US Energy Complex 2026 — gas, diesel and Texas power

Kalshi's gas ladder prices Friday, November 13, at 5pm ET, and anchors the page on $7,532 in 24 hours: Above $3.399 is 98%, Above $3.499 93.5% and Above $3.599 72%, the highest rung shown and the nearest even, so the midpoint sits above $3.60. The lower rungs, Above $2.899 through Above $3.299, are marked at 99%.

Polymarket's touch board for the week of November 9 is thin, $361 in 24 hours, and its direction contract for Friday, November 13 prices up at 15% on about $1.

Diesel follows: Kalshi's weekly board dated November 16. Texas power is next, then what to watch.

Left, Kalshi's November 13 ladder: Above $2.899 through Above $3.299 at 99%, with to $260 of trade each. The open question sits higher, past Above $3.599 at 72%, with Above $3.499 at 93.5%. The board has $22,336 open, and of the rungs shown here the $3.60 rung took the most of the day's $7,532, $627. Right, Polymarket's touch board for the week of November 9, on $361: none of the listed rungs traded in the day; ↓ $3.00 and ↓ $2.80 are marked at 50%, ↓ $2.90 49.5%, ↓ $3.20 37% and ↑ $3.40 13%, so read them as untested marks rather than a forecast. It settles at 6pm ET November 13.

Above $3.499 is 93.5% on $106 in 24 hours and $3,079 of open interest, so the ladder leans clearly toward a November 13 close above $3.50. Beside it, Polymarket's direction contract for Friday, November 13 prices up at 15% on about $1 of trade, too thin to read as a forecast; it settles at 6pm ET November 13.

Kalshi's weekly diesel board, dated November 16 and settling November 23, has turned $18,015 in 24 hours with $41,190 open. The rungs shown, Above $5.78 through Above $5.86, are all marked at 98.5% with no trade in the day; they are the board's floor, and the strikes nearer even sit higher on the ladder, where the day's trade went.

Left, Above $3.399 is 98%, on $67 in 24 hours, with $5,406 open. Right, Above $3.599 is 72%, the rung nearest even, on $627 with $1,071 open. With Above $3.499 at 93.5% between them, the ladder centers a November 13 close above $3.60, and a close below $3.40 is the downside tail at about one in fifty.

ERCOT's 2026 peak board prices every listed strike from 91,500 MW up at 3.5% or less, on $234 in 24 hours: Above 91,500 MW, Above 92,000 MW and Above 92,500 MW are 3.5%, with Above 92,000 MW taking all of the day's $234, and Above 93,000 MW and Above 94,000 MW 2.5%. It settles January 8, 2027. The right slot now holds the daily peak demand book Kalshi titles Friday, November 13, on $11 with $11 open: the listed rungs from Above 49,000 MW through Above 51,000 MW are marked at 97.5% to 98% with no trade in the day, so the rungs near even sit higher. It settles just before 1am ET on November 21, after ERCOT publishes the day's figure.

Kalshi's gas ladder settles Friday, November 13, at 5pm ET, with the midpoint above $3.60.

• The ladder: Above $3.399 98%, Above $3.499 93.5%, Above $3.599 72%, on $7,532 in 24 hours.
• Polymarket: the direction contract for Friday, November 13 and the week board both settle at 6pm ET that day; the direction contract prices up at 15% on about $1, and the week board's rungs are untraded marks on $361.
• Diesel: the weekly board dated November 16 settles November 23, its listed rungs from Above $5.78 through Above $5.86 at 98.5%.
• Texas peak demand: the daily book titled November 13 settles November 21, its listed rungs through 51,000 MW at 97.5% to 98%; the 2026 rungs from 91,500 MW up are 3.5% or less.