Trump Approval Tracker

The October 2 book settled and the ladder rolled to October 9, with the centre lower again. Kalshi's new ladder puts 37.9 to 38.1 on top at 25.5%, then 38.2 to 38.4 at 21%, Below 37.6 at 19% and 37.6 to 37.8 at 17.5%. The October 2 book opened centred on 38.5 to 38.7; that rung is now 10.5%. Read as a distribution, about 62% of the weight sits at 38.1 or below.

The book is a day old and thin. It has turned $2,497 on 2,434 contracts of open interest. Below 37.6 is the busiest rung at $407, and 37.9 to 38.1 took $312.

The anchor is a Range event of mutually exclusive rungs, settling against RealClearPolitics at noon ET on October 9.

The weekly direction contract still does not line up with it. Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? now asks whether the rating ends the week above 36.9%, and prices that at 22.5% on $407. The ladder's lowest rung, Below 37.6, is only 19%. Both cannot be right at face value. The likeliest reading is the same as in earlier weeks: the two settle off different series, and the gap is methodology rather than a mispricing.

The spotlight row carries four rungs: the leader, 37.9 to 38.1 (25.5%); 38.2 to 38.4 (21%); 38.5 to 38.7 (10.5%), which led the last book; and 38.8 to 39.0 (7.5%) on the upper shoulder. Together they hold 64.5% of the book. The rest sits below them, in Below 37.6 at 19% and 37.6 to 37.8 at 17.5%.

The matching ceiling ladder asks how high the rating gets before 2027. No rung is priced above 4%: Above 45% at 4%, Above 43% and Above 46% at 3.6%, Above 44% 3.2%, Above 47% 2.7%. The rungs are slightly out of order, which is what an untraded book looks like.

It traded $150 in 24 hours, all of it on Above 45%, against 55,909 contracts of open interest. This is a book people hold, not trade.

The cumulative floor ladder asks how low the rating gets at any point before 2027. Its Below 37% rung is no longer trading, and the live question has moved down a point: Below 36% is 70%, Below 35% 35.5%, Below 34% 16%, Below 33% 10.3%.

The ladder turned $7,307 today, $3,027 of it on Below 36% and $2,658 on Below 35%. At 141,884 contracts of open interest it remains by far the deepest book in the Trump approval complex. Below the two rungs, the weekly direction contract at 22.5%.

The cross-exchange read stays on the year floor. Polymarket still has no daily ladder, so the second column carries its 2026 floor board. Kalshi's Below 35% at 35.5% against Polymarket's 35% at 31%: four and a half points apart. One rung up the gap is wider, 70% on Kalshi's Below 36% against 56.5% on Polymarket, whose board traded $684 today, all of it on the 37% rung at 96.5%.

Watch whether the ladder keeps sliding. The centre fell nine-tenths at the last roll and six-tenths at this one. If Below 37.6 overtakes the 38.0 rung before October 9, the floor ladder's Below 36% at 70% is the next to reprice.

And watch the weekly direction book, which settles two hours before the ladder on the same morning and at 22.5% still disagrees with it.