Texas Governor 2026

Texas elects a governor on November 3. Greg Abbott is 74.5% on Kalshi, 73.4% on Polymarket and 73% on Manifold, three exchanges within a point and a half, each down about five points from 79% three weeks ago. Gina Hinojosa is 26.5% on both real-money venues.

The money is on the challenger. Kalshi's board turned $82,859 today, $45,581 of it on Hinojosa against $37,345 on Abbott.

The margin ladder is softer still. The same exchange gives Abbott only 31% to win by six points or more, down from 45%, and 15% to win by nine. Abbott took Texas by eleven points in 2022.

And Texas Democrats are not priced out of the state. Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026 trades at 69%, up from 64%, while the Democrat at the top of the ticket is at 26.5% and the Democrat for lieutenant governor at 29.5%.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold all list the governor's race and all three land within a point and a half of each other: 74.5%, 73.4% and 73% for Abbott. Kalshi carries the volume, $82,859 today against Polymarket's $3,939 and Manifold's play money.

Cross-exchange agreement this tight usually means the question is settled. The margin board below disagrees.

The two sides of the deepest Texas board. Abbott 74.5%, Hinojosa 26.5%—a one-point overround, with Hinojosa's leg the busier at $45,581 to $37,345.

The margin ladder is where the race actually lives. Abbott by 3+ is 56%, by 6+ is 31%, by 9+ is 15%, by 12+ is 9%.

So the market says Abbott wins about three times in four, and wins by six or more less than a third of the time. Abbott took Texas by eleven points in 2022. The board is pricing a materially closer race than that, and almost nobody is trading it: $344 a day against the headline board's $82,859.

Down-ballot is the contested part of the ticket. Dan Patrick is 70.5% for lieutenant governor on Polymarket against Vikki Goodwin's 29.5%—four points softer than the governor's race, on a book that barely trades.

And the Blexas contract, will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026, sits at 69%. Read together: the market expects Republicans to hold the marquee races and expects to lose at least one somewhere below them.

The governor's race settles on certification, January 20, 2027; the Polymarket and Manifold mirrors settle on the November 3 result. The margin ladder runs to November 2027.

• Whether the margin board converges on the headline. 74.5% to win against 31% to win by six is the widest internal spread on the page, and the margin board trades $344 a day.
• Hinojosa's leg taking the money. $45,581 of Kalshi's $82,859 day went to the challenger, and Abbott is down five points in three weeks.
• The Blexas contract at 69%. A Democrat wins something statewide while no individual Democrat on the page is above 29.5%. Either a specific race reprices or that contract is too rich.
• The Senate race alongside it. Texas runs both this cycle; the Senate control page prices Talarico at 66% over Paxton.