Powell at the Fed

Kevin Warsh chairs the Fed. Jerome Powell keeps a governor's seat whose term runs to January 31, 2028, and the contracts on this page price how long he stays in it.

The departure ladder has moved back up after a long slide. Kalshi prices a departure announcement at 11.05% before January 2027, 21.5% before April 2027, 35% before June 2027, 56% before October 2027 and 67.5% before the term ends. On November 2 the June 2027 leg was 28.5% and the end-of-term leg 62.5%. Only the year-end leg traded, $62, so the other rungs are quotes rather than fresh trades.

The exchanges have swapped places at year end. Polymarket's one remaining leg, out by December 31, is 6% against Kalshi's 11.05%: Kalshi is now the higher of the two, by about five points.

Removal risk is still shrinking. Kalshi prices Trump tries to fire Powell before 2027 at 3.5%; Polymarket's by December 31 leg is 4%. Neither book traded.

Federal Reserve Board members.

The departure question on both exchanges. Polymarket is down to a single live leg, out by December 31, at 6%, on $915, the most of any book on the page. Kalshi's ladder runs from year end to the end of the term in January 2028 and turned $62, all of it on the year-end leg.

The year-end gap has flipped, 6% on Polymarket against 11.05% on Kalshi, from 10.5% against 7.2% on November 2: Polymarket's quote has fallen and Kalshi's has risen past it.

Before January 2027 at 11.05% holds the most open interest on Kalshi's ladder, 43,625, and took the ladder's only trade, $62. Before June 2027 at 35% holds 15,790 and did not trade.

The step between them is 23.95 points. A departure announced before June is priced at about one in three, and one before year end at about one in nine.

Removal risk, the whole story of the spring, is now a residual. Kalshi's single contract prices an attempt to fire Powell before 2027 at 3.5%, on 24,553 of open interest and no trade on the day.

Polymarket's dated version has one live leg, 4% by December 31, also untraded. It prices the same window half a point above Kalshi's contract; on November 2 the gap was two and a half points.

• Year end, 11.05% and 6%. The only cross-exchange comparison on the departure question, now with Kalshi on top, about five points apart and settling at the turn of the year.
• The June 2027 leg. 35%, up from 28.5% on November 2. Whether Powell serves out a term he has no obligation to finish is the open question on this page.
• The removal books. 3.5% on Kalshi against 4% on Polymarket for the same window; neither traded.
• Volume. The page turned under $1,000, $915 of it on Polymarket's departure leg. If a resignation is announced, these are the books that reprice.
• Powell's vote. He remains a voting governor under Warsh. The December FOMC meeting is the next place a dissent would show, and no contract here prices one.