US Jobs Report Tracker

The August employment report released this morning; every August contract has settled and the workspace now tracks the September report, due October 2.

Kalshi's two September unemployment books already contradict each other. The cumulative ladder prices Above 4.1% at 64.5% and Above 4.2% at 41.5%—which implies a 23% chance the print comes in at exactly 4.1%. The exact-value board quotes Exactly 4.1% at 38.5%. Fifteen and a half points apart, on the same number, on the same exchange, four weeks before the release.

The exact-value board is barely a market. Exactly 4.1% is quoted 0 bid, 0.77 ask. Exactly 4.4% is quoted 56.5%—higher than 4.1%—on a 0.13/1.00 spread. And eight rungs from 3.3% through 3.8% are marked at exactly 50.0% with no bids at all. The board sums far past 100% because most of it is rendering defaults rather than prices.

The cumulative ladder inverts too. Above 3.7% is 94.5%, Above 3.8% is 92.0%, Above 3.9% is 96.5%. A higher threshold cannot be more likely than a lower one, and here two are.

The year-scale book is the deepest and the most inverted. How high will unemployment get in 2026? holds $282,192 open on $8,358 a day. Above 6% prices 2.5% while Above 6.5%, half a point worse, prices 5.5%—and Above 5% at 3.75% holds the single largest position, $123,394. $8,187 of today's $8,358, 98%, bought Above 6% at 2.5%.

Payrolls for September price Above 125,000 at 15.5% and Above 70,000 at 40%—a soft-jobs distribution, and the read the Fed sees before its next decision.

Initial jobless claims (Sep 10), September payrolls, and the annual company-layoff board. The claims prints are the weekly texture between now and the monthly release.

The spotlight below is September Above 4.1% at 64.5%—the cumulative ladder's pivot, and the number the exact-value board disagrees with by fifteen points.

Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Sep 5 and September ADP are the two releases before the BLS report. Continuing claims has not traded a dollar and every rung is marked 50.0%—the same frozen-book pattern this workspace flagged on the August cycle.

How high will unemployment get in 2026? is the deepest book in the workspace and one of the deepest in the catalog. 98% of today's flow—$8,187—bought Above 6% at 2.5%. Above 6.5% prices 5.5%, more than double, and Above 5% at 3.75% holds $123,394, the largest single position.

Beside it, the September exact-value board, where eight rungs are marked 50.0% with no bid.

Fifteen points between two books on the same number. The cumulative ladder implies 23% on a 4.1% September print; the exact-value board quotes 38.5%. Both are Kalshi, both settle October 2. The cumulative book has the volume and the tighter spreads, so it is the one to read—but the gap is the workspace's headline and it has been present on every monthly cycle so far.

Two inversions. Above 3.9% above Above 3.8% on the September cumulative ladder; Above 6.5% above Above 6% on the year book. The second is on $282,192 of open interest, which makes it more than a curiosity.

The exact-value board is not tradeable. Eight rungs at 50.0% with no bids, spreads running the full width of the contract. Do not read implied probabilities off it.

October 2 is the date. Between now and then: initial claims each Thursday, continuing claims, and September ADP. The Fed's September 16 decision lands first, without a fresh jobs number after this morning's.