US Index Markets 2026

Both exchanges have rolled to Friday's close. Polymarket's next-session SPY board for October 9 has $775 at 72% and $780 at 20.5%, on $2,558. Kalshi's 4pm S&P ladder for the same close has 7,775 or above at 78% and 7,800 or above at 50%, on $7,910. Both put the close right around 7,800 on the index.

October's touch board has firmed again: ↑ $790 is 57.5%, up from 56%, and ↑ $780 89.5%. On the downside ↓ $770 is 76.5% and ↓ $760 48%, on $10,479.

Kalshi's 2026 ladders are where the positions are. Positive growth for the S&P this year trades 90.5% on $6,665; the year-high chain puts 8,000 or above at 62.5%, down from 70.4%, and the year-end close board, the busiest at $17,324, has 7,800 to 7,999.99 on top at 20%. The Nasdaq-100 close board puts 33,000.01 or above at 21.5%, down from 30%.

Top row: Polymarket's October touch board, left, and its October 9 close board, right, settling at 4pm ET Friday with $775 at 72% on $2,558. Below them, Kalshi's 4pm S&P ladder for the same close, on $7,910: 7,775 or above at 78% and 7,800 or above at 50%. It takes the place of a second copy of the year-high chain, which is still shown further down.

How far the S&P travels in 2026, rather than where it finishes. 8,000 or above on the high chain is 62.5%, down from 70.4%; 8,200 or above is 36.1% and 8,400 or above 15.4%, the busiest rung at $1,589 of the chain's $3,957 day. 6,300 or below on the low chain is 10.2%, up from 9.05%; 5,900 or below is 5.1%.

Nasdaq-100 18,999.99 or below: 1.5%, untraded today. S&P 3,999.99 or below: 1%, untraded. These rungs carry some of the deepest open positions on the page, 1,122,160 and 412,506 contracts, and they barely move day to day: they are standing hedges, not daily bets.

Polymarket's December touch board prices the S&P ↑ 8,000 at 55%, down from 63.5%, and ↓ 7,400 at 34%. Manifold's end-of-year close board gives ≥ 8,000 42%. A touch should price at or above the matching close, and Polymarket's does.

• Friday's close: both boards settle on the 4pm ET close. Polymarket has $775 at 72% and $780 at 20.5%; Kalshi has 7,775 or above at 78% and 7,800 or above at 50%.
• October's range: $790 up at 57.5%; $770 on the downside is 76.5% and $760 48%.
• 8,000 for the year: 62.5% to touch on Kalshi, 55% on Polymarket's touch board by December. The two boards settle on different instruments, and both have eased since Thursday.
• The year-end close: $17,324 on Kalshi's board, with 7,800 to 7,999.99 at 20% and 8,000 to 8,199.99 at 19.5%.