TIME Person of the Year 2026

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TIME names its 2026 Person of the Year in December, and three venues price the pick. Zohran Mamdani leads both real-money books, 25.5% on Kalshi and 22.5% on Polymarket, down from 30.5% and 28% a week earlier. On Manifold he is 24.72%, behind Other at 27%.

The chase pack has changed. On Kalshi, James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed are tied at 17.5%, Scott Colom is 14% and Joshua Turek 12.5%; Pope Leo XIV and Mark Carney are no longer in its top five. Polymarket has Talarico at 18.55%, El-Sayed 16.5%, Carney 11.5% and Benjamin Netanyahu 7.55%.

Kalshi carries the money. Its book turned $99,291 in 24 hours on $1,800,747 of open interest, and $41,447 of that went to Mamdani's leg; Talarico drew $5,069, the second-busiest. Polymarket turned $41,750, $16,743 of it on Mamdani and $7,456 on Netanyahu.

Kalshi's board settles January 1, 2027; the countdown above runs to it.

Top row, Kalshi's board, left, and Polymarket's, right. Both list each name as its own yes/no contract, so their prices need not add to 100%. They agree on the top three, Mamdani, then Talarico and El-Sayed, and sit within three points on each; below that they differ, with Scott Colom and Joshua Turek on Kalshi and Mark Carney and Benjamin Netanyahu on Polymarket.

Manifold's play-money board is the single-answer book here, and the one venue where Mamdani is not first: Other 27%, Mamdani 24.72%, Talarico 10%, Carney 8.91% and Pope Leo XIV 8.75%. It puts Talarico well below the real-money books and keeps Pope Leo XIV on a board the exchanges have moved past.

Mamdani on both real-money exchanges: 25.5% on Kalshi, on $41,447 in 24 hours and $680,519 of open interest, the deepest position on the board, and 22.5% on Polymarket, on $16,743. The two sit three points apart; he leads the next name by eight points on Kalshi and by about four on Polymarket.

The daily path of the five leading names on Kalshi's board. TIME's December announcement is the event that moves it; until then, watch whether Talarico and El-Sayed, tied at 17.5%, close the eight-point gap to Mamdani.

  • Mamdani's lead. 25.5% on Kalshi and 22.5% on Polymarket, both down about five points in a week; 24.72% on Manifold.
  • The chase pack. Talarico and El-Sayed at 17.5% each on Kalshi, 18.55% and 16.5% on Polymarket.
  • Where the venues differ. Manifold has Other ahead at 27% and Talarico at 10%; Kalshi's next names are Scott Colom and Joshua Turek, Polymarket's Carney and Netanyahu.
  • The announcement. TIME names its pick in December; Kalshi's board settles January 1, 2027, Manifold's December 31 and Polymarket's is listed for July 2027.