Stanley Cup 2027

Kalshi lists the 2027 Stanley Cup three ways: an outright book and two conference books. In September they contradicted each other, with Philadelphia 32% to win the East and 2% to win the Cup. Those quotes did not survive real volume, and the three books have broadly agreed since.

Colorado leads the outright at 12.5%, then Florida at 10.5%, Carolina 9.5%, Edmonton 8.5% and Minnesota 7.5%. The West book lines up with it, Colorado 19.5%; the East has moved, with Carolina now 20% and Florida 17.5% where the two were level at 16.5%.

Polymarket's outright sits beside Kalshi's, and it has the same favorite. Colorado is 12% there, with Carolina at 9.5% and Edmonton and Florida at 8.5% each, on $37,592 a day against Kalshi's $44,361. Two weeks ago Kalshi's book was nearly six times Polymarket's.

The outright settles by July 1, 2027.

Kalshi's outright on the left and Polymarket's on the right. Kalshi: Colorado 12.5%, Florida 10.5%, Carolina 9.5%, on $44,361. Polymarket: Colorado 12%, Carolina 9.5%, Edmonton and Florida 8.5%, on $37,592. The venues agree on the favorite and differ on Florida, two points higher on Kalshi. Minnesota, 7.5% and 7.7%, was the busiest leg on both, $6,527 and $9,711.

East: Carolina 20%, Florida 17.5%, Washington 13%, Tampa Bay 12.5%, Montreal 6.5%. West: Colorado 19.5%, Edmonton 16.5%, Minnesota 11.5%, Vegas 11.5%, Dallas 10.5%. The East turned $4,302 and the West $1,340.

The East's second choice on both Kalshi books. 17.5% to win the conference, 10.5% to win the Cup: the pair implies Florida wins about 60% of the Finals it reaches. Carolina, now ahead of it in the East at 20%, is 9.5% in the outright, an implied 47.5%; the conference book has moved toward Carolina and the outright has not.

The same test in the West. Colorado: 19.5% to win the conference, 12.5% to win the Cup, an implied 64% in the Final, a little above the rate the Florida pair implies.

Two teams from the bottom of the outright board. At the start of October, St. Louis at 1% and Philadelphia at 1.5% took $23,370 between them, about a tenth of the outright's day. The prices are unchanged and the money has gone: $105 and $94 today.

• Colorado at 12.5% and 19.5%. The favorite in both Kalshi books it appears in, and on Polymarket at 12%.
• Carolina ahead in the East, 20% to Florida's 17.5%. The outright still has them the other way round, 9.5% to 10.5%.
• The implied Final win rates disagree. Colorado's pair implies about 64%, Florida's 60% and Carolina's 47.5%. Either Carolina's conference price is high or its outright price is low.
• Florida across venues. 10.5% on Kalshi against 8.5% on Polymarket, the widest gap among the leaders.
• The Hart Trophy board: Macklin Celebrini 19.5%, Nathan MacKinnon 12%, Connor McDavid 11.55%, David Pastrnak 10%, Quinn Hughes 9.85%, on $373.
• Volume. The outright turned $44,361, down from $100,970 at the start of the month, while Polymarket's doubled to $37,592.