Ohio Governor 2026

Mike DeWine is term-limited, and the race to replace him is set: Republican Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director.

In mid-September this was the closest governor's race on the board, with Kalshi and Polymarket naming different favorites inside two points of even. It is not close now. Kalshi prices Acton at 66.5% against Ramaswamy's 33.5%; Polymarket has Acton at 67.5% and Ramaswamy at 32.5%. Both books moved about seventeen points toward the Democrat in three weeks, and the disagreement between them is down to a point.

Kalshi carries the money: $29,861 today on $1.38M of open interest, against Polymarket's $3,282. This workspace pulls the winner markets from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold side by side, spotlights both party contracts on both venues, and tracks the trajectory into the November 3 election.

Kalshi runs candidate-level contracts (Ramaswamy, Acton); Polymarket and Manifold price the race by party. The two pies now point the same way—Acton by 33 points on Kalshi and by 35 on Polymarket.

The direct Republican contracts on each exchange. Kalshi has Ramaswamy at 33.5% on $12,879 of 24-hour volume, with 736,410 of open interest—still the larger standing position on that venue—while Polymarket's Republican line sits at 32.5% on $970.

Kalshi's daily history shows the move: from even in mid-September to two-to-one for Acton now. Manifold's community market isolates the Ramaswamy question as a third, play-money read, and agrees at 34%.

• The move, not the spread. Three weeks ago the books disagreed about the favorite; now both have Acton at about two in three. Watch whether it holds through October or gives some back.
• Position against price on Kalshi. Ramaswamy's leg at 33.5% holds 736,410 of open interest against 640,037 on Acton's. The standing money was placed when this was a coin flip, and it has not closed.
• Three venues within a point and a half. Ramaswamy is 33.5% on Kalshi, 32.5% on Polymarket and 34% on Manifold.
• Election day is November 3, 2026; Kalshi settlement follows certification on January 14, 2027, which is why the Kalshi and Polymarket settlement dates differ by more than two months.
• The fundamentals cut against the price. Ohio has trended Republican in recent statewide cycles, which makes a 66.5% Democratic favorite the most notable number on this page.

The same race from the Democratic side. Polymarket has Acton at 67.5% on $2,312; Kalshi has her at 66.5% on $16,532, the busier leg on that book today, with 640,037 of open interest. The favorite now takes the larger share of the flow on both venues, while the larger standing position on Kalshi is still on Ramaswamy.