Powell at the Fed

Kevin Warsh chairs the Fed. Jerome Powell keeps a governor's seat whose term runs to January 31, 2028, and the contracts on this page price how long he stays in it.

The departure ladder has flattened since September. Kalshi prices a departure announcement at 3.5% before November, 8.5% before December, 16% before January 2027, 39.5% before June 2027 and 72% before the term ends. Three weeks ago the June 2027 leg was 62.5% and the end-of-term leg 83%: the market has taken more than twenty points out of a spring resignation and now leans toward Powell still being a governor next summer.

The exchanges agree at year end. Polymarket's one remaining leg, out by December 31, is 16.5% against Kalshi's 16%. It is also the busiest contract here, $1,785 of the page's $2,271.

Removal risk is small and flat. Kalshi prices Trump tries to fire Powell before 2027 at 10.35%; Polymarket prices 14% by October 31 and 14.5% by December 31.

Federal Reserve Board members.

The departure question on both exchanges. Polymarket is down to a single live leg, out by December 31, at 16.5% on $1,785. Kalshi's ladder runs from November 2026 to the end of the term in January 2028 and turned $258, almost all of it on the year-end leg.

They agree at year end, 16.5% against 16%. The earlier dated legs on both exchanges have dropped off as their dates passed.

Before January 2027 at 16% took $235, nearly all of Kalshi's volume on this question. Before June 2027 at 39.5% is where the repricing happened: it was 62.5% three weeks ago and has not traded today.

The step between them is now 23.5 points, about half what it was. A spring resignation has gone from the base case to less than even.

Removal risk, the whole story of the spring, is a residual. Kalshi's single contract prices an attempt to fire Powell before 2027 at 10.35%, up from 7% three weeks ago, on $63.

Polymarket's dated version has two live legs: 14% by October 31 and 14.5% by December 31. In September its nearer leg was priced above the later one that contains it. The ladder is back in order, and half a point for two extra months says the market sees almost no added risk after October.

• The June 2027 leg. 39.5%, down from 62.5%. Whether Powell serves out a term he has no obligation to finish is the open question on this page, and the market has moved toward yes.
• Year end, 16% and 16.5%. The only cross-exchange comparison on the departure question, half a point wide and three months from settling.
• The removal books. 10.35% on Kalshi against 14.5% on Polymarket for the same window: four points apart on a combined $228.
• Volume. $2,271 across the whole page. If a resignation is announced, these are the books that reprice, and they trade a few thousand dollars a day.
• Powell's vote. He remains a voting governor under Warsh. The two FOMC meetings left this year are where a dissent would show, and no contract here prices one.