Taipei Mayor Election 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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Taiwan votes in island-wide local elections on November 28, and the Taipei mayoralty is the busiest book. Polymarket prices Chiang Wan-an at 62.5% against Puma Shen at 37.8%, ten points closer than two weeks ago, on $178,016 in a day; Kalshi has it tighter still, 58.5% to 44% on $54,482.

The flow is still on the challenger, and now the price is following it. Shen's Polymarket leg took $92,648 against $85,368 on Chiang; on Kalshi, $44,584 of the day was Shen's.

New Taipei has changed hands. Su Chiao-hui now leads Lee Shu-chuan 54% to 45% on Polymarket. Kaohsiung's favorite has firmed to 83.5%, and the island-wide party board has narrowed: Kuomintang 69% on Polymarket, down from 89.5%.

Election: Saturday, November 28, 2026.

Chiang Wan-an to win is 62.5% on Polymarket and 58.5% on Kalshi, four points apart where they were a point apart two weeks ago. His Polymarket leg took $85,368 today and his Kalshi leg $9,898.

Kalshi lists his opponent under his formal name, Shen Bo-yang, at 44%; Polymarket lists him as Puma Shen at 37.8%. On Kalshi, Shen's leg holds 166,981 of open interest against Chiang's 65,264.

New Taipei has a new favorite. Polymarket prices Su Chiao-hui at 54% and Lee Shu-chuan at 45%, on $14,719, $11,034 of it on Su; Kalshi has Su at 58% and Lee at 43.5%, on $2,605. Two weeks ago both exchanges had Lee ahead; now they agree on Su and sit four points apart on her.

Kaohsiung has a firmer favorite. Lai Jui-lung is 83.5% on Polymarket and 88% on Kalshi, with Ko Chih-en at 16.15% and 13%, on $60 and $150.

Below it, the island-wide question of which party comes out ahead. Polymarket prices the Kuomintang at 69% and the Democratic Progressive Party at 30.1%, on $702, twenty points narrower than two weeks ago; Kalshi's version has the Kuomintang at 67% and the DPP at 33.5%, on $6.

  • Shen's leg in Taipei. $92,648 on Polymarket and $44,584 on Kalshi today, and this time the price moved with it: Chiang is down ten points in two weeks.
  • New Taipei. Su Chiao-hui 54% to Lee Shu-chuan's 45% on Polymarket after the lead changed hands. It is the race most likely to change hands again.
  • The cross-exchange gaps. Four points on Chiang in Taipei, four on Su in New Taipei, four and a half in Kaohsiung. Kalshi's Taipei board now trades $54,482 a day, so it is no longer only a check on Polymarket.
  • The party board. Kuomintang 69% on Polymarket against 67% on Kalshi.
  • November 28. Polymarket's boards are listed to settle that night; Kalshi's Taipei board carries a February 2027 settlement date.