Trump Approval Tracker

Kalshi's November 13 book has a clear leader: 38.7 to 38.9 at 55.5%, then 38.4 to 38.6 at 21.5%, 39.0 to 39.2 at 12.5%, 38.1 to 38.3 at 3.5% and 39.3 to 39.5 at 3%.

It has become a market. The book turned $25,909 in 24 hours, up from $490, with $60,917 of open interest; 38.7 to 38.9 took $6,304, 38.4 to 38.6 $2,275 and 39.0 to 39.2 $2,119.

The anchor is a Range event of mutually exclusive rungs, settling against RealClearPolitics at noon ET on Friday, November 13.

The weekly direction widget below the floor rungs shows the November 6 to November 13 book, Above 38.4%, now quoted at 13%, from an untraded 51%, on $7,725 of trade and $4,020 of open interest. It settles at 10am ET on Friday, November 13. That sits oddly beside the range ladder, which puts most of its weight above 38.6; the two settle two hours apart, so read each against its own contract rules.

The spotlight row carries four rungs of the book: the leader, 38.7 to 38.9 at 55.5%; 38.4 to 38.6 at 21.5%; 39.0 to 39.2 at 12.5%; and 39.3 to 39.5 at 3%. Together they hold 92.5% of the book, and all four traded, from $6,304 on the leader to $257 on 39.3 to 39.5. Just below the range, 38.1 to 38.3 at 3.5% now edges the fourth spotlight rung.

The matching ceiling ladder asks how high the rating gets before 2027. No rung is priced above 3.6%: Above 43% at 3.6%, down from 4.45%, Above 44% 1.55%, Above 45% 2.9%, Above 46% 1.75% and Above 47% 2.7%, out of order on thin trade.

It turned $1,305 in 24 hours, down from $8,171, $305 of it on Above 44% and $10 on Above 43%, against $69,943 of open interest. Below, the floor ladder's full chart on the left and the ceiling's on the right.

The cumulative floor ladder asks how low the rating gets at any point before 2027. Below 36% is 59.5%, down from 78%, Below 35.5% 41.5%, Below 35% 24.5%, from 34.5%, Below 34.5% 17% and Below 34% 12.5%, from 17.5%.

The ladder turned $3,538 in 24 hours, down from $12,593, against $145,073 of open interest, still the deepest book in the Trump approval complex; Below 36% took the most, $1,794, then Below 35% $1,179. Below the two rungs, the November 6 to November 13 direction book.

The cross-exchange read stays on the year floor. Polymarket still has no matching weekly ladder, so the second column carries its 2026 floor board. Kalshi's Below 35% at 24.5% against Polymarket's 35% at 19.5%: five points apart, up from two and a half. One rung up, Kalshi's Below 36% at 59.5% sits nine points over Polymarket's 36% at 50.5%, from six. Polymarket's board turned only $134, and its rungs are back in order, with 30% at 4.55% over 20% at 3%.

Watch whether the leader holds. The November 13 book settles at noon ET on Friday, November 13, with 38.7 to 38.9 at 55.5% on $25,909 of trade.

And watch the direction book, Above 38.4% at 13% on $7,725, settling at 10am ET the same morning.