Venezuela leader 2026 — office vs power

Venezuela is the only topic on the supported exchanges where two books on the same exchange, about the same moment, give opposite answers, and the difference is not a mispricing. It is a definitional split.

Kalshi lists Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? and Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? side by side. The official book has Nicolás Maduro at 90.8%, up from 78.5%, with Delcy Rodríguez at 11.05%, down from 22.5%. The de facto book has Rodríguez at 95%, and Maduro is not among its top five legs, the lowest of which is 2%.

Polymarket moved with Kalshi. Its single book asks who leads, and has Maduro at 91.25% and Rodríguez at 7.5%, from 79.05% and 18%. The venues are under half a point apart on Maduro.

Read the volume before reading the prices. Kalshi's official book turned $43,035 in 24 hours, from $17,584, and Polymarket's $69,154, from $162,646. The de facto book turned $10, so its 95% is a standing quote rather than a live price.

The two Kalshi books, official on the left and de facto on the right. The official book is where Kalshi's flow is: $43,035 on $1,249,605 of open interest, with $8,649 on the Maduro leg, $5,313 on Rodríguez and $4,411 on Edmundo González at 1.55%. Its two leading legs add to about 102%. The de facto book turned $10, all of it on Rodríguez.

The official book settles on December 31 and the de facto book on January 8, both on the state of affairs at the end of 2026. Neither has a cross-exchange mirror that asks its specific question.

Maduro holds the office at 90.8% on Kalshi and 91.25% on Polymarket, under half a point apart. Rodríguez holds the power at 95% on Kalshi's de facto book and 7.5% on Polymarket's leadership book, a gap of 87.5 points, up from 75.5, that exists because the two contracts ask different questions.

If you only read one pair here, read the top one: Maduro's office at 90.8% beside Rodríguez's power at 95%, two near-certainties on the same venue that can both come true.

Polymarket's Categorical, $69,154 in 24 hours on $677,076 of open interest, down from $162,646. Maduro 91.25%, Rodríguez 7.5%, no head of state 0.85%, Machado 0.4%, Edmundo González 0.25%.

The money has moved to the long shots. Machado's leg took $14,003, González's $13,758 and no head of state $10,820, against $8,027 on Rodríguez and $5,688 on Maduro, down from $60,925.

Two adjacent books. Will the U.S. recognize María Corina Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31, a single Polymarket market, is a read on how far Washington's posture toward the opposition goes. It prices 1.85%, down from 5.9%, and did not trade in 24 hours, so that is a standing quote on $22,829 of open interest. It settles the same night as Polymarket's leadership book.

Beside it, Kalshi's What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Multiple, $10,730 in 24 hours. Israel now leads at 7.35%, ahead of Germany at 4.05% and Saudi Arabia and Qatar at 3.8%; Japan, the leader at 16% last time, is 3.45%. The Venezuela leg, 7.5% at the last review, is no longer among the top five. US posture is the main exogenous variable in every book above.

• The office and the power are priced as different things. Maduro 90.8% to officially lead; Rodríguez 11.05% officially, 95% de facto. Whether that is a real distinction or a labeling artifact determines how you read every other number here.
• Both venues firmed on Maduro. 90.8% on Kalshi and 91.25% on Polymarket, up from 78.5% and 79.05%, and still moving together.
• The de facto book barely trades. $10 in 24 hours. A 95% quote nobody is transacting against is not a price. Watch for real volume.
• U.S. recognition of Machado at 1.85%, untraded. With Machado at 1.95% on Kalshi's official book and 0.4% on Polymarket's, the markets give the opposition little chance of taking office this year, though her Polymarket leg took the most money of any, $14,003.
• No cross-exchange mirror asks the de facto question. Kalshi is the only venue that separates title from control.
• Settlement. Kalshi's official book settles December 31 at 10am ET, Polymarket's books at 11:59pm ET the same night, and Kalshi's de facto book January 8. A change in the final week of December could resolve them differently.