SpaceX IPO Tracker

Both exchanges have marked Anthropic's IPO down since last week, and both still place it in late November or later.

Polymarket prices Anthropic IPOs by October 31 at 0.85%, by November 15 at 10.5% and by November 30 at 67.5%, a 57-point jump across the second half of November, then 74.5% by December 15 and 75.5% by December 31. The book turned $28,602 today, $13,121 of it on the October leg.

Kalshi's question is the announcement, not the listing: before Dec 1 63%, down from 73%; before Jan 1, 2027 73% on $13,762 of volume; before Feb 1 and before Mar 1 83%; before Apr 1 86%.

The ordering is still backwards. Polymarket's Anthropic leg on its IPOs-before-2027 board marks 77.5%; Kalshi's Anthropic announces an IPO this year marks 76%. Announcing must precede listing, so the first number can't exceed the second.

OpenAI is still about 4.6% on Polymarket's market-cap board, where No IPO by December 31 is 95.4%.

OpenAI was the second name on every IPO book. It isn't now. Polymarket's market-cap board prices No IPO by December 31 at 95.4%, which puts a 2026 listing at about 4.6%. The board turned only $105 today.

OpenAI does not appear among the five highest-priced names on Kalshi's announcement book or Polymarket's listing book, where it once stood at 18.5% and 11.5%.

If it does list this year, the board has no view on size: 1.5T+ prices 1.05%, and nothing else is above 0.7%.

Flight 15 is priced on two venues, and both put it in November. Polymarket: by October 31 6.45%, down from 34.5%, by November 15 55.5%, by November 30 87.5%. Manifold: before December 1 79.8%, before 2027 92.5%. Polymarket prices a booster catch at 50.5% and a successful splashdown at 36.5%.

October's launch count has come down hard: Above 8 89.5%, Above 9 68%, and Above 10 19.5%, from 72% a week ago, on a $15,458 day. It settles November 7.

The annual reach-space book has 5 launches at 44% and 4 at 38.5%, on $2,694.

KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27 holds $925,658 and turned $7,625. Before Jan 1, 2027 prices 12.5%; then Before Feb 1 20%, Before Mar 1 30%, Before Apr 1 33.5%, Before May 1 39.5%, Before 2028 63.5%. Before Jan 1, 2027 took $1,095, the most of any leg.

The ladder has flattened since last week: April 1 is down eight points to 33.5%, and the year-end leg a point to 12.5%. The market still says a Tesla–SpaceX merger is probably not a 2026 event, and no longer near even money by spring.

Beside it, the year-end leg on its own.

Anthropic leads every board, by less than it did. Kalshi's named-company book gives it 76% to announce this year, ahead of Discord at 13%, Kraken at 8.5%, Gopuff at 8% and Oura at 7%. Polymarket's: Anthropic 77.5%, Discord 9.1%, Perplexity 4.05%, Stripe 3.95%, Revolut 3.75%.

OpenAI does not appear among the five highest-priced names on either board.

The OpenAI market-cap board says the same: No IPO by December 31 at 95.4%. No valuation bucket prices above 1.05%.

Polymarket's Anthropic book turned $28,602, with $13,121 of it still trading the October 31 leg at 0.85%.

• Anthropic's listing is a late-November question. Polymarket jumps from 10.5% by November 15 to 67.5% by November 30; October 31 is 0.85%.
• Kalshi prices the announcement at 63% before December 1 and 73% before January, each down from last week.
• Polymarket still prices the listing above the announcement: 77.5% to list before 2027 against Kalshi's 76% to announce this year.
• OpenAI is about 4.6% on Polymarket's market-cap board.
• October's SpaceX launch count: Above 10 has fallen to 19.5%, settling November 7.
• Starship 15 is a November flight on both venues: Polymarket 87.5% by November 30, Manifold 79.8% before December 1.
• The Tesla–SpaceX merger ladder prices 12.5% by year-end and 33.5% by April 1, on $925,658 held.