Trump Administration Turnover 2026

Kalshi's Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? book holds $2.2 million of open interest and turned $4,456 today. With under three months left on the contract, the leading prices are all under 26%: Pete Hegseth 25.5%, Doug Collins 23%, Susie Wiles 19.5%, Steve Witkoff 18.5% and Bill Pulte 18%.

Hegseth is still where the trading is. His leg took $2,442, more than half the day, on 474,725 of open interest, the deepest position among the leaders. In mid-September he was 32% and took $14,170.

The two exchanges now agree on him. Polymarket prices Hegseth at 24.5%, a point under Kalshi; three weeks ago the gap was 13.5 points. Polymarket's own board is led by Markwayne Mullin at 36.5%, Kristi Noem at 32% and Dan Scavino at 29.6%, none of which traded today.

The timing ladders have cleaned up. The Cabinet ladder now shows three live rungs, in order: before November 30.5%, before December 47%, before January 2027 61%.

Who leaves in 2026, on both exchanges.

Kalshi holds $2,210,528 of open interest and turned $4,456. Its board is flat at the top: five names between 18% and 25.5%. The two untraded 50.0% marks this page tracked in September, on Karoline Leavitt and Todd Blanche, no longer sit at the top of the board.

Polymarket's version turned $693, $313 of it on Hegseth at 24.5%. The 13.5-point gap between the exchanges on Hegseth has closed to one. The boards differ instead on who leads: Kalshi's top name is Hegseth; Polymarket's are Mullin, Noem and Scavino, on quotes that did not trade.

Pete Hegseth still carries the flow. He prices 25.5% on Kalshi, holds 474,725 of open interest, and took $2,442 of the event's $4,456 day. Polymarket prices the same name at 24.5%.

Beside him, RFK Jr. in the Cabinet-exit book at 22.5%, up from 16.5%, on 13,852 of open interest. That book's leader is Hegseth again at 23.5%.

The two timing ladders, both in better order than in September.

Cabinet exit timing shows three live rungs in sequence: Before Nov 2026 30.5%, Before Dec 2026 47%, Before Jan 2027 61%. The inversion this page flagged, November above December, is gone. The ladder barely trades: $2 today on 10,531 of open interest.

The Kash Patel ladder holds 406,452 of open interest on $539 of flow. Its leading rungs are now long-dated: Before Jul 1, 2027 35.5%, Before Oct 1, 2027 44.5%, Before Jan 1, 2028 54%, Before Jan 1, 2029 82%. The market's even-money date for Patel leaving the FBI is the end of 2027.

The Cabinet book holds 122,675 of open interest and turned $1,004. It is no longer flat: Hegseth 23.5% and RFK Jr. 22.5% have pulled away from Markwayne Mullin at 8.5%, Howard Lutnick at 7.5% and Susie Wiles at 5.5%. Mullin's leg was the busiest, $500.

Beside it, the tail contract—Trump resigning before his term ends—at 19%, on $1,361 and 156,111 of open interest.

• Hegseth at 25.5% and 24.5%. The two exchanges agree on the most-traded name, and he leads both the 2026 departure book and the next-Cabinet-exit book.
• The clock. The 2026 book has under three months to run, and no name is priced above 26%.
• Hegseth and RFK Jr. in the Cabinet book. 23.5% and 22.5%, with the next name at 8.5%.
• The Cabinet timing ladder. Before January 2027 at 61% says a Cabinet departure this year is more likely than not; before November is 30.5%.
• Patel's even-money date. Before Jan 1, 2028 at 54%.
• Trump resigning before his term ends at 19%, on the page's second-busiest contract today.