Vermont Governor 2026

Vermont elects a governor on November 3. Phil Scott is 76.5% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket, up from 74.5% on both a week ago but still down from 82.5% and 83% at the end of September, against Democrat Amanda Janoo at 24.5% and 24.8%. Kalshi's board turned $1,748 today on $314,833 of open interest.

The money is still on the underdog, but the price has stopped following it. $1,423 of Kalshi's day went to Janoo, against $326 on Scott. Polymarket's day went the same way, $712 of $738 on Janoo.

And the margin boards do not price a Scott landslide. Scott won each of his last two races by more than forty points. Polymarket's most likely outcomes are Scott by 0–5 points at 28.5% and a Janoo win at 27%, then Scott by 5–10 at 21.5%; Kalshi prices a Republican win by 11 or more at 28%. The market expects him to win, and to win close.

Kalshi and Polymarket list the same two-candidate question and land a point apart—Scott 76.5% and 75.5%—with Manifold's single market at 77%. All three have recovered together from last week's lows. Kalshi carries $314,833 of open interest against Polymarket's $64,942.

Both legs of Kalshi's board. Scott at 76.5% took $326; Janoo at 24.5% took $1,423—more than four dollars in five on a leg priced at less than a quarter.

Kalshi's margin ladder: Republicans by 2+ at 70%, 5+ at 55.5%, 8+ at 40%, 11+ at 28% and 17+ at 17.5%. Polymarket's buckets agree: Scott by 0–5 at 28.5%, 5–10 at 21.5%, 10–15 at 17.5%, and a Janoo win at 27%.

Kalshi's vote-share ladder for Janoo says the same thing from the other side: at least 42% at 87%, at least 45% at 59.5% and at least 46% at 49%—far better than either of Scott's last two opponents. None of these boards is trading much, $190 on Polymarket's margin board and a few hundred dollars across Kalshi's ladders today, so read them as quotes rather than conviction.

Vermont elects its lieutenant governor separately, and the boards expect a split ticket. Molly Gray is 91% on both Kalshi and Polymarket against Republican John S. Rodgers at 7% and 7.5%—a Democrat safer down-ballot than Scott is at the top. Neither board traded today.

Polymarket's boards settle on the November 3 result; Kalshi's governor board settles on certification in January.

• The underdog flow against the price. Janoo's leg took more than four-fifths of Kalshi's day, yet Scott has recovered from 74.5% on both exchanges and 73% on Manifold. Whether that buying moves the price again is the open question.
• The margin boards against history. Scott by forty-plus twice running, and a market that prices a Janoo win within a point and a half of Scott by 0–5. Either the ladders are stale quotes or the race is materially closer than his record.
• Agreement between venues. Scott at 76.5% on Kalshi, 75.5% on Polymarket and 77% on Manifold. The thin book moves first when polling lands.