Next SCOTUS Vacancy

Supreme Court vacancy markets are built to reprice on a retirement report, and most days they barely trade. The page turned $7,781 in a day, nearly all on two Kalshi ladders: $3,285 on the confirmation ladder, $2,131 of it on the before-2027 leg, and $3,281 on Alito's retirement ladder, $2,675 on the leg that settles January 1. The next-justice field took $1,179, none of it on its five leaders.

Alito now leads Kalshi's resignation board alone, at 36%, with Clarence Thomas at 22% and John Roberts at 21.5%; on November 2 Alito and Thomas were level at 53.5%. Manifold's two community books still put Alito first, at 54% and 57.1%, with Thomas at 25.2% and 27.3%.

The replacement field has thinned out. Ted Cruz leads Kalshi's next-justice book at 6.05%, then Andrew Oldham at 5.1% and Mike Lee at 3.85%.

Two dated ladders on when a seat opens and is filled.

New justice confirmed: 3.65% before 2027, 11.5% before June 2027, 14% before 2028 and 56.5% before January 21, 2029. The before-2027 leg took $2,131 of the ladder's $3,285, the before-2028 leg $658 and the farthest leg $496.

Alito's retirement: 5.4% before January 1, 2027 and 17% before July 1, 2027, on $3,281, of which $2,675 was on the nearer leg. That leg was 19.5% on November 2 and 6.85% in mid-October: the late-October run-up has fully reversed.

The ladders line up. A confirmation before 2027 at 3.65% sits below Alito retiring by then at 5.4%, and any new justice confirmed before January 21, 2029 at 56.5% is well above Alito's 36% resignation leg, leaving room for a seat opening elsewhere on the Court.

Two adjacent books that price what the Court does rather than who sits on it. Whether the Court overturns Obergefell before 2029 is 7.45%, on $4. Beside it, the certiorari board on which cases the Court agrees to hear in 2026 has no clear leader: Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists at 6.5%, Republican National Committee v. Eakin and Duncan v. Bonta at 6% each, Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche 5.5% and Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice 3%. Roybal v. Griffith, which led at 60.5% on November 2, is no longer among the leaders; the board turned $32, all of it on Buenrostro-Mendez.

Kalshi's Categorical on who the next Supreme Court justice is. Ted Cruz leads at 6.05%, then Andrew Oldham at 5.1%, Mike Lee at 3.85%, Michael Park at 3% and Emil Bove at 2.35%. The book turned $1,179, none of it on those five. On November 2 Cruz, D. John Sauer and Oldham sat between 10.5% and 11.55%; Cruz and Oldham have roughly halved and Sauer is no longer in the top five. Beside it, Kalshi's resignation board: Alito at 36%, Thomas 22%, John Roberts 21.5%, Sonia Sotomayor 7.25% and Elena Kagan 4.5%, each leg priced on its own; none traded.

Manifold's two community forecasts on which sitting justice departs first. Both put Alito first, at 54% and 57.1%, with Thomas at 25.2% and 27.3%. They part on Sonia Sotomayor: 14.05% on the first book, 4.44% on the second, which settles at the start of 2027. Neither traded.

Kalshi's resignation board is not a single-winner book, so its legs do not sum: Alito at 36%, Thomas at 22% and Roberts at 21.5% each price a resignation before January 2029 on its own. Alito leads there too, but no justice is now priced better than even to go.

• Alito alone at the top. 36% on Kalshi's resignation board, ahead of Thomas at 22% and Roberts at 21.5%; both Manifold books agree on the order of the top two.
• Alito before January 1, 2027 at 5.4%. Down from 19.5% on November 2, on $2,675 of trade; it settles in under two months.
• A thin replacement field. Cruz 6.05%, Oldham 5.1%, Lee 3.85%, with no trade on any of them. Read these as quotes more than a consensus.
• Confirmation before 2029 at 56.5%, and 3.65% before 2027.
• A cert board with no leader. Moylan tops it at 6.5%; Roybal v. Griffith is no longer listed among the leaders.
• Obergefell at 7.45%.
• The trigger: any health or retirement report on Alito or Thomas is the event this whole stack exists to reprice on.