US Treasury Yield Curve 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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Kalshi's Friday tenor books have rolled to Friday, November 13 at 3:30 PM ET. Treasuries don't trade on the weekend, and none of the five books has traded or carries open interest yet.

Only the 7-year shows marks: 4.56% or above is 92.5% and 4.64% or above 85%. The 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year ladders, and the 10-year spotlight rung, show no price yet; the week's trading opens Monday, November 9.

Below the tenors: the Fed's December meeting, the 10-year's year-end close against its 2026 high and low, and the 10-year ladder's history.

No tenor book has traded. The 7-year is the only one quoted, and only on its lower rungs: 4.56% or above at 92.5%, 4.58% or above 91.5%, 4.6% or above 90.5%, 4.62% or above 89% and 4.64% or above 85%, so its center sits higher up the ladder. The 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year books have no marks yet. Read the weekly section as empty until the books quote.

The Fed raised 25bp on September 16 and held at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, so the post-meeting ladder here shows December 9. It turned $617 in 24 hours, and Above 3.75% at 97% says almost no one is pricing a cut by then. Polymarket's board gives a touch of 4.25% before 2027 at 72.2%, up from 68.85%.

Kalshi's year-end ladder prices a 10-year close at 5% or above at 38.5%, down from 57.5%, with 4.75% or above at 69%, 5.1% or above 31.5% and 5.15% or above 27%, on a $158.51 day; its center now sits between 4.75% and 5%. Polymarket's high-water board prices the yield touching 5.3% before 2027 at 23.5%, down from 30%, 5.4% at 7.5% and 5.5% at 5.1%, on $1,411. The low board has eased off the dip: below 4.8% is 68.5%, below 4.7% 43.5%, down from 55.5%, and below 4.6% 23%, on $196.60.

  • 3:30 PM ET Friday, November 13. All five tenor books settle; only the 7-year is quoted so far, and none has traded.
  • December 9. Kalshi's post-meeting ladder turned $617 with Above 3.75% at 97%; Polymarket prices a touch of 4.25% before 2027 at 72.2%.
  • The middle and long end. The 5- and 30-year ladders have no marks yet; the 7-year's 4.64% or above is 85%.
  • Year end. A 10-year close at 5% or above is 38.5% on Kalshi; on Polymarket a dip below 4.7% is 43.5% and a touch of 5.3% 23.5%.