Oklahoma Governor 2026

The Republican runoff has settled and the general election books have taken over—but they do not agree with each other.

On the headline question the gap is modest: Kalshi prices Cyndi Munson at 9.8% and the Republican party at 91.45% (sum 101.3%); Polymarket prices the Democrat at 6.5% and the Republican at 93.5% (sum exactly 100%). Kalshi is 1.5 times richer on the upset.

On the margin the gap is large. Kalshi's cumulative board has Republicans 19+ pts at 49%, so the market's median Republican margin is right around nineteen points. Polymarket's categorical board, added up, puts only 34% on a margin of 20 points or more—fifteen points of daylight between two boards describing the same November result.

And essentially none of this is being traded. The entire Oklahoma governor complex—five events across both exchanges—turned $285 in the last 24 hours. Kalshi's margin board and its turnout board each did . The one Kalshi contract that saw any flow at all was Munson, which took all $101 of it.

What money there is sits, as usual, on the long shot: Munson carries $57,401 of open interest at 9.8%; the Republican side carries $12,529 at 91.45%. The Democrat holds 4.6 times the favourite's position, which is precisely the ratio this catalog found on the Massachusetts governor board this morning.

Kalshi (left): Republican party 91.45%, Cyndi Munson 9.8%, sum 101.3%. Polymarket (right): Republican 93.5%, Democrat 6.5%, sum 100.0%.

Both are thin—$101 and $82 respectively—but they have been quoted continuously and the 3.3-point spread on the Democrat has been stable rather than drifting.

Cyndi Munson at 9.8% holds $57,401 of open interest. The Republican party at 91.45% holds $12,529. On a two-outcome board with a 91-point favourite, the underdog carries four and a half times the position.

Polymarket's two legs, below, show the same asymmetry in flow: the Republican side took all $82 of the day there, while on Kalshi the Democrat took all $101. The two venues' participants are trading opposite sides of the same near-certainty.

Kalshi's cumulative margin ladder (left) is monotone and complete: Republicans 10+ pts 80.5%, 13+ 73.5%, 16+ 61.5%, 19+ 49%, 22+ 40%, 25+ 34.5%. Median margin: about nineteen points. It has traded in 24 hours.

Polymarket's categorical version (below) spreads the same question across nine buckets summing to 99.2%: Republican 5-10% 16.5%, 10-15% 16.25%, 15-20% 17.5%, 20-25% 12.5%, 25-30% 11%, 30-35% 5%, 35%+ 5.5%, Democrat Wins 8%. Add the top four and Polymarket puts 34% on a 20-point-plus margin; Kalshi puts 49% on 19-plus.

The two boards agree closely on who wins and disagree sharply on by how much. With no volume on either, there is nothing forcing them together.

Oklahoma's gubernatorial turnout ladder is fully quoted and completely untraded: Above 970K 87.5%, Above 1.09M 58.5%, Above 1.15M 43.5%, Above 1.27M 25.5%—implying a central estimate near 1.12 million votes, and of volume in a day against $319 of open interest across the whole board.

The Republican runoff margin books that used to sit here have settled and been dropped.

• The fifteen-point margin gap. Kalshi 49% on 19+, Polymarket 34% on 20+. Two months out, on boards with no volume, nothing will close it except someone deciding to trade one against the other.
• Munson's $57,401. Four and a half times the favourite's position at 9.8%. It is the only real commitment in the Oklahoma complex and it is on the Democrat.
• The Kalshi-versus-Polymarket spread on the upset. 9.8% against 6.5%. Kalshi has been the richer venue on long shots in every state race this catalog tracks; Massachusetts showed the same 1.5-to-1.8x pattern this morning.
• Whether anything trades at all. $285 across five events in a day. Oklahoma is the quietest statewide race in this catalog, and the margin and turnout boards are quoted purely by market makers.
• Turnout near 1.12 million. Oklahoma's 2022 gubernatorial turnout was roughly 1.1 million. The ladder is pricing a flat midterm, which is itself a claim worth watching as the national environment moves.

Prices captured September 3, 2026, around 13:50 UTC. The general election is November 3.