US Treasury Yield Curve 2026

The 10-year book traded nothing at all in the last 24 hours. All five September 30 tenor books together turned $3,503: 2Y $630, 5Y $720, 7Y $1,300, 10Y , 30Y $853. Every rung on the 10Y ladder is a mark nobody has printed against.

Three of the ladders are now internally inconsistent. On a cumulative book, 4.75% or above cannot be more likely than 4.71% or above—but the 10Y has them at 80% and 71%, and 4.89% or above at 91% against 4.85% or above at 82%. The 7Y has 4.94% or above at 64% above 4.62% or above at 63%. These are not views; they are stale marks that have drifted past each other because nothing trades.

The policy front end absorbed everything. The Fed hiked 25bp on September 16 and the October meeting book turns $26,762 a day—roughly eight times the entire five-tenor curve—on a decision the market calls at 55% hold against 45% for a second hike.

Kalshi certified a 10-year Treasury yield perpetual future on September 1. Two weeks later the binary ladder on the same underlying has stopped trading entirely.

2Y $630 · 5Y $720 · 7Y $1,300 · 10Y · 30Y $853. That is the full 24-hour turnover of the September 30 curve.

The 10Y is the tenor everyone quotes and it is the one with no volume: every rung shows a live quote and a last price that has not moved. The 5Y and 7Y ladders trade in hundred-dollar clips at the top of the strike range and nothing in the middle.

Read the yields below as quotes, not as prints. The ordering violations above are the direct evidence for that distinction.

The tenor books are dark and the policy front end is where the money is.

KXFED-26OCT turns $26,762 a day, roughly eight times the whole five-tenor curve. It prices the post-October target as Above 3.75% at 99% and Above 4.00% at 48%—a clean coin flip on whether September's hike gets a sequel, quoted as a rate instead of a decision.

September already resolved. The Fed raised 25bp on the 16th and the target range is now 3.75–4.00%. Kalshi's October decision book has hold at 55% and a second 25bp at 45%; December, further out, has a hike at 69%.

Kalshi's year-end 10Y book and Polymarket's two range ladders are the only books on this page with a forward view worth reading, and they are thin.

The touch-versus-terminal bound is the structural check. Polymarket's touches 5.0% should always exceed Kalshi's ends above 5.0%, and the gap between them is the value of optionality on the path. When that ordering breaks, the quote is stale rather than informative—the same failure the tenor ladders above are now showing outright.

Watch the low ladder for the same defect. Consecutive dip rungs where the harder outcome is the richer one have persisted on this book for weeks, and they are a marking artifact, not a view about rates.

• The 10-year book traded in 24 hours. The whole September 30 curve turned $3,503 across five tenors. There is no daily curve on this exchange and the monthly one has stopped printing.
• Three ladders are internally impossible. 10Y: 4.75% or above at 80% over 4.71% or above at 71%; 4.89% at 91% over 4.85% at 82%. 7Y: 4.94% at 64% over 4.62% at 63%. Cumulative books cannot do this when they are being traded.
• The October Fed meeting outtrades the whole curve eight to one. $26,762 against $3,503.
• The Fed hiked on September 16 to 3.75–4.00%. Above 4.00% after October sits at 48%—the cleanest single read on this page.
• December is the committed print. A hike at the December 9 meeting trades at 69%, well above October's 45%.
• Kalshi certified a 10-year yield perpetual future on September 1. Watch whether it pulls flow into these ladders or finishes draining them.