State Economy Markets 2026-27

Kalshi's templated series on state-level economic statistics, industry employment and mineral production, was turning $160,000 a day when this page was last written in September, more than the books held in open interest. That phase is over. The nine books here traded about $10,400 between them in the last day, and what is left is the more ordinary shape: positions held far in excess of daily flow.

Washington aerospace manufacturing turned $3,553 against 63,466 of open interest, which has roughly doubled. Washington professional and technical services turned $3,802 against 51,852. Wisconsin manufacturing did not trade and holds 18,825.

The single-name books have moved without trading much. Arizona semiconductor employment rising year over year has fallen from 29% to 13.5%, and Kentucky distillery employment from 39% to 10.5%. Ohio manufacturing is the exception, 69.5% on $3,011, the busiest single contract on the page.

Pennsylvania's ladder, empty in September, now holds 22,571 of open interest and still did not trade today.

Every contract here settles off a published government series, BLS state employment and EIA coal production, which makes the resolution criteria unusually clean for an event contract.

The three ladders that carry the category, all settling in the first half of 2027 off BLS state employment data. Washington aerospace prices Above 83,000 jobs at 86.5% and Above 84,000 at 64.5%; Wisconsin manufacturing Above 455,000 at 63.5% and Above 457,500 at 41.5%; Washington technical services Above 250,000 at 93.5% and Above 255,000 at 80.5%. Beside them, the price history of the aerospace ladder.

Wisconsin's 455,000-job rung was the one coin flip in the complex in September at 52%; it is 63.5% now, and the open question has moved up to Above 457,500 at 41.5%. Washington aerospace's 83,000-job rung sits at 86.5% and traded $5; the open rung on that ladder is Above 84,000 at 64.5%, which took $335.

The single-name books, one contract each. Arizona semiconductors at 13.5% and Kentucky distilleries at 10.5% were the two genuinely uncertain ones in September, at 29% and 39%; both have been marked down on $67 of combined trading. Ohio manufacturing at 69.5% took $3,011 on 10,155 of open interest. Pennsylvania's ladder puts Above 555,000 jobs at 46.5%, its open rung, with Above 550,000 at 90.5%.

Two state coal ladders, neither of which traded more than a few dollars. Kentucky's 2027 contract is the longest-dated instrument on this page, settling May 2028; its 22-million-ton rung has moved from 47% to 73.5%, and the open rung is now Above 24 million short tons at 40%. Wyoming's 2026 book prices Above 200 MMst at 84.5% and Above 210 MMst at 32.5%, on 21,948 of open interest.

Whether the volume comes back. $160,000 a day in September, about $10,400 now. The churn that outran open interest looks like a listing-period effect; watch whether new data releases revive it.

Ohio manufacturing at 69.5%. The one single-name book that traded, and the only contract on the page with real flow at a price away from the extremes.

Arizona and Kentucky. Two year-over-year contracts cut from the 30s to 13.5% and 10.5% on almost no volume. Marks like that move on published data, not on trading; the next state employment release tests them.

Wisconsin's ladder. The open question has moved up a rung, to 457,500 jobs at 41.5%. Manufacturing employment revisions are large and frequent.

Kentucky coal at 73.5% for 22 million tons. A 26-point move on the longest-dated contract here, on a series with a clear secular trend.

Whether anyone else lists a mirror. This is still entirely a Kalshi category.