Vermont Governor 2026

Vermont elects a governor on November 3. Phil Scott is 82.5% on Kalshi and 83% on Polymarket against Democrat Amanda Janoo at 17.5% and 16.75%. Kalshi's board turned $103,721 today on $255,622 of open interest—more than most Senate books on the exchange.

The money is on the underdog. $32,504 of Kalshi's day went to Janoo at 17.5%, and on Polymarket her leg took $6,610 of a $7,448 day—89%.

And the margin boards do not price a Scott landslide. Scott won each of his last two races by more than forty points. Polymarket's single most likely outcome is Scott by 0–5 points, at 26%, then 5–10 at 23%; Kalshi prices Scott by 11 or more at 32.5%. The market expects him to win, and to win close.

Kalshi and Polymarket list the same two-candidate question and land within half a point—Scott 82.5% and 83%—with Manifold's single market also at 83%. Kalshi carries $255,622 of open interest against Polymarket's $37,391.

Both legs of Kalshi's board. Scott at 82.5% took $71,218; Janoo at 17.5% took $32,504—a third of the day on a leg priced at less than a fifth.

Kalshi's margin ladder: Scott by 11+ at 32.5%, 14+ at 22%, 20+ at 10.5%. Polymarket's buckets agree: Scott by 0–5 at 26%, 5–10 at 23%, 10–15 at 14.5%, and a Janoo win at 15.5%.

Kalshi's vote-share ladder for Janoo says the same thing from the other side: at least 42% at 69.5% and at least 45% at 45%—twenty points better than either of Scott's last two opponents. None of these boards is trading much, $200 on the margin ladder today, so read them as quotes rather than conviction.

Vermont elects its lieutenant governor separately, and the boards expect a split ticket. Molly Gray is 91.5% on Kalshi and 84% on Polymarket against Republican John S. Rodgers—a Democrat about as safe down-ballot as Scott is at the top.

Polymarket's boards settle on the November 3 result; Kalshi's governor board settles on certification in January.

• The underdog flow. 89% of Polymarket's day and a third of Kalshi's went to Janoo. Money that heavy on a 17% leg either moves the price or keeps being absorbed; so far it is being absorbed.
• The margin boards against history. Scott by forty-plus twice running, and a market whose most likely bucket is 0–5. Either the ladders are stale quotes or the race is materially closer than his record.
• Half a point between venues. Scott at 82.5% and 83%. The thin book moves first when polling lands.