UEFA Champions League 2026-27

Barcelona is the clear favorite to win the 2027 Champions League: 27% on Kalshi and 23.5% on Polymarket. In September it led a bunched field at 18.5% and 16.5%. PSG has moved up to second on both books, 14.5% on Kalshi and 15.5% on Polymarket, from fourth two weeks ago. Behind it the books agree to the point: Arsenal 13.5%, Bayern Munich 13.5%, Real Madrid 10.5%. Manifold's play-money book has the same five in the same order.

Polymarket still carries the flow. Its 2027 Champion market turned $685,281 in twenty-four hours, twenty-four times Kalshi's $28,426. Little of it touched the leaders: Real Madrid took $20,568, PSG $15,242 and Barcelona $4,268.

Kalshi carries the standing positions. Its book holds $3,169,675 of open interest, with $803,058 on Barcelona and $403,989 on Real Madrid; Barcelona took $12,063 of the day and PSG $7,150.

The title race on both real-money books, side by side. Kalshi's on the left, Polymarket's on the right: the same five clubs at the top in the same order, and only Barcelona more than a point apart, by three and a half.

What separates them is depth. Polymarket carries twenty-four times the daily flow; Kalshi carries the standing positions, with $3.2M of open interest against $28,426 of turnover. One book is where the season is being traded and the other is where it is being held.

By price (Kalshi): Barcelona 27%, PSG 14.5%, Arsenal 13.5%, Bayern Munich 13.5%, Real Madrid 10.5%.

By Kalshi open interest: Barcelona $803,058, Real Madrid $403,989, Bayern $225,114, PSG $204,930, Arsenal $202,176.

By Polymarket volume: Real Madrid $20,568, PSG $15,242, Barcelona $4,268, Bayern $1,340, Arsenal $1,299. Together that is $42,717 of a $685,281 day: 94% of Polymarket's flow went to clubs outside the top five.

Real Madrid is the divergence worth naming: fifth by price, second by open interest, first by Polymarket flow.

The four contracts below are the favorite, then PSG, then Real Madrid on Polymarket, then Manifold's mirror of the whole board.

Arsenal is 61.5% to win the Premier League and 13.5% to win Europe, up from 49.5% at home in September and unchanged on the continent. Manifold agrees on the league at 62.5%. Manchester City is 23.5% and Chelsea 6.5%.

The open-interest read underneath still looks nothing like the price board. Liverpool at 3.5% holds $624,827, more than Arsenal's $571,372 at 61.5%; Brighton at 2.5% holds $535,598 and Chelsea $531,990. Tottenham at 1% holds $296,719. Rank the Premier League book by money and Arsenal is second.

Polymarket's Ligue 1 title market completes the page: PSG 86.5%, Monaco 5.3%, on $5,566 of volume. It shows the same club priced at about one in seven for Europe as a near-certain favorite at home.

• Barcelona at 27% and 23.5%. Up from 18.5% and 16.5% in September; the gap to second is twelve and a half points on Kalshi and eight on Polymarket.
• PSG second on both books. 14.5% and 15.5%, up from fourth two weeks ago.
• Twenty-four to one. Polymarket turns $685,281 against Kalshi's $28,426, and 94% of it is on clubs outside the top five.
• Real Madrid: fifth by price, second by money. $403,989 of Kalshi open interest at 10.5%.
• Arsenal: 61.5% at home, 13.5% in Europe.
• The Premier League board ranked by money. Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea and Tottenham hold $1.99M between them at a combined 13.5%.