Tennessee Governor 2026

Tennessee voted on November 3, and the winner books on the governor's race have closed and left the page; Manifold's play-money Democratic-win binary has closed too. Marsha Blackburn was the Republican nominee against Democrat Jerri Green; before the vote the books priced Blackburn at about 93%.

What still trades is how the count comes out, on Kalshi's ladders, and they have gone quiet:

• The vote-share ladder on Green has at least 38% at 93%, on $6 today, with its lower rungs quoted below it, out of order.
• The margin ladder has Blackburn 3+ points at 18%, down from 36.3%, on $37.
• The turnout ladder did not trade today; above 1.73M is marked at 59.5%.

The vote-share ladder settles January 3, 2027.

TN Secretary of State: Elections.

Two ways of asking how big the win is. Left, Jerri Green's vote share: at least 38% is 93%, up from 71.5%, while at least 36% is 88%, at least 34% 86% and at least 32% 91.5%, quoted out of order on $6 of trade, so read them as marks. Right, Blackburn's margin: 3+ points is 18%, down from 36.3%, on $37, with the wider rungs at 5% or less. Both ladders now point to a closer count than the books priced on Election Day.

• The count. Green at least 38% at 93% and Blackburn 3+ points at 18%: the ladders price a far narrower margin than the 93% winner books did.
• Turnout. Kalshi's ladder is untraded and out of order; it settles November 3, 2027.
• Settlement. The vote-share ladder settles January 3, 2027; the countdown above runs to it.