four-to-one race. Crowley, 4+ pts at 53% is the live question; the margin, not the 79.5%, is the number to watch.

$686,892 held against $692 traded. A thousand-to-one ratio on the Kalshi winner book.

Turnout expectations have come down. Above 2.8M is 37%, from 46.5% in mid-September.

The nearest thing to even money on this page is Crowley, 4+ pts at 53% on Kalshi's margin ladder, up from 47.5% in mid-September. It holds $3,073 in a chain carrying $17,249 in total, and took $12 of the ladder's $13 today.

The August primary-recount contract that this section used to describe has closed and is no longer on the page.