South Carolina Senate 2026 — Graham vs Andrews

The 13.5% side of this race holds more than twice the position of the 86.5% side. Kalshi prices Darline Graham at 86.5% against Annie Andrews at 13.5%, and the Andrews leg carries 1,003,391 of open interest against Graham's 471,589. In mid-September the gap was 47%. The book turned $54,839 today, eleven times its September day, and $49,361 of it traded on Andrews.

Polymarket has woken up too. Its book prices Graham at 85.5% and turned $37,550, from under $1,000 in September, nearly all of it on the favorite.

The margin ladder has moved toward a closer race. Graham by 5+ is 44% and 7+ 29%, where in September 7+ was the rung near even. The ladder now implies a win of about five points, and the 5+ rung took $2,592 of its $2,718 day. The turnout ladder still has not traded.

South Carolina is still not on the closest-race board. Kalshi's Closest Senate race in 2026 book puts Iowa at 17.5%, Texas at 12.5% and Kansas at 9.5%; South Carolina does not appear near the top.

The seat in November, on both exchanges. Kalshi holds 1,474,979 of open interest across two contracts—Graham at 86.5%, Andrews at 13.5%—and turned $54,839. Polymarket prices the same binary at 85.5% Republican / 14.5% Democrat on $37,550 of flow, a point softer on the favorite.

The two books trade opposite sides: 90% of Kalshi's day went to Andrews, and 98% of Polymarket's to Graham.

The national frame, and how big the win is expected to be.

Kalshi's Closest Senate race in 2026 book turned $7,334 on 472,027 of open interest. Iowa leads at 17.5%, then Texas 12.5%, Kansas 9.5%, Maine 9.05% and Ohio 8.5%. Texas took the most, $1,481.

The South Carolina margin ladder beside it now implies about a five-point Republican win: 1+ pts 80.5%, 3+ 70%, 5+ 44%, 7+ 29%, 9+ 20.5%. It holds 50,120 of open interest, up from about 7,400 in September, and nearly all of today's $2,718 traded on the 5+ rung.

Two general-election books with almost nothing behind them.

Turnout runs Above 1.68M at 71.5%, Above 1.76M at 63.5%, Above 1.85M at 54.5%, Above 1.93M at 47.5% and Above 2.00M at 31%—properly ordered, higher than in September, and still without a trade on any rung.

House seats asks how many of South Carolina's seven districts Democrats take. 1 prices 75%, 2 is 21% and Above 2 7.5%. In September the last two were priced the same; the book has since separated them, without trading today.

Kalshi's two legs, side by side. Graham prices 86.5% and holds 471,589 of open interest. Andrews prices 13.5% and holds 1,003,391. The side priced to lose carries more than twice the standing position, and today it took nine tenths of the flow: $49,361 against $5,477.

• The Democratic leg holds 1,003,391 of open interest against the Republican leg's 471,589, on a race priced 86.5 / 13.5. This is the cleanest instance in the catalog of position running opposite to probability, and the gap has widened since September.
• The price has not followed the position. Andrews was 13.5% in mid-September and is 13.5% now, after a day in which her leg took $49,361.
• The margin ladder has come in. 5+ at 44% and 7+ at 29% imply a win of about five points, down from seven.
• Polymarket is trading. $37,550 today, almost all on Graham at 85.5%.
• South Carolina is not a close race and Kalshi agrees. The closest-race board is led by Iowa at 17.5% and Texas at 12.5%, and does not list this state near the top.