State Economy Markets 2026-27

Kalshi's templated series on state-level economic statistics, industry employment and mineral production, was turning $160,000 a day in September, more than the books held in open interest. That phase is over. The nine books here traded about $35,200 between them in the last day, against about 401,800 of open interest, and the shape is the ordinary one: positions held far in excess of daily flow.

Washington aerospace manufacturing traded $160 but holds 115,433 of open interest, still the deepest book here. Wisconsin manufacturing holds 82,470, Washington professional and technical services 55,296 and Wyoming coal 47,726.

Wisconsin manufacturing is the busiest book today, $20,706, almost all of it on rungs outside the five shown here. Wyoming coal took $7,348, and its Above 200 MMst rung has fallen to 33.5%, from 81.5%. Ohio manufacturing is 61.5%, from 59%. Arizona semiconductor employment sits at 10.5% and Kentucky distilleries at 4.5%.

Pennsylvania's open rung has softened again: Above 555,000 jobs is 59.5%, from 62.5%, on 32,333 of open interest.

Every contract here settles off a published government series, BLS state employment and EIA coal production, which makes the resolution criteria unusually clean for an event contract.

The three ladders that carry the category, all settling in the first half of 2027 off BLS state employment data. Washington aerospace prices Above 83,000 jobs at 87.5% and Above 84,000 at 41.5%; Wisconsin manufacturing Above 455,000 at 74.5% and Above 457,500 at 36%; Washington technical services Above 250,000 at 93.5% and Above 255,000 at 78.5%. Beside them, the price history of the aerospace ladder.

Wisconsin's ladder holds its step up from September. The 455,000-job rung, a coin flip at 52% in September, is 74.5% now, and the rung above it, Above 457,500, is 36%, from 41.5%, without a trade in the past day; the book's $20,706 of trade fell on other rungs. Washington aerospace's open rung, Above 84,000 jobs, has slipped below even to 41.5%, from 56.5%, on $46 of trade and 15,221 of open interest; the 83,000 rung below it is 87.5%.

The single-name books, one contract each. Arizona semiconductors at 10.5% and Kentucky distilleries at 4.5% were the two genuinely uncertain ones in September, at 29% and 39%; Arizona took $407 today and Kentucky $2,287. Ohio manufacturing is 61.5%, up from 59%, on $676 today and 19,979 of open interest. Pennsylvania's ladder puts Above 555,000 jobs at 59.5%, its open rung and nearly all the day's trade, $3,531, with Above 550,000 at 94.5% and Above 560,000 at 7.5%.

Two state coal ladders. Kentucky's 2027 contract is the longest-dated instrument on this page, settling May 2028, and did not trade; its 22-million-ton rung is 69.5%, up from 47% in September, and the open rung is Above 24 million short tons at 35.5%. Wyoming's 2026 book took $7,348, nearly all of it on the two upper rungs: Above 200 MMst has fallen to 33.5%, from 81.5%, on $2,533, and Above 210 MMst to 6.5%, from 24.5%, on $4,815, while Above 190 MMst holds at 96.5%; the book has 47,726 of open interest. The line has moved from between 200 and 210 million tons to between 190 and 200.

Whether the volume comes back. $160,000 a day in September, about $35,200 now, most of it on Wisconsin manufacturing. The churn that outran open interest looks like a listing-period effect; watch whether new data releases revive it.

Kentucky distilleries at 4.5%. The nearest contract to settle, on December 9, down from 11.5%.

Ohio manufacturing at 61.5%. Marks like that move on published data, and the next state employment release tests them, as it does Arizona at 10.5%.

Wyoming coal. Above 200 MMst at 33.5%, from 81.5%; the 2026 total now prices between 190 and 200 million tons.

Wisconsin's ladder. The line sits between 455,000 jobs at 74.5% and 457,500 at 36%. Manufacturing employment revisions are large and frequent.

Pennsylvania at 555,000 jobs. The rung with the most open interest on its ladder, now 59.5%.

Whether anyone else lists a mirror. This is still entirely a Kalshi category.