North Carolina Senate 2026

Roy Cooper prices 96.8% against Republican Michael Whatley at 3.2% on Kalshi; Polymarket says 96.25 / 3.7 and Manifold 97 / 3. Nobody disagrees about the outcome, and Kalshi has firmed another point and a half for Cooper in three days.

The underdog buying has returned, and again it has not moved the price. Kalshi's North Carolina book turned $34,198 today, $30,767 of it on Whatley at about 3 cents; three days ago the book had gone quiet at $1,735. It is the second such burst this month, after a $25,395 day at 6 cents at the start of October. Whatley's price has fallen through both. Polymarket's $245 day went mostly to Cooper.

The majority math keeps moving the same way. Senate control is now 64.5% Democratic on Kalshi, up from 62.5%, so North Carolina sits inside the base case rather than against it.

The order books further down are still the most useful thing on this page: they show how much of a book's resting depth can sit at a penny on either tail while the traded price barely moves.

Cooper at 96.8% and Whatley at 3.2% on Kalshi. Polymarket has the same pair at 96.25 / 3.7 on $245 of volume. Kalshi's flow went to Whatley, $30,767 of $34,198; Polymarket's went to Cooper.

Manifold agrees with Kalshi: Democrats 97% against Kalshi's 96.8%, where it sat three points cheaper in September. It has almost no volume, so read it as an independent prior rather than a trade.

Next to it, the number that moved most over the past month: Senate control is 64.5% Democratic, on $414,381 today, from 53% Republican in mid-September. $306,466 of that day traded on the Republican leg at 37.5%. North Carolina was priced as a safe hold then and is priced as one now; what changed is that the market expects the rest of the map to go with it.

• The Whatley leg. $30,767 at about 3 cents on Kalshi today, after $25,150 at 6 cents at the start of October. The price has halved between the two bursts.
• Cooper's floor. The margin ladder puts Cooper, 5+ pts at 81.5%, 7+ at 69.5% and 9+ at 55.5%, each three to five points higher than three days ago. The midpoint is a win of nine to ten points.
• Georgia against North Carolina. Georgia is 52.5% to post the larger margin, down from 56%.
• The closest-race board. Iowa leads at 18%, with Texas down to 12.5%; North Carolina is outside the top five.
• The order books. Whether the resting depth has moved in from the penny levels.
• Senate control at 64.5% Democratic. This race no longer needs to be explained against a Republican chamber.

The two order books below are the reason this page exists.

When this page measured them in mid-September, 82% of the resting depth on Cooper's Yes side and 96% of Whatley's sat outside two-to-ninety-eight cents, with the single largest levels bid at about a penny. The books carried over a million dollars of open interest and moved $1,636 a day.

Open interest and order-book depth are the two numbers most often cited as evidence that a prediction market is liquid. Check where the levels below sit before reading either as liquidity: resting penny bids on an outcome the book prices at nothing are not depth anyone can trade against.

Two books that price North Carolina against the rest of the map instead of against itself.

Closest Senate race in 2026 ranks the whole board. Iowa leads at 18%, ahead of Texas at 12.5%, then Maine and Kansas at 10.5% each and Ohio at 8.45%, on $50,318. North Carolina is not among the top five.

Larger margin of victory: Georgia or North Carolina has moved closer to even: Georgia 52.5%, North Carolina 45.5%, from 56 / 43, with nothing traded today. It settles November 3 rather than in January, making it the near-dated way to trade the relationship.