Stanley Cup 2027

Kalshi lists the 2027 Stanley Cup three ways: an outright book and two conference books. In September they contradicted each other, with Philadelphia 32% to win the East and 2% to win the Cup. Those quotes did not survive real volume, and the three books have agreed since.

Colorado leads the outright at 12.5%, then Florida at 10.5%, Carolina 9.5%, Edmonton 8.5% and Vegas 7.5%. The conference books line up with it: Colorado 19.5% in the West, Florida and Carolina level at 16.5% in the East.

Polymarket's outright now sits beside Kalshi's, and it has the same favorite. Colorado is 11.5% there, with Carolina at 9.5% and Edmonton and Florida at 8.5% each, on $17,760 a day against Kalshi's $100,970.

The outright settles by July 1, 2027.

Kalshi's outright on the left and Polymarket's on the right. Kalshi: Colorado 12.5%, Florida 10.5%, Carolina 9.5%, on $100,970. Polymarket: Colorado 11.5%, Carolina 9.5%, Edmonton and Florida 8.5%, on $17,760. The venues agree on the favorite and differ on Florida, two points higher on Kalshi.

East: Florida 16.5%, Carolina 16.5%, Tampa Bay 12.5%, Washington 12%, Buffalo 6.5%. West: Colorado 19.5%, Edmonton 16.5%, Dallas 11.5%, Vegas 11.5%, Minnesota 11%. The East turned $9,614 and the West $734.

The East's co-favorite on both Kalshi books. 16.5% to win the conference, 10.5% to win the Cup: the pair implies Florida wins about 64% of the Finals it reaches. Carolina, level with it in the East at 16.5%, is 9.5% in the outright.

The same test in the West. Colorado: 19.5% to win the conference, 12.5% to win the Cup, an implied 64% in the Final, the same rate the Florida pair implies.

Two teams from the bottom of the outright board. When this page was reviewed on October 1, St. Louis at 1% and Philadelphia at 1.5% took $23,370 between them, about a tenth of the outright's day. The two widgets below show where each stands now.

• Colorado at 12.5% and 19.5%. The favorite in both Kalshi books it appears in, and on Polymarket at 11.5%.
• Florida and Carolina, level in the East at 16.5%. The outright separates them by a point, 10.5% to 9.5%.
• The implied Final win rates run high. Florida's pair and Colorado's each imply about 64%, and the two cannot both hold if they meet. Either the conference prices are low or the outright prices are high.
• Florida across venues. 10.5% on Kalshi against 8.5% on Polymarket, the widest gap among the leaders.
• The Hart Trophy board: Macklin Celebrini 23.5%, Connor McDavid 20.5%, Nikita Kucherov 15%, Nathan MacKinnon 14.5%, Quinn Hughes 12%, on $2,939.
• Volume. The outright turned $100,970, down from $230,737 at the start of the month; expect the books to move once results arrive.