US Jobs Report Tracker

The September employment report printed October 2 and its boards have settled; this page tracks the October report, whose Kalshi boards settle November 6.

The unemployment ladder holds its shape. Above 4.1% is 69%, Above 4.0% 93.5% and Above 3.9% 96.5%, on $5,016 today, $2,006 of it on Above 4.1%.

The exact-value board centers on 4.2% at 39%, with 4.1% at 25% and 4.3% at 23%, on $322.

Payrolls turned $13,493. Above 0 prices 87%, about one chance in eight of a negative print, and Above 30,000 59.5%, down from 68.5%, the busiest rung at $9,754.

The year book prices unemployment reaching Above 5% in 2026 at 5.5%.

Initial claims for the week ending October 10, due Thursday, October 15, have opened on $5: At least 200,000 is 48.5%, with the rungs up to 190,000 at 99%. Beside it, the October unemployment ladder's Above 4.1% rung at 69%; below, October's payrolls and unemployment ladders.

Continuing claims for the week ending October 3 have rolled onto the page and turned $883: At least 1,710K is 50.5% and At least 1,690K 62%. October's ADP book is quiet, untraded today, with Above 50,000 at 69% and Above 75,000 at 51.5%.

How high will unemployment get in 2026? traded $275 today; Above 4.5% prices 13.5% and Above 5% 5.5%. Beside it, the exact-value board for October: 4.2% at 39%, 4.1% at 25%, 4.3% at 23%.

November 6. October's unemployment and payrolls boards settle together. The ladder puts a rate of 4.2% or higher at 69%, and the exact board's mode is 4.2%.

A negative payrolls print prices about 13%, and Above 30,000 has slipped to 59.5%.

Thursday, October 15: initial claims for the week ending October 10, on a board that has barely traded. Continuing claims for the week ending October 3 have At least 1,710K at 50.5%.