Tennessee Governor 2026

Marsha Blackburn is the Republican nominee for governor of Tennessee, and the November 3 general election is priced as a hold: Blackburn 94.75% against Jerri Green's 5.4% on Kalshi, 95.95/4.2 on Polymarket.

In mid-September nothing here traded at all. Now a little does. Kalshi's winner book turned $840 and Polymarket's $837, and Kalshi's flow went to the underdog: $621 on Green against $219 on Blackburn. Green's leg also holds the larger position, 35,938 of open interest against 9,980.

The supporting ladders are still mostly resting quotes:

• The vote-share ladder prices Green at least 40% at 71% and at least 42% at 49%, the one rung that traded, $207.
• The margin ladder gives Blackburn 73% to win by 9 or more, 58.5% by 12 or more and 42% by 15 or more, on $5 of volume and 375 of open interest. Read with the vote-share ladder, the market expects a win of about thirteen to sixteen points.
• The turnout ladder has not traded and its quotes are out of order: above 1.73M is 39% while above 1.91M is 54.5%.

Tennessee has not elected a Democratic governor since 2002. An untraded 95% is not the same object as a traded one, and this book is only starting to become the second kind.

TN Secretary of State: Elections.

Two ways of asking how big the win is. Left, Jerri Green's vote share: at least 36% is 90%, at least 40% 71%, at least 42% 49% and at least 44% 30%, on 1,107 of open interest. Right, Blackburn's margin: 9+ points 73%, 12+ 58.5%, 15+ 42%, 18+ 26.5%, 21+ 13.9%.

The primary books this section once showed were delisted after the August 6 primary; these two general-election ladders replaced them.

The Republican hold, priced on two exchanges: Kalshi 94.75%, Polymarket 95.95%. A point between them, on books that each turned under $1,000.

Open interest tells a different story from price: 9,980 behind Kalshi's Republican leg and 35,938 behind the Democratic one, with 7,028 on Polymarket's whole book.

The general election books themselves. Kalshi's pie carries Blackburn and Green; Polymarket's carries party labels. Manifold's binary on a Democratic win is the third read, and the outlier at 11.5%.

Kalshi's two legs sum to 100.15% and Polymarket's to the same, so both books are quoted tightly even at this volume.

The hourly history on the general-election book. In mid-September it was a flat line at 96%; Blackburn has since slipped a point, to 94.75%, on the first trading the book has seen.

Tennessee's governor race is a safe seat and the tape still says so.

• Whether the trading continues. $840 on Kalshi and $837 on Polymarket is small, but in mid-September both were zero.
• Green's leg. 5.4% on Kalshi with 35,938 of open interest, more than three times Blackburn's 9,980. More is carried on the side priced to lose, the same inversion seen in South Carolina.
• The margin. Blackburn by 12 or more at 58.5% and by 15 or more at 42%, for a state Trump carried by 30. With $5 of volume there is nothing to say the ladder is right or wrong.
• Green at 42%. The vote-share rung nearest even, and the only supporting rung that traded.
• The turnout ladder's ordering. Above 1.73M at 39% under above 1.91M at 54.5% cannot both be right; neither has traded.
• Manifold at 11.5% for a Democratic win, more than twice either real-money book.