US Treasury Yield Curve 2026

Kalshi's Friday tenor books have settled, and the next listed set settles Friday, October 9 at 3:30 PM ET. They have barely opened: the 10-year has turned $1,054 and the 30-year $500, in hundred-dollar clips, and the 2-, 5- and 7-year have not traded.

The rung to read is on the 10-year: 5.31% or above is marked at 47%, untraded, which puts the week's midpoint just under 5.31%, against a midpoint under 5.26% on last Friday's book. The 30-year's 5.54% or above is 74.5%.

The untraded ladders step down in even increments, the 2-year from 76% at 4.66% or above to 60% at 4.74% or above. Those are opening marks, not views.

Only the long end has printed. The 10-year's $1,054 and the 30-year's $500 went in equal $100 clips across the upper rungs: 5.11% or above through 5.19% or above on the 10-year, priced 79% to 87%, and 5.46% or above through 5.54% or above on the 30-year.

Both ladders are slightly out of order where they traded. On the 10-year, 5.15% or above is 86% against 84% for 5.13% or above; on the 30-year, 5.50% or above is 87% against 86% for 5.48% or above. Read thin rungs as marks, not prints. Last Friday's books turned about $30,800 across the five tenors; these should fill in as the week trades.

The Fed raised 25bp on September 16, to 3.75–4.00%. Kalshi's post-meeting book for October 28 turned $11,363 today, and Above 3.75% at 99% says no one is pricing a cut. Polymarket's year-end board gives a touch of 4.25% before 2027 at 73.35%, down from 77.85%, and of 4.5% at 17.3%, down from 27.95%.

Kalshi's year-end ladder prices a 10-year close at 5.25% or above at 63% on $136, and 5% or above at 76.5%, up from 58% and 69.5%. Polymarket's high-water board prices the yield touching 5.5% before 2027 at 42.45% and 5.7% at 17.05%, on a $9,112 day. A touch of 5.3% prices 87.5%, above the 63% for a 5.25% close, as it should. The low board is thin: a dip below 4.7% prices 21.5%, and $3,090 of its $4,451 day went to below 4.5% at 7.4%.

• 3:30 PM ET Friday, October 9. All five tenor books settle; the 10-year's 5.31% or above is marked at 47% and has not traded.
• The long end. The 10-year's implied midpoint is about five basis points above last Friday's book. The front-end ladders have no prints to compare.
• October 28. Kalshi's Fed book turned $11,363; Polymarket prices a touch of 4.25% before 2027 at 73.35%.
• Year end. A 5.25% close prices 63% on Kalshi, and Polymarket prices a 5.5% touch at 42.45%.
• The tenor books roll as each settles; this page moves with them.