NFL Champion 2027 and the Season Books

Kalshi's championship book turned $1,329,442 in a day and holds $131,012,114 of open interest. The Los Angeles Rams still lead, at 11.5% from 16%, with Buffalo at 10.5% and Kansas City and San Francisco level at 9.5%. The busiest of the top five is Kansas City, on $79,110.

The conference books have changed places. The NFC book turned $135,609, from $42,606, and $70,591 of it—52%—traded on Chicago at 9.5%, fourth by price. The AFC book turned $71,982, from $151,042, with Buffalo the favorite at 19.5%.

Houston is no longer the story. The team that took 47% of the AFC book's flow when this page was last reviewed is 1.5% to win the championship, from 5%, though it still holds $3,832,735 of open interest there.

The Week 1 starting-quarterback book that led this page has settled and is no longer on it.

The championship field on both real-money books. Kalshi turned $1,329,442 across all thirty-two teams; Polymarket's mirror turned $28,758, from $298,964—about 46 to 1, from 2.6 to 1 last month.

Prices agree closely: the Rams at 11.5% on Kalshi and 12.5% on Polymarket, Buffalo at 10.5% and 11.5%, Kansas City at 9.5% and 9.85%, San Francisco at 9.5% and 9.75%.

The money on Polymarket is thin everywhere. Among its top five, Baltimore at 7.85% is the busiest on $2,024, ahead of the Rams on $1,018. On Kalshi, Kansas City's $79,110 and San Francisco's $59,826 both outtrade the Rams' $37,085.

The two championship markets below, on the exchange that carries the depth. Los Angeles at 11.5%, down from 16%, is still the market's team, on $37,085 today and $6,512,460 of open interest.

Houston has fallen to 1.5%, from 5%. It turned $20,820 today and still holds $3,832,735 of open interest. The divergence this panel was built around, heavy flow on a cheap Houston, has closed: the price fell rather than rose.

The conference paths on Kalshi, where they actually trade.

The AFC is led by Buffalo at 19.5%, with Kansas City 17.5%, Baltimore 15.5%, Jacksonville 12.5% and Cincinnati 7.5%; the book holds $8,963,573 of open interest and turned $71,982. Jacksonville was its busiest leg on $15,227, ahead of Kansas City's $13,114.

The NFC has the Rams at 19.5%, San Francisco 17.5%, Seattle 14.5%, Chicago 9.5% and Minnesota 8.5%, on $135,609 and $8,213,792 of open interest. The shape has flipped: the NFC book now turns 1.9x the AFC's, from the AFC at 3.5x last month, and Chicago alone accounts for more than half of it.

Below: the championship-game matchup board, $154,382 in a day and $7,425,114 of open interest. Its top four pairings are level at 3.5%—Buffalo vs Los Angeles R, Buffalo vs San Francisco, Kansas City vs Los Angeles R and Kansas City vs San Francisco—with Baltimore vs Los Angeles R at 3%.

The priced favorites are not where the money is. Those five pairings took $9,691 between them, about 6% of the day, with Buffalo vs San Francisco the busiest at $3,947. The rest of the flow is spread across the long tail of the board.

Below: the season awards. The MVP book turned $413,936, with Brock Purdy at 21.5% and Josh Allen at 17.5%, but its busiest leg among the leaders was Trevor Lawrence at 7.5% on $57,016. Jeremiyah Love leads Offensive Rookie of the Year at 32%, and Ben Johnson leads Coach of the Year at 16.5%, each book turning about $50,000.

• The Rams at 11.5%, from 16%. Still the leader on both exchanges, but by a single point over Buffalo on Kalshi, with Kansas City and San Francisco level at 9.5%.
• Chicago is 52% of the NFC book. $70,591 of $135,609 on the fourth-priced team at 9.5%. Houston showed the same pattern in the AFC last month; its championship price has since fallen to 1.5%.
• $3,832,735 still stands on Houston. Watch whether that open interest unwinds at a 1.5% price.
• Polymarket has gone quiet. $28,758 against Kalshi's $1,329,442, about 46 to 1, from 2.6 to 1. The prices still track within about a point on every leading team.
• The MVP money is off the leaders. Trevor Lawrence at 7.5% took $57,016 and Dak Prescott at 7.5% took $37,938, against $16,390 on Purdy at 21.5%.
• The matchup board's favorites take 6% of its flow. Five pairings at 3% to 3.5% took $9,691 of $154,382.