Trump Administration Turnover 2026

Susie Wiles resigned as chief of staff on the night of Thursday, November 5, and on Friday, November 6, President Trump named Stephen Miller to replace her, starting Monday, November 9. Kalshi's Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? book turned $468,510 in a day, and $337,661 of it was on Miller's leg, now 96.85%. Wiles no longer appears among the book's leading legs.

Hegseth has eased. He is 38% on Kalshi, down from 72%, and 41.5% on Polymarket, down from 64%, where he still leads Kristi Noem at 30.1% and Kash Patel at 22.5%.

Kalshi has listed a new next-Cabinet-exit book, dated November 6. Hegseth leads it at 51.5% on $1,340 of trade.

The new Cabinet timing ladder opens with before December at 71.5% and before January 2027 at 88%, untraded.

Who leaves in 2026, on both exchanges.

Kalshi turned $468,510 on $4,086,986 of open interest. Miller's leg took $337,661 at 96.85%; behind him, Amy Gleason is 48.5%, Trent McCotter 46.5%, Stanley Woodward 45% and Sergio Gor 43%. Hegseth's leg, at 38%, took $50,168.

Polymarket's version turned $144,316, $47,612 of it on Hegseth at 41.5%. Noem is 30.1%, Patel 22.5%, Howard Lutnick 16.5% and RFK Jr. 13.5%. On Hegseth the venues now sit 3.5 points apart, Polymarket the higher.

Pete Hegseth is 38% to leave in 2026 on Kalshi, down from 72%, on $50,168 in the past day and $742,834 of open interest, the book's deepest position.

Beside him, Hegseth leads Kalshi's new next-Cabinet-exit book at 51.5%, on $638 and $1,055 of open interest, ahead of Brooke Rollins at 24% and RFK Jr. and Todd Blanche at 22%. That book runs to January 2029, so it can price him higher than the 2026 book does.

The two timing ladders.

Cabinet exit timing: Kalshi's new ladder, dated November 6, has not traded. Before Dec 2026 is marked 71.5%, Before Jan 2027 88% and Before Feb 2027 93%; the March and April 2027 rungs carry no price yet.

The Kash Patel ladder turned $415 and has moved later: Before Jul 1, 2027 66%, Before Oct 1, 2027 68%, Before Jan 1, 2028 73%, Before Jul 1, 2028 82% and Before Jan 1, 2029 85%. The market still puts Patel's departure from the FBI more likely than not by mid-2027.

Kalshi's new next-Cabinet-exit book has turned $1,340 on $3,383 of open interest: Pete Hegseth 51.5% leads Brooke Rollins at 24%, RFK Jr. and Todd Blanche at 22% and Kelly Loeffler at 21.55%. The book is new and thin, and its legs sum well past 100%.

Beside it, the tail contract—Trump resigning before his term ends—at 24.5%, down from 25.5%, on $10,952 and $270,860 of open interest.

• Miller's start as chief of staff, Monday, November 9. His leg on Kalshi's 2026 book is 96.85%, on $337,661 in a day.
• Hegseth at 38% and 41.5%. Down from 72% and 64%; he still leads Polymarket's board.
• The new next-Cabinet-exit book. Hegseth 51.5%, Rollins 24%, on thin trade.
• The clock. The 2026 book runs to December 31.
• The Cabinet ladder: before December 71.5%, before January 2027 88%, untraded.
• Patel's even-money date. Before Jul 1, 2027 at 66%.
• Trump resigning before his term ends at 24.5%, down from 25.5%.