Waymo and Robotaxi Expansion 2026

Two exchanges price which cities Waymo operates in by the end of 2026, and they agree on the same two leaders.

On Kalshi, Denver is 75.5%, down from 87% a week earlier, and Las Vegas 66%, down from 79%. Detroit is 5.5%, and Washington and Sacramento 3.5%.

Polymarket lines up the same way. Denver 73.65%, Las Vegas 69%, then Detroit at 8% and Chicago and Minneapolis at 4.5%. The two leading cities are the only ones either board prices above 25%. Local reports have Waymo opening public rides in Denver on September 1 and invite-only rides in Las Vegas on September 14, yet both trade well below 100%: read each board's rules.

The count board has tightened again. Polymarket's board on how many cities Waymo operates in has 12–15 at 82.7%, up from 59%, with 16–19 at 14.25%.

Trading is thin. Kalshi's city board turned $7,255 in 24 hours; Polymarket's $650. Denver holds $103,707 of Kalshi's open interest.

Manifold's Tesla ladder held. At least 1,000 vehicles is 90%.

The same question on two exchanges, side by side.

Kalshi's board turns $7,255. Denver 75.5%, Las Vegas 66%, then Detroit at 5.5%, Washington 3.5% and Sacramento 3.5%; Washington took the most of the day, $1,124.

Polymarket's board turns $650. Denver 73.65%, Las Vegas 69%, then Detroit at 8%, Chicago 4.5% and Minneapolis 4.5%.

The two leading cities agree within about three points on both books, and Detroit is third on both. Below Detroit the two exchanges list different cities.

The city holding most of Kalshi's book, and the one next behind it.

Denver is 75.5% on Kalshi and 73.65% on Polymarket, each down about eleven points in a week, and holds $103,707 of Kalshi's open interest. It traded about $21 on Kalshi in 24 hours.

Las Vegas is 66% on Kalshi and 69% on Polymarket, on $222 and $12: still the only leading city where Polymarket is the more confident of the two.

How many cities, and which states: the two count boards.

Polymarket's count board has tightened back. 12–15 cities is 82.7%, 16–19 14.25%, 20–23 0.9% and fewer than 12 0.65%. The board turned $6,629, with 12–15 the busiest leg at $2,981.

Kalshi's robotaxi-states board barely trades. Arizona, the state nearest even, prices 46.5%, Nevada 62.5% and Georgia 12%, on $597.

California prices 1.5%, in a state where robotaxis already carry passengers, and holds $10,931 of open interest. Whatever definition of "offered to" that contract uses, it is not the one a reader would assume. Read the rules before the price.

Manifold is the third venue, and it asks the questions the other two do not.

Waymo expanding into Marin County by year end prices 30.49%, down from 36.08%, on $50 of play money: the only contract on this page about a specific service-area extension rather than a whole city.

Manifold's ladder on Tesla's robotaxi fleet has at least 500 vehicles at 96% and 1,000 at 90%; 10,000 is 4.87%, 100,000 2.41% and a million 1%. It turned about $60 of play money, so these are closer to quotes than prices.

• Denver at 75.5% and 73.65%. The deepest position on Kalshi's board, down from 87% a week earlier.
• Las Vegas at 66% and 69%, the next city on both boards.
• Detroit at 5.5% and 8%, third on both.
• The count board has 12–15 cities at 82.7%, up from 59%.
• The states board. Arizona 46.5% and Nevada 62.5%, on $597.
• California prices 1.5% on the states board. The contract's definition is doing work the price does not explain.
• Manifold's Tesla ladder: 1,000 vehicles at 90%, 10,000 at 4.87%.
• Settlement. Polymarket's boards settle January 1 and Kalshi's city board January 8. Check each board's rules text before trading; the two exchanges list different cities below the top three.