Next Prime Minister of Israel

Two exchanges list the next Israeli premiership, and both have edged further toward Benjamin Netanyahu. Gadi Eizenkot is 43.7% on Polymarket and 44.5% on Kalshi, down from 46.4% and 47.5% five days ago. Netanyahu is 35.5% on Polymarket and 34.5% on Kalshi. Naftali Bennett has slipped from 13.5% to 8.5% and 7.5%. The favorite's lead on Polymarket is about eight points, with the election scheduled for October 27.

Polymarket is still where the trading happens. It turned $290,705 in twenty-four hours and Kalshi $23,685, about 12 to 1, down from 23 to 1.

The flow is still on Netanyahu. His leg took $91,297 on Polymarket, 31% of the day, and $19,150 of Kalshi's $23,685. Eizenkot took $24,035 and $2,540. Yair Lapid's 0.1% leg took $26,742 and Avigdor Lieberman's 2.1% leg $21,433.

The Netanyahu departure ladder prices out by December 31 at 37.5%, down from 42%, on $3,207.

The premiership field on each venue, Polymarket first. The same three names lead both in the same order, within a point of each other on Eizenkot and on Netanyahu.

The favorite on each venue. 43.7% on Polymarket against 44.5% on Kalshi, down from 46.4% and 47.5% five days ago and from 56% and 59% in mid-September. The two venues are less than a point apart on the favorite.

Netanyahu at 35.5% on Polymarket and 34.5% on Kalshi, up about a point on each since the last reading, and from 28% on both in mid-September. His is the busiest leg on each venue: $91,297 on Polymarket and $19,150 on Kalshi, 81% of its day.

Left, Yair Lapid at 0.1%, which took $26,742 today, up from $5,551 five days ago, on a leg the market prices as out of the race. Right, Netanyahu out by December 31 at 37.5% on $3,207, the one live leg of the departure ladder.

The departure ladder, and the history of the field. The Netanyahu out by Multiple prices December 31 at 37.5%, down from 42%, as his odds of staying on after the election have risen. Treat the December leg as the only live number in it. Beside it, the history of Polymarket's field shows the favorite's lead closing.

• The gap keeps closing. Eizenkot's lead over Netanyahu on Polymarket has gone from twenty-eight points in mid-September to about eight. Bennett has slipped to 8.5%.
• Netanyahu is the traded leg. $91,297 on Polymarket and 81% of Kalshi's day.
• Trade the Polymarket book; sanity-check against Kalshi. At about 12 to 1 the venues are converging in volume, and they are within a point on both leaders.
• Out by December 31 at 37.5%. It moves inversely to his premiership leg.
• Cheap legs still draw money. Lapid's 0.1% leg took $26,742 and Lieberman's 2.1% leg $21,433.
• October 27. The scheduled election date; coalition talks follow, and these books settle on who becomes prime minister.