Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Tracker

The market expects this war to stop in 2027, not 2026.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? now runs to the end of 2027 and holds $755,625 of open interest. Its far rungs price a ceasefire at 57% by August 31, 2027, 60% by September 30, 64.5% by November 30 and 68.5% by December 31, 2027. Those rungs barely trade: none took more than $115 of the book's $56,138 day, so the money is in the nearer rungs, as it was in September.

For this year the cleaner read is the binary. Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027 prices 9.5%, on $6,142.

Escalation still prices above settlement. A NATO–Russia military clash by December 31 is 22.5%, more than twice the peace-deal price over the same window, and the clash ladder's October 31 rung at 11.5% took $59,453—more than the whole ceasefire book.

The territory book has collapsed. Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31 was a 51.5% coin flip three weeks ago. It is 21.5%.

The ceasefire ladder against Manifold's independent timeline. Polymarket's far end reads 57% by August 31, 2027, 60% by September 30, 60.5% by October 31, 64.5% by November 30, 68.5% by December 31, 2027—a slow, orderly climb with no discontinuity, which is what a market with no information looks like. Manifold's play-money book is the only cross-exchange mirror listed, and it is more cautious: 51.2% before 2028, 61.2% before mid-2028 and 74.5% before 2030.

Escalation is priced higher than settlement, and the territory book is no longer a coin flip.

A NATO–Russia military clash by December 31 sits at 22.5%, and by October 31 at 11.5% on $59,453—the busiest leg on this page. A signed peace deal before 2027 is 9.5%. The market thinks NATO and Russia clashing by year end is more than twice as likely as Russia and Ukraine signing anything by year end.

Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31 has fallen to 21.5% from 51.5%, on $3,390; the October 31 rung is 2.1%. Below, Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory prices 2.5% by December 31 and 9.5% by June 30, 2027, and US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027 is 2.9%.

Trump–Putin has flipped. China now prices 72% as the place the two meet next in 2026, and no meeting by December 31 is 17.5%; three weeks ago they were 39.5% and 58.5%. The United States is 4.1%. The book turned $19,195, with $6,535 on China.

Zelenskyy–Putin has not moved: no meeting before 2027 at 94%, on $1,468, with every venue at 1% or less.

Putin out by December 31, 2026 prices 2.9%, and by June 30, 2027 10%, on $27,929—$19,990 of it on the year-end rung, against $7.87M of open interest. Zelenskyy out by the end of 2026 is 5.5%, down from 8.5%, on $6,816. Neither leadership book is where the risk is being expressed; that sits in the NATO-clash ladder above.

• The ceasefire is a 2027 price. 57% by August 31, 2027 and 68.5% by the end of that year, against 9.5% for a signed peace deal before 2027.
• Escalation prices above settlement. NATO–Russia clash by December 31 at 22.5%; its October 31 rung at 11.5% took $59,453, the busiest leg on the page.
• Kostyantynivka at 21.5%. The territory contract that was the page's one coin flip in September has lost thirty points.
• China at 72%. The Trump–Putin book now expects a meeting, and expects it in China. No meeting by December 31 has fallen from 58.5% to 17.5%.
• What is not listed. No supported exchange carries a Kalshi book on the ceasefire itself: the whole term structure is Polymarket, with Manifold as the only mirror and no real-money second opinion. Remember that before reading any single price as consensus.