Waymo and Robotaxi Expansion 2026

Two exchanges price which cities Waymo operates in by the end of 2026, and since mid-September both have marked the list down.

The cities that looked settled are no longer priced that way. On Kalshi, San Diego has gone from 90% to 81%, Tampa from 94% to 78.5% and Las Vegas from 85.5% to 77%. Sacramento, an even-money city in September at 54%, is 11.5%. Denver alone has held, at 84.5%.

Polymarket has made the same move. Denver 85.5%, San Diego 78%, Tampa 76.35%, Las Vegas 74.5%: each within three points of Kalshi. In September the two books agreed on the liquid cities and disagreed by twenty-five points on the thin ones; the four leaders are now the only cities either board prices above 25%.

The count board says the same thing in one number. Polymarket's board on how many cities Waymo operates in centered on 16–19 at 51.5% in September. It now has 12–15 at 57.8% and fewer than 12 at 38.15%, with 16–19 down to 5.45%.

The trading has gone with it. Kalshi's city board turned $7,703 today against $170,900 on the day this page was last reviewed; Polymarket's turned $800. Denver still holds $107,091 of Kalshi's $229,175 of open interest.

One book moved the other way. Manifold's ladder on Tesla's robotaxi fleet has at least 1,000 vehicles at 85.4%, up from 32%.

The same question on two exchanges, side by side.

Kalshi's board turns $7,703 on $229,175 held. Denver 84.5%, San Diego 81%, Tampa 78.5%, Las Vegas 77%, then Sacramento at 11.5%.

Polymarket's board turns $800 on $15,564 held. Denver 85.5%, San Diego 78%, Tampa 76.35%, Las Vegas 74.5%, then Philadelphia at 23.5%.

The four leading cities agree inside three points on both books, in the same order. Below them the boards list different cities and neither prices any of them above one in four. Kalshi is the deeper book by a factor of fifteen in open interest; on today's flow the two are both close to idle.

The city holding nearly half of Kalshi's book, and the one both venues have marked down together.

Denver is 84.5% on Kalshi and 85.5% on Polymarket, about where both stood in September, and holds $107,091 of Kalshi's $229,175 of open interest. It traded $146 today; on the day this page was last reviewed it took $100,113.

San Diego was the control in September, exactly 90% on both exchanges. It is now 81% on Kalshi and 78% on Polymarket: the two books moved it down nine and twelve points and still sit within three points of each other.

How many cities, and which states: the two count boards.

Polymarket's count board has dropped a bracket. 12–15 cities is 57.8% and fewer than 12 38.15%; 16–19, the favorite at 51.5% in September, is 5.45%, and 20–23 is 0.4%. The board turned $380, all of it on 12–15.

Kalshi's robotaxi-states board has come down too. Nevada prices 70%, down from 86.5%, Arizona 51.5%, down from 76.5%, and Georgia 21%, down from 37%, on $36.

California prices 5.5% while holding $11,178, the deepest position in the book. Whatever definition of "offered to" that contract uses, it is not the one a reader would assume of a state where robotaxis already carry passengers. Read the rules before the price.

Manifold is the third venue, and it asks the questions the other two do not.

Waymo expanding into Marin County by year end prices 59.1%, up from 54.7%, on $1,114: the only contract on this page about a specific service-area extension rather than a whole city.

And Manifold's ladder on Tesla's robotaxi fleet has moved up sharply. At least 500 vehicles is 93%, up from 69.1%; 1,000 is 85.4%, up from 32%; 10,000 is 15.3%, up from 3.4%; 100,000 is 2.8% and a million 1%. It turned $161, so these are closer to quotes than prices, but the ladder is still cleanly ordered and it has moved in the opposite direction from the Waymo boards.

• Both exchanges have marked Waymo's 2026 list down. San Diego, Tampa and Las Vegas are 77% to 81% on Kalshi, from 85.5% to 94% in September; Polymarket is within three points on each.
• Sacramento at 11.5%. It was 54% in September and is the largest single move on the page.
• Denver at 84.5% and 85.5%. The one city that has held, with nearly half of Kalshi's open interest.
• The count board centers on 12–15 cities, with fewer than 12 at 38.15%. In September it centered on 16–19.
• The states board followed. Nevada 70% and Arizona 51.5%, each down more than fifteen points.
• California prices 5.5% and holds the deepest position in that book. The contract's definition is doing work the price does not explain.
• Manifold's Tesla ladder has moved the other way, 1,000 vehicles at 85.4% from 32%, on very little volume.
• Volume has dried up. $7,703 on Kalshi and $800 on Polymarket: these are prices nobody is contesting today.
• All three city boards settle in the first week of January. Check each board's rules text before trading; the two exchanges list different cities below the top four.