Texas Governor 2026

Texas elects a governor on November 3. Greg Abbott is 79% on Kalshi, 79.5% on Polymarket and 79% on Manifold—three exchanges inside half a point, on $691,084 of open interest and $51,140 of daily volume on the Kalshi board alone. Gina Hinojosa is 23%.

The interesting number is not the top line. The same exchange that puts Abbott at 79% to win gives him only 45% to win by six points or more, and 27% to win by nine. A Texas governor's race decided inside five points would be the closest since 2018.

And Texas Democrats are not priced out of the state. Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026 trades at 64% with $12,854 standing behind it—while the Democrat at the top of the ticket is at 23% and the Democrat for lieutenant governor is at 25%. The board is pricing a down-ballot upset it cannot name.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold all list the governor's race and all three land within half a point of each other. Kalshi carries $691,084 of open interest against Polymarket's $42,452 and Manifold's play money.

Cross-exchange agreement this tight usually means the question is settled. The margin board below disagrees.

The two sides of the deepest Texas board. Abbott 79%, Hinojosa 23%—a two-point overround on a race fourteen months from certification.

The margin ladder is where the race actually lives. Abbott by 3+ is 62%, by 6+ is 45%, by 9+ is 27%, by 15+ is 15%.

So the market says Abbott wins four times in five, and wins comfortably only about half the time. Abbott took Texas by eleven points in 2022. The board is pricing a materially closer race than that and almost nobody is trading it—$799 a day against the headline board's $51,140.

Down-ballot is the contested part of the ticket. Dan Patrick is 74% for lieutenant governor against Vikki Goodwin's 25%—five points softer than the governor's race.

And the Blexas contract, will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026, sits at 64%. Read together: the market expects Republicans to hold the marquee races and expects to lose at least one somewhere below them.

The governor's race settles on certification, January 20, 2027; the Polymarket and Manifold mirrors settle on the November 3 result. The margin ladder runs to November 2027.

• Whether the margin board converges on the headline. 79% to win against 45% to win by six is the widest internal spread on the page, and the margin board trades $799 a day.
• The Blexas contract at 64%. A Democrat wins something statewide while no individual Democrat on the page is above 25%. Either a specific race reprices or that contract is too rich.
• Whether Polymarket's book deepens. $42,452 of open interest against Kalshi's $691,084 on the same question. The spread between venues is half a point today; it is the thin side that moves when news lands.
• The Senate race alongside it. Texas runs both this cycle, and the combo book pricing them together has taken $160.