Pete Hegseth Impeachment 2026

Rep. Thomas Massie's eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth never got an up-or-down vote. On November 10 the House voted 211–204 to refer them to the Judiciary Committee, a procedural motion that effectively ends the effort in the current Congress, with Massie the only Republican voting against it. Democrats take the House majority in January.

The markets moved the impeachment into 2027. Kalshi prices an impeachment before January 1, 2027 at 3.5% but before April 1 at 64.5%, and Polymarket's March 31, 2027 leg is 57%. This page follows the impeachment question into the new Congress, Republican support, a Senate trial and whether Hegseth stays in the job.

Kalshi's ladder turned $464,065 in the past day, most of it on the legs the referral decided: before November 21 at 1%, on $237,225, and before 2027 at 3.5%, on $205,418. The money left behind is on 2027: before April 1 at 64.5% and before July 1 at 70%. Polymarket agrees within a few points: December 31 at 3.05% on $203,139, March 31, 2027 at 57% and June 30, 2027 at 70.5%. Below, the two spring legs side by side.

Kalshi's board on whether the House votes at all is over. Its vote-count boards still trade and price little support before the new Congress is seated: House Republicans voting to impeach, at least 1 at 4.5% on $71,697, with every higher rung at 3.5% to 4.5%; and the total House members voting to impeach, above 210 at 8.5% and above 215 at 5.5%, on $14,020. Both boards settle by January 3, 2027.

Impeachment by the House doesn't remove him; conviction takes two-thirds of the Senate. Kalshi prices a Senate conviction before 2028 at 17.5%, on $1,225. The busier question is whether he leaves anyway: Kalshi's Hegseth-out ladder turned $566,743 in the past day, with before July 1, 2027 at 62% and before 2028 at 74.5%, and its before-2027 leg at 11.5%. Polymarket prices him out by December 31 at 13.5% on $250,763. The bottom row pairs the Senate contract with Kalshi's before-2027 exit leg.

• House roll call votes (Office of the Clerk)
• House floor: bills this week
• Congress.gov: legislation and resolutions

• January 3. The new House convenes with a Democratic majority; Kalshi's April 1 leg (64.5%) and Polymarket's March 31 leg (57%) price a renewed effort early in the session.
• Massie's next move. He said he would seek separate votes on each article; a floor vote before January would show up first in the 2026 legs, now 1% to 3.5%.
• The exit ladders. Kalshi's before-2027 exit leg is 11.5% and Polymarket's 13.5%; a resignation would settle those before any impeachment market.

House votes to effectively end the impeachment effort against Pete Hegseth

NPR

The House voted 211-204 on November 10 to refer Rep. Thomas Massie's articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Judiciary Committee.