South Carolina Senate 2026 — Graham vs Andrews

The 13.5% side of this race holds 47% more money than the 87.5% side. Kalshi prices Darline Graham at 87.5% against Annie Andrews at 13.5%, and the Andrews leg carries $379,504 of open interest against Graham's $257,613. The book turns $4,933 a day on $637,117 held—a 129-to-1 ratio—and the deeper position is the one the market says will lose.

The primary books have all settled. The Republican runoff, its margin ladder, its turnout book, the county map and both candidate vote-share ladders are gone; the last of them cleared over the weekend. Every rung in that group had been frozen at exactly 50.0% for days while holding $2.2 million, which is what this page spent August documenting. What replaces them is the general-election stack.

The general-election ladders are ordered and empty. The margin book runs Republicans, 1+ pts at 92.4%, 3+ at 78.5%, 5+ at 64%, 7+ at 47.5% and 11+ at 22.5%—a clean monotone chain implying roughly a seven-point Republican win. It holds $7,447 and turned $81. The turnout ladder holds $959 and has never traded.

South Carolina is not on the closest-race board. Kalshi's Closest Senate race in 2026 book puts Texas and Iowa at 12.5%, Alaska at 10.5% and Ohio at 10%; South Carolina does not appear near the top. The state that produced the most-frozen books in this catalog is priced as one of the least competitive races in it.

The seat in November, on both exchanges. Kalshi holds $637,117 across two contracts—Graham at 87.5%, Andrews at 13.5%—and turns $4,933. Polymarket prices the same binary at 85.5% Republican / 14% Democrat on $970 of flow, two points softer on the favorite.

The Kalshi book is the deeper of the two by three orders of magnitude, and its Democratic leg holds more than its Republican one.

The national frame, and how big the win is expected to be.

Kalshi's Closest Senate race in 2026 book holds $275,001 and turns $6,424. Texas and Iowa lead at 12.5%, Alaska 10.5%, Ohio 10%, Michigan 9.85%—a genuinely flat board across seventeen states, with nine of them never traded. Texas took $4,350, and Georgia at 1.3% took $1,067, the second-heaviest flow in the book.

The South Carolina margin ladder beside it implies about a seven-point Republican win: 1+ pts 92.4%, 5+ 64%, 7+ 47.5%, 11+ 22.5%. It holds $7,447 and traded $81, with eight of its ten rungs untouched.

Two general-election books with almost nothing behind them.

Turnout runs Above 1.68M at 63.5%, Above 1.76M at 49.5%, Above 1.85M at 36.5% and Above 1.93M at 24.5%—properly ordered, $959 held, and not one trade across any rung.

House seats asks how many of South Carolina's seven districts Democrats take. 1 prices 74%, and then 2 and Above 2 price 16.5% and 16%—effectively the same number for two different outcomes—while holding $4,082 and $4,655. The book carries $13,854 on $38 a day.

Kalshi's two legs, side by side. Graham prices 87.5% and holds $257,613. Andrews prices 13.5% and holds $379,504. The losing side of this race carries $121,891 more standing position than the winning side, and today the two legs traded $2,601 and $2,333—almost evenly, on an eight-to-one price.

• The Democratic leg holds $379,504 against the Republican leg's $257,613, on a race priced 87.5 / 13.5. Today the two took $2,601 and $2,333—nearly even flow at an eight-to-one price. This is the cleanest instance in the catalog of position running opposite to probability.
• The primary stack is gone. Runoff winner, margin, turnout, county map and both vote-share ladders all settled. Every one of them sat frozen at exactly 50.0% while holding $2.2 million; the defect resolved by settlement rather than by repricing.
• The general-election ladders are correct and empty. The margin chain is monotone through five rungs and turned $81. The turnout chain has never traded at all.
• The House-seat book prices two different outcomes the same. 2 at 16.5% and Above 2 at 16%, holding $4,082 and $4,655. A Range book should separate those.
• South Carolina is not a close race and Kalshi agrees. The closest-race board puts Texas and Iowa at 12.5% and does not list this state near the top—while Georgia at 1.3% took the board's second-heaviest flow.