US Index Markets 2026

The day boards price Friday, November 13, and their listed strikes sit on the lower part of the ladders. Polymarket's SPY board prices the 4pm ET close that day and has turned $3,217: $730 is 98.85%, $740 98.1%, $745 94% and $750 88.5%, the busiest at $755. Kalshi's S&P ladder has rolled to the 2pm ET print that day and has barely traded, $2 in the past day: 7,460 or above through 7,490 or above quote 87% to 88%.

November's touch board has ↓ $750 at 68%, ↑ $770 at 56.5%, the leg nearest even, and ↓ $740 at 42%, on $1,447; ↑ $780 is 27.5% and ↓ $730 25.5%.

The year books: Kalshi's high chain has 8,000 or above at 28.5%, and its positive year contract is 93.5%, on $6,329.

Top row: Polymarket's November touch board, left, and its November 13 close board, right, settling at 4pm ET Friday: $730 at 98.85%, $735 98.75%, $740 98.1%, $745 94% and $750 88.5%, on $3,217 in the past day; $750 took the most, $755. Below them, Kalshi's S&P ladder for the 2pm ET print Friday, on $2 of trade and $2 open: 7,460 or above 88%, 7,475 or above and 7,490 or above 87.5%, 7,465 or above and 7,480 or above 87%, untraded quotes not in strict order. The listed rungs on both day boards are the lower part of their ladders; the open question sits on the strikes above them. The two settle two hours apart, so they are not the same print.

How far the S&P travels in 2026, rather than where it finishes. 8,000 or above on the high chain is 28.5%, and the busiest rung at $2,123 of a $4,462 day; 8,200 or above is 9.55%, 8,400 or above 2.65%, 8,600 or above 2.35% and 8,800 or above 1.9%, still in order. 6,300 or below on the low chain is 6.4%, also the busiest low rung at $3,881 of a $4,857 day; 6,200 or below is 4.85%, 6,100 or below 4.3%, 6,000 or below 4.2% and 5,900 or below 2.4%, so the low chain is in order too.

Nasdaq-100 18,999.99 or below: 1.5%, on $3,092 in 24 hours against $1.16 million of open interest. S&P 3,999.99 or below: 1%, on $952 in the past day against $444,500 of open interest. Their prices barely move: they are standing hedges, not daily bets.

Polymarket's December touch board prices the S&P ↑ $8,000 at 27%, untraded in 24 hours, and ↑ $8,200 at 11.5%, of a $600 day. On the downside, ↓ $7,200 is 29.5%, the busiest leg at $150, ↓ $7,000 22%, and ↓ $6,200 5.15%. Manifold's end-of-year close board gives ≥ 8,000 16.56% and ≥ 7,500 70.41%. Kalshi's high chain, at 28.5%, sits about a point and a half above Polymarket's touch; Polymarket's rungs trade thinly, so its quotes can move without trade.

Kalshi's day ladder settles on the 2pm ET print and Polymarket's SPY board on the 4pm ET close, both Friday, November 13; the November touch board settles at the end of Monday, November 30.

• Friday's close: SPY's listed strikes run from $730 at 98.85% to $750 at 88.5%.
• November's range: ↑ $770 at 56.5% is the leg nearest even; ↓ $750 is 68% and ↓ $740 42%.
• 8,000 for the year: 28.5% on Kalshi's high chain; Polymarket's December board has it at 27%.
• A positive year: 93.5% on Kalshi, on $6,329 in 24 hours.