SpaceX IPO Tracker

Nasdaq's notice to market data vendors lists Anthropic, PBC Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under ANT, with trading expected from November 19. The S-1 went public on October 26, and the roadshow opened the week of November 9.

Polymarket prices Anthropic IPOs by November 23 at 95.45%, by November 25 97.35% and by November 30 97.5%, then 97.9% by December 15 and 97.95% by December 31. The book turned $141,131 in the past day; $35,009 went to the December 31 leg, $8,607 to December 15 and $7,816 to November 30.

Kalshi's question is the announcement, not the listing: before Dec 1 97.5%; before Jan 1, 2027 98.5%; before Feb 1, Mar 1 and Apr 1 99% each, on $348,103, led by the December 1 leg at $38,702 and January 1 at $24,762.

The ordering holds. Kalshi's Anthropic announces an IPO this year is 98.5%, level with its own dated January 1 leg and at or above Polymarket's 97.95% to list by December 31 and its Anthropic leg on the IPOs-before-2027 board at 97.35%, as announcing must come before listing.

OpenAI is about 2.8% on Polymarket's market-cap board, where No IPO by December 31 is 97.2%. Boards on Anthropic's closing market cap are tracked on a separate page.

OpenAI was the second name on every IPO book. It isn't now. Polymarket's market-cap board prices No IPO by December 31 at 97.2%, which puts a 2026 listing at about 2.8%. The board turned $5,541 in the past day, only $51 of it on that leg; the rest went to the valuation buckets, led by 1T–1.25T at $1,581.

OpenAI does not appear among the five highest-priced names on Kalshi's announcement book or Polymarket's listing book, where it once stood at 18.5% and 11.5%.

If it does list this year, the board has no view on size: 1.5T+ prices 0.9%, <500B 0.85%, 500–750B 0.7% and 1T–1.25T 0.65%.

Flight 15 had not flown as of November 11. SpaceX is targeting November 13 from Starbase, with a first attempt to catch the ship on the tower; reporting says a license change for that catch still awaited FAA approval. Polymarket: by November 15 55%, by November 30 95.5%. Manifold: before December 1 87.55% and before 2027 97.48%. Polymarket prices a booster catch at 75.5%, a ship catch at 40% and a successful splashdown at 28%, on $855.

The November launch count, which the countdown tracks, settles December 7: Above 7 is 79.5% and Above 8 32.5%, so the book now centers on eight launches rather than nine; Above 6 is 97% and Above 9 2.5%. It turned $9,028 in the past day, $3,895 of it on Above 9 and $2,956 on Above 8.

The annual reach-space book has 4 launches at 63% and 5 at 17%, on $382.

KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27 holds $748,203 of open interest and turned $3,185 in the past day. Before Feb 1, 2027 prices 26%, Before Mar 1 26.5%, Before Apr 1 45.5%, Before May 1 58.5% and Before 2028 74%. The March 1 leg took the most, $937, ahead of May 1 at $833.

March fell since the last review, from 37.5% to 26.5%, leaving February and March nearly level; April 1 eased from 46% to 45.5%, and May 1 rose from 57.5% to 58.5%. The market puts a Tesla–SpaceX merger just under even by April and about three in four before 2028.

Beside it, the year-end leg on its own.

Anthropic leads every board. Kalshi's named-company book gives it 98.5% to announce this year, ahead of Kraken at 4%, Discord and DeepSeek at 3.5% each and Skims at 3%, on $13,853, of which $11,212 went to Kraken. Polymarket's: Anthropic 97.35%, Perplexity 10.45%, Celonis 7.25%, Remote 6.7%, Ledger 5.75%.

OpenAI does not appear among the five highest-priced names on either board.

The OpenAI market-cap board says the same: No IPO by December 31 at 97.2%. No valuation bucket prices above 0.9%.

Polymarket's Anthropic book turned $141,131, with the most money on the December 31 leg.

• Nasdaq lists Anthropic's ANT from November 19 on the Global Select Market. Polymarket prices the IPO at 95.45% by November 23 and 97.5% by November 30.
• Kalshi prices the announcement at 97.5% before December 1 and 98.5% before January.
• Announcing still prices at or above listing: Kalshi's 98.5% on the named-company book against Polymarket's 97.95% by December 31 and 97.35% before 2027.
• Anthropic's closing market cap is tracked on a separate page.
• The Tesla–SpaceX merger ladder: 26.5% by March 1 and 45.5% by April 1.
• November's SpaceX launch count: Above 7 is 79.5% and Above 8 32.5%, settling December 7.
• Starship 15 targets November 13: Polymarket 55% by November 15 and 95.5% by November 30, Manifold 87.55% before December 1; a ship catch is 40%.
• OpenAI is about 2.8% on Polymarket's market-cap board.