When the Wheel breaks

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

The Wheel collects premium in quiet markets. This workspace looks at the other case: XLF falling sharply before November 6, 2026. The underlying was chosen to illustrate the idea; it isn't a recommendation. Quotes are delayed. Contracts last selected September 28, 2026.

The forecast range is set to a fall of 25% to 35%. Read Lowest and Highest: the premium softens the loss, and not by much.

Compare the loss with the trade above. The difference is the premium. Then read Probability: the model's chance of a fall this large. It's tiny, often small enough to show as 0%. That isn't the real chance: the model assumes a lognormal distribution, which understates how often markets fall this far.

Read the lesson: When the Wheel breaks. Models, not forecasts, and not investment advice: Disclosures & Model Limits.