State Economy Markets 2026-27

Kalshi has quietly built a templated series on state-level economic statistics—industry employment and mineral production—and it now turns $160,000 a day with almost nothing on the board about it. Nobody covers this category. It is the largest wholly untracked complex on the exchange.

Washington aerospace manufacturing employment turns $53,752. Wisconsin manufacturing $43,853. Washington professional and technical services $38,446. Kentucky coal production for 2027 $14,111 and Wyoming coal $9,625.

Two things make this complex behave unlike anything else in this catalog.

Volume exceeds open interest, on contracts that settle in 2027 and 2028. Washington aerospace turns $53,752 a day against $32,679 of open interest—the whole book changes hands more than one and a half times daily, on a number that will not be published until May 2027. Wisconsin runs $43,853 against $33,612; Washington tech $38,446 against $25,058. Every other page in this catalog shows the reverse—positions held far in excess of daily flow. Here the positions are churned.

The money is buying near-certainties, not longshots. Washington aerospace put $15,363 through its 93% rung and $11,646 through its 85% rung. Wisconsin put $18,107 through its 97% rung. That is the opposite of the pattern this catalog documents almost everywhere else, where the deepest flow sits on legs priced under 5%. Somebody here is collecting a few cents of yield on outcomes the market already regards as settled.

And the single-name books hold positions nobody trades. Arizona semiconductor employment prices at 29% and holds $6,638 on $32 of daily volume. Ohio manufacturing holds $3,617 and traded nothing. Kentucky distilleries: 39%, $1,782, $100. Pennsylvania and Missouri manufacturing show no volume, no open interest, and quoted midpoints anyway—93.5%, 87.5%, 48.5%, 21.5% on the Pennsylvania ladder, against a zero last on every rung. Those are synthetic marks on an empty book.

Every contract here settles off a published government series—BLS state employment and EIA coal production—which makes the resolution criteria unusually clean for an event contract.

The three books that carry the category. All three are Cumulative ladders settling in the first half of 2027 off BLS annual-average state employment data, and all three turn more volume in a day than they hold in open interest.

Wisconsin's 455,000-job rung is the one genuine coin flip in the complex at 52%. Washington aerospace's 83,000-job rung sits at 85% and took $11,646 of the day's flow—the yield trade, not the toss-up.

The single-name books: one contract each, mostly held rather than traded. Arizona semiconductors at 29% and Kentucky distilleries at 39% are the only two the market thinks are genuinely uncertain, and they are the two with almost no volume. Pennsylvania's ladder has no volume and no open interest on any rung, and quotes midpoints anyway.

Two state coal ladders. Kentucky's 2027 contract is the longest-dated instrument on this page, settling May 2028, and its 22-million-ton rung is priced at a near-even 47%. Wyoming's 2026 book is the one place in this complex where open interest ($16,170) exceeds daily volume ($9,625).

Whether volume keeps outrunning open interest. $53,752 of daily turnover against $32,679 held, on a May 2027 settlement, is the defining oddity here. Either a market maker is quoting both sides into thin retail flow, or something is being traded intraday on a number that only updates monthly. Watch the ratio rather than the level.

The yield trade. $15,363 through a 93% rung and $18,107 through a 97% rung. Buying near-certainties for a few cents is a coherent strategy on a clean government-data settlement, and it is the inverse of the longshot-chasing pattern this catalog documents nearly everywhere else. If it persists, this complex is being traded by a different kind of participant.

Pennsylvania and Missouri. Quoted midpoints, zero volume, zero open interest. Templated series get listed whether or not anyone shows up. Watch whether either book ever draws a real quote—it is a live test of how far Kalshi's templating runs ahead of demand.

Wisconsin's 455,000 rung at 52%. The only true coin flip in the complex, on a number BLS publishes in early 2027. Manufacturing employment revisions are large and frequent; this rung will move on data nobody else is watching.

Kentucky coal at 47% for 22 million tons. The longest-dated contract here, settling May 2028, on a series with a clear secular trend. A near-even price on a declining production series is either a genuine disagreement about the trend or a book with nobody on the other side.

Whether Polymarket or anyone else lists a mirror. Right now this is entirely a Kalshi category. State-level BLS and EIA series are public and unambiguous; there is no structural reason a second exchange could not list them.