UEFA Champions League 2026-27

Barcelona is now the clear favorite to win the 2027 Champions League: 25.5% on Kalshi and 23.5% on Polymarket. Three weeks ago it led a bunched field at 18.5% and 16.5%. Behind it the two books agree almost to the point: Bayern Munich 14.5% on both, Arsenal 13.5% on both, PSG 11.5% and 12.5%, Real Madrid 10.5% on both. Manifold's play-money book has the same five in the same order.

Polymarket still carries the flow. Its 2027 Champion market turned $474,638 in twenty-four hours, thirty times Kalshi's $15,701. Very little of it touched the leaders: Barcelona took $4,328, Real Madrid $2,450 and PSG $2,304.

Kalshi carries the standing positions. Its book holds $2,714,736 of open interest, with $712,365 on Barcelona and $384,337 on Real Madrid, and more than half of the day's $15,701 went to Barcelona.

The price and the money now point the same way. In September Barcelona led on price while Real Madrid led on volume and ran it close on open interest.

The title race on both real-money books, side by side. Kalshi's on the left, Polymarket's on the right—the same five clubs at the top in the same order, and no leader more than two points apart.

What separates them is depth. Polymarket carries thirty times the daily flow; Kalshi carries the standing positions, with $2.7M of open interest against $15,701 of turnover. One book is where the season is being traded and the other is where it is being held.

By price (Kalshi): Barcelona 25.5%, Bayern Munich 14.5%, Arsenal 13.5%, PSG 11.5%, Real Madrid 10.5%.

By Kalshi open interest: Barcelona $712,365, Real Madrid $384,337, Bayern $215,742, Arsenal $197,938, PSG $152,145.

By Polymarket volume: Barcelona $4,328, Real Madrid $2,450, PSG $2,304, Arsenal $218, Bayern $179. Together that is $9,479 of a $474,638 day: 98% of Polymarket's flow went to clubs outside the top five.

Real Madrid is the divergence worth naming: fifth by price, second by open interest. Bayern is the reverse, second by price on a leg that took $101 on Kalshi.

The four contracts below are the favorite, then PSG, then Real Madrid on Polymarket, then Manifold's mirror of the whole board.

Arsenal is 62.5% to win the Premier League and 13.5% to win Europe—up from 49.5% at home three weeks ago and unchanged on the continent. Manifold agrees on the league at 61.6%. Manchester City is 19.5% and Liverpool 7.5%.

The open-interest read underneath still looks nothing like the price board. Liverpool at 7.5% holds $625,487, more than Arsenal's $568,615 at 62.5%; Brighton at 2.5% holds $524,920 and Chelsea at 4.5% $492,398. Tottenham at 1% holds $295,294. Rank the Premier League book by money and Arsenal is second.

Polymarket's Ligue 1 title market completes the page: PSG 80.5%, Monaco 6.5%, on $282 of volume. It is thin, but it shows the same club priced at about one in eight for Europe as a four-in-five favorite at home.

• Barcelona at 25.5% and 23.5%. Seven points up on both venues in three weeks, and more than half of Kalshi's day. The gap to Bayern is eleven points on Kalshi and nine on Polymarket.
• Thirty to one. Polymarket turns $474,638 against Kalshi's $15,701, and 98% of it is on clubs outside the top five.
• Real Madrid: fifth by price, second by money. $384,337 of Kalshi open interest at 10.5%.
• Arsenal: 62.5% at home, 13.5% in Europe. The domestic price has risen thirteen points while the European one has not moved.
• The Premier League board ranked by money. Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea and Tottenham hold $1.94M between them at a combined 15.5%.