Oklahoma Governor 2026

The general election is four weeks away and the two exchanges agree on who wins. Kalshi prices Republican Mike Mazzei at 91.3% and Democrat Cyndi Munson at 8.65%; Polymarket has them at 92.5% and 7.5%. In early September Kalshi was the richer venue on the upset by more than three points; the gap is now about one.

The race has started to trade, a little. Kalshi's winner board turned $6,715 in a day, $4,621 on Mazzei and $2,094 on Munson, against about $100 a day a month ago. Polymarket's turned $144, all on Munson.

The standing money is still on the long shot. Munson's Kalshi leg holds 76,159 of open interest at 8.65%; Mazzei's holds 23,558 at 91.3%, a ratio of about three to one.

The margin boards remain the weak point. Kalshi's ladder traded $412 and now puts Mazzei, 10+ pts at 51.5%, far below the nineteen-point median it showed in September; Polymarket's categorical board did not trade and puts its largest weight on a Republican win by 15 to 20 points.

Kalshi (left): Mazzei 91.3%, Munson 8.65%. Polymarket (right): Mazzei 92.5%, Munson 7.5%.

Kalshi's board traded $6,715 today and Polymarket's $144. The spread on the Democrat, 3.3 points in early September, is down to about one.

Cyndi Munson at 8.65% holds 76,159 of open interest. Mike Mazzei at 91.3% holds 23,558. On a two-outcome board with an 83-point favorite, the underdog carries three times the position, down from four and a half times in September as Mazzei's side has filled in.

Today's flow ran the other way on Kalshi, $4,621 on Mazzei to $2,094 on Munson. Polymarket's two legs, below, traded $144, all of it on Munson at 7.5%.

Kalshi's cumulative margin ladder (left) traded $412 and has come down sharply: Mazzei, 10+ pts is 51.5%, against 80.5% in September, which puts the median margin near ten points rather than nineteen. Its other quotes are out of order, 28+ pts at 33% above 13+ pts at 28.5%, the sign of a ladder being marked rung by rung rather than traded as a whole.

Polymarket's categorical version (below) did not trade. Its three central buckets are close: Republican 15-20% at 25%, 5-10% at 22.5% and 10-15% at 22.25%, with 20-25% at 10.5%.

The two boards agree on who wins and still do not agree on by how much, and neither has the volume to force the question.

Oklahoma's gubernatorial turnout ladder is fully quoted and did not trade: Above 970K 90.5%, Above 1.09M 75.5%, Above 1.15M 65.5% and Above 1.21M 55.5%. The quotes have moved up since September, when Above 1.15M was 43.5%; the ladder now implies a central estimate above 1.21 million votes.

• The margin. Kalshi's ladder has moved from a nineteen-point median to about ten on almost no volume, and its rungs are out of order. Treat it as unsettled until it trades.
• Munson's 76,159. Three times the favorite's position at 8.65%. It is still the largest commitment in the Oklahoma complex.
• The spread on the upset has closed. 8.65% on Kalshi against 7.5% on Polymarket.
• Whether the volume holds. $6,715 on Kalshi's winner board is small, and it is more than sixty times what the board traded a month ago.
• Turnout. The ladder's midpoint has moved above 1.21 million, from about 1.12 million in September, without a trade.

The general election is November 3.