US Jobs Report Tracker

October's employment report came out Friday, November 6, at 8:30am ET, and the boards here price the November report, released Friday, December 4. The November boards settle at 10am ET that day.

The unemployment ladder: Above 4.1%, a rate of 4.2% or higher, is 45%, Above 4.0% 80.5% and Above 3.9% 97%, on $28,754 in 24 hours with $61,772 open.

The exact-value board has 4.2% at 35.5%, just ahead of 4.1% at 32.5%, then 4.0% at 16% and 4.3% at 7%, on $60.

Payrolls is thin, $1,324: Above 0 prices 94%, about one chance in seventeen of a negative print, and Above 30,000 79.5%.

The year book is quiet, $4 in 24 hours, with Above 4.5% at 4.5%. The countdown runs to December 4.

Left, Kalshi's initial-claims board for the week ending November 14, which settles with the Thursday, November 19 release, on $319: At least 195,000 is 55%, the rung nearest even, At least 190,000 79%, At least 185,000 91% and At least 180,000 96%. Beside it, the November unemployment ladder's Above 4.1% rung, at 45% on $37 in 24 hours with $2,051 open, for the December 4 report; below, November's payrolls and unemployment ladders.

The continuing-claims slot now shows the week ending November 7, which Kalshi lists to settle Thursday, November 26. The board hasn't traded yet: At least 1680K is marked 87% and At least 1640K through At least 1670K 93% to 96.5%, so read them as opening marks. November's ADP board, settling Wednesday, December 2, had no trade in the day and $517 open: Above 25,000 is 88%, Above 50,000 74% and Above 75,000 53%, nearest an even call.

How high will unemployment get in 2026? traded just $4 in 24 hours, on Above 5%, which quotes 2.95% and carries $124,620 open, the most of the rungs shown. Above 4.5% is 4.5%, and the rungs above it are slightly out of order on no trade: Above 5.5% quotes 3% and Above 4.8% 2.5%. Taken together, the book prices a 2026 high above 4.5% at about one in twenty. Beside it, the exact-value board for November, going into the December 4 report: 4.2% at 35.5%, with 4.1% at 32.5%, 4.0% at 16%, and 4.3% and 4.6% at 7% each, on $60.

Thursday, November 19: the initial-claims board for the week ending November 14 settles, with At least 195,000 at 55%.

Thursday, November 26: Kalshi's continuing-claims board for the week ending November 7 settles; it hasn't traded yet.

Wednesday, December 2: November's ADP board settles, with Above 75,000 at 53%.

Friday, December 4, 8:30am ET: the November jobs report, the countdown's target. The ladder puts a rate of 4.2% or higher at 45%, and the exact board's leader is 4.2% at 35.5%, just ahead of 4.1% at 32.5%. Payrolls prices a negative print at about 6% and Above 30,000 at 79.5%, on thin trade.