Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Tracker

The market expects this war to stop in 2027, not 2026.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? runs to the end of 2027 and holds $681,801 of open interest. Its far rungs price a ceasefire at 63.5% by August 31, 2027, 63.5% by September 30, 66% by October 31, 68.5% by November 30 and 69.5% by December 31, 2027. Those rungs barely trade: none took more than $391 of the book's $42,983 day, so the money is in the nearer rungs.

For this year the cleaner read is the binary. Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027 prices 7.5%, down from 8.5%, on $2,813. The same book prices 25% by June 30, 2027 and 37% by December 31, 2027.

Escalation still prices above settlement, by less. A NATO–Russia military clash by December 31 is 13%, down from 15.5% and still well above the peace-deal price over the same window. Its December 31 rung took $10,378.

The territory book keeps falling. Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31 was a 51.5% coin flip in September and 10% at the last review. It is 8%.

The ceasefire ladder against Manifold's independent timeline. Polymarket's far end reads 63.5% by August 31, 2027, 63.5% by September 30, 66% by October 31, 68.5% by November 30, 69.5% by December 31, 2027: a slow climb with no discontinuity, which is what a market with no information looks like. Manifold's play-money book is the only cross-exchange mirror listed, and it is more cautious: 46.3% before 2028, 61.2% before mid-2028 and 73.4% before 2030.

Escalation is priced higher than settlement, though the gap has narrowed again, and the territory book is far from a coin flip.

A NATO–Russia military clash by December 31 sits at 13%, down from 15.5% at the last review; by November 30 it is 2.6% and by November 15 1.25%. The December 31 rung took $10,378 of the ladder's $16,018 day. A signed peace deal before 2027 is 7.5%. The market still thinks NATO and Russia clashing by year end is more likely than Russia and Ukraine signing anything by year end.

Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31 has fallen to 8% from 10%, on $2,183; by March 31, 2027 it is 30%, the busiest rung on the page at $67,063, and by June 30, 2027 56%. Below, Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory prices 1.35% by December 31 and 6.5% by June 30, 2027, and US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027 is 3.05%.

Trump–Putin still points to China. China prices 90.5% as the place the two meet next in 2026, and no meeting by December 31 is 9.5%; at the last review they were 80.5% and 15.5%, and in September 39.5% and 58.5%. The United States is 0.45%. The book turned $46,664, $12,324 of it on China.

Zelenskyy–Putin has barely moved: no meeting before 2027 at 96.2%, on $20,090, with every venue under 2%.

Putin out by December 31, 2026 prices 1.55%, and by June 30, 2027 8.5%, on $142,839, $135,796 of it on the year-end rung, against $6.91M of open interest. Zelenskyy out by the end of 2026 is 3.85% on $36,381. Neither leadership book is where the risk is being expressed; that sits in the NATO-clash ladder above.

• The ceasefire is a 2027 price. 63.5% by August 31, 2027 and 69.5% by the end of that year, against 7.5% for a signed peace deal before 2027.
• Escalation prices above settlement, by less. NATO–Russia clash by December 31 at 13%, down from 15.5%; the December 31 rung took $10,378.
• Kostyantynivka at 8%. The territory contract that was the page's one coin flip in September has lost more than forty points; its March 31, 2027 rung at 30% is where the money is, $67,063 on the day.
• China at 90.5%. The Trump–Putin book expects a meeting, and expects it in China. No meeting by December 31 is 9.5%, from 58.5% in September.
• What is not listed. No supported exchange carries a Kalshi book on the ceasefire itself: the whole term structure is Polymarket, with Manifold as the only mirror and no real-money second opinion. Remember that before reading any single price as consensus.