NFL Champion 2027 and the Season Books

Kalshi's championship book turned $2,351,675 in a day, from $1,512,746. San Francisco still leads, at 13.5% from 15.5%, but only a point ahead of Buffalo and Chicago at 12.5%. Chicago has nearly doubled from 6.5%, Jacksonville has climbed to 9.5% from 6.5%, and Kansas City has slipped to 7.5% from 10.5%. The money followed the risers: Jacksonville took $255,669 and Chicago $196,694.

Each conference book has a 23.5% favorite: Buffalo in the AFC and San Francisco in the NFC. Houston is unchanged at 1.5%. Polymarket's mirror has cooled to $147,464 in a day, from $430,105.

The championship field on both real-money books. Kalshi turned $2,351,675 across all thirty-two teams; Polymarket's mirror turned $147,464, from $430,105: about 16 to 1, from 3.5 to 1 at the last review.

Prices agree on the order of the top five: San Francisco at 13.5% on Kalshi and 14.15% on Polymarket, Buffalo at 12.5% and 13.5%, Chicago 12.5% and 12.05%, Jacksonville 9.5% and 10.45%, and Kansas City 7.5% and 8.85%. On Kalshi, Jacksonville's $255,669 was the busiest leg; on Polymarket, Kansas City's $17,434.

The two championship markets below, on the exchange that carries the depth. San Francisco still leads at 13.5%, down from 15.5%, on $94,919 in a day; Buffalo and Chicago are a point behind.

Houston is still 1.5%. It turned $19,159 in a day, about half the $39,371 at the last review.

The conference paths on Kalshi. The AFC is led by Buffalo at 23.5%, unchanged, with Jacksonville up to 17.5% from 12.5%, Kansas City 14.5%, Cincinnati 11.5% and Denver 9.5%. It turned $447,294, from $61,600.

The NFC has San Francisco at 23.5%, from 24.5%, with Chicago up to 17.5% from 12.5%, the Rams 11.5%, and Detroit and Seattle at 9.5%. It turned $184,844, so the AFC now carries about 2.4 times the NFC's flow.

Below: the championship-game matchup board, $220,171 in a day and $12,685,974 of open interest. Buffalo vs San Francisco leads alone at 9.5%, from 6.5%, followed by Jacksonville vs Chicago at 6%, Buffalo vs Chicago and Jacksonville vs San Francisco at 4.5% and Kansas City vs San Francisco at 3.5%, down from 6.5%. San Francisco is now in three of the top five.

More of the money is on the top pairings. Those five took $92,835, about 42% of the day, from 15%, with Jacksonville vs Chicago the busiest at $46,257.

Below: the season awards. The MVP book turned $264,496, with Josh Allen leading at 27.5%, from 31.5%, ahead of Joe Burrow at 17.5%. Trevor Lawrence has climbed to 10.5%, from 5.5%, on $86,310, the busiest leg. Carnell Tate leads Offensive Rookie of the Year at 20.5%.

• San Francisco at 13.5%. Still the leader on both exchanges, but only a point clear of Buffalo and Chicago on Kalshi.
• Chicago and Jacksonville rising. 12.5% and 9.5%, from 6.5% each, and second in their conferences at 17.5%; together they took $452,363 of Kalshi's championship flow.
• The AFC book woke up. $447,294 in a day, from $61,600.
• Polymarket has cooled. $147,464 against Kalshi's $2,351,675, about 16 to 1, from 3.5 to 1.
• The MVP money is on Lawrence. $86,310 on Trevor Lawrence at 10.5%, against $14,543 on Allen at 27.5%.