Nobel Peace Prize 2026

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the Peace Prize in Oslo on Friday, October 9, and Kalshi's book settles that day. With two days to run, the two exchanges agree on the favorite and now on the order behind it.

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead both books: 15.65% on Polymarket, 15.5% on Kalshi. The next four names are the same on both venues: Mykola Kuleba of Save Ukraine at 8.5% and 9.5%, Save the Children at 7.65% and 8.5%, the International Court of Justice at 5.3% and 4.5%, and Yulia Navalnaya at 4.55% and 4.5%. Five days ago the two shortlists differed below the leader; Doctors Without Borders, then second on Kalshi at 9.5%, has dropped out of its top five.

No one is priced above one chance in six. This is an open field on both venues.

Donald Trump is 0.75% on Polymarket and still most of the book. His leg took $229,474 of Polymarket's $367,713 in 24 hours: 62% of all trading sits on a contract priced at under one chance in a hundred.

Kalshi's book turned $462,674 in 24 hours and Polymarket's $367,713: Kalshi is now the busier of the two, less than a month after this page called it dormant at $31 a day. It holds $2.31M of open interest against Polymarket's $2.75M.

The two pies agree on the leader and on the four names behind it, each within a point and a half. Mykola Kuleba is the mover: outside Polymarket's top five five days ago, he is now second on both books and took $15,888 on Kalshi and $12,181 on Polymarket.

Trump at 0.75% on Polymarket carries 62% of that book's flow, $229,474. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 15.5% on Kalshi is the favorite there and took $7,887.

Below them, Yulia Navalnaya on both books: 4.55% on Polymarket against 4.5% on Kalshi. She led Polymarket at 9% in mid-September; the two exchanges still agree on her, at half the price, and her Polymarket leg took $45,717, the most of the leaders shown.

Two adjacent Nobel books listed on Kalshi. Literature settles October 9 on $2,314 a day; its traded names are Can Xue at 18.5%, on $1,529, and Anne Carson at 14.5%, while two legs marked above 50% rest on a few dollars of open interest and are quotes rather than prices. Economics settles October 13 on $2,935, with Susan Athey and Ariel Pakes level at 19%; Athey was 39.5% a week ago. Both are thin enough to be curiosities, but they extend the workspace from one announcement to Nobel week.

• October 9, Oslo. Both books settle within minutes of the committee chair naming the laureate. There is no partial-information phase.
• Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead both books, 15.65% and 15.5%. They are the mutual-aid networks operating through Sudan's civil war. A favorite at one chance in six is still an open field.
• Trump is a volume contract, not a price contract. 62% of Polymarket's flow on a 0.75% leg, down from 3.2% in mid-September.
• Kalshi is now the busier book. $462,674 against Polymarket's $367,713, with open interest up from $916,894 to $2.31M in five days.
• The shortlists have merged. The same five names lead both venues in the same order; Mykola Kuleba is second on both.
• Speculation peaks in the final days. The Polymarket history chart above is where a late run-up shows first.