Next Prime Minister of Israel

Israel voted on October 27, and the final count left neither bloc at 61 seats: 53 for Netanyahu's, 48 for Eizenkot's and 19 for the Arab-led parties. On November 7, President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eizenkot with forming the next government, after he drew 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46. He has 28 days to assemble 61 votes, with a possible 14-day extension, and has ruled out a government with the Arab-led parties.

The books have flipped to Eizenkot. Polymarket prices Eizenkot at 67.6% as the next prime minister, against Benjamin Netanyahu at 19.2%; at the last review Netanyahu led, 43.5% to 32.6%. Avigdor Lieberman is 7%, Naftali Bennett 2.65%.

Kalshi agrees on the order. Eizenkot is 59.5%, No one 30.5% and Netanyahu 9.5%; a week earlier No one led at 52.5%.

The volume came back. Polymarket turned $1,062,639 in twenty-four hours, $468,194 of it on Netanyahu; Kalshi turned $345,638.

The Netanyahu departure ladder prices out by December 31 at 45%, up from 20.5% at the last review.

The premiership field on each venue, Polymarket first. Eizenkot leads Polymarket's board at 67.6%, ahead of Netanyahu at 19.2%, Lieberman at 7% and Bennett at 2.65%. Kalshi's is led by Eizenkot at 59.5%, then No one at 30.5% and Netanyahu at 9.5%, with Lieberman at 3.5% and Bennett at 1%. The two venues agree on the order of the named candidates; Kalshi prices each of them lower and keeps nearly a third of its board on its No one leg.

The candidate Herzog tapped on November 7. 67.6% on Polymarket against 59.5% on Kalshi, up from 32.6% and 18.5% at the last review, and above the 51.55% and 47.5% he held before the vote. His leg took $225,675 on Polymarket and $117,809 on Kalshi, where it carries $828,745 of open interest. He still needs 61 votes, and has ruled out a government with the Arab-led parties.

Netanyahu at 19.2% on Polymarket and 9.5% on Kalshi, down from 43.5% and 19.5% at the last review. His is still the busiest leg on each venue: $468,194 on Polymarket and $127,615 on Kalshi, where he carries $2,301,193 of the book's $4,224,732 open interest. Likud finished as the largest party, but he drew 46 recommendations to Eizenkot's 67, and has called for a national unity government instead.

Left, Yair Lapid at 0.1%, a leg the market prices as out of the race; it took $8,880 in the past day. Right, Netanyahu out by December 31 at 45% on $31,898, up from 20.5% at the last review and nearly all of the departure ladder's trade.

The departure ladder, and the history of the field. The Netanyahu out by Multiple prices December 31 at 45%, the rung nearest even, March 31, 2027 at 65% and June 30, 2027 at 69%. Before the vote the December leg sat near 41.5%; it halved as the count came in and is back at 45% since the mandate went to Eizenkot. Beside it, the history of Polymarket's field shows Eizenkot's lead through the campaign, Netanyahu overtaking him after the polls closed, and Eizenkot retaking it.

• Eizenkot's 28 days. Herzog tasked him on November 7; he needs 61 votes, with a possible 14-day extension. These books settle on who becomes prime minister, not on who holds the mandate.
• Eizenkot at 67.6% on Polymarket. About 48 points ahead of Netanyahu at 19.2%, a reversal from an eleven-point Netanyahu lead at the last review.
• Kalshi's No one leg at 30.5%. Eizenkot 59.5%, Netanyahu 9.5%.
• The volume is back. $1,062,639 on Polymarket and $345,638 on Kalshi in the past day.
• Out by December 31 at 45%. March 31, 2027 is 65%.