New Zealand Election 2026

New Zealand voted on Saturday, November 7, and the preliminary count leaves the governing National, ACT and NZ First bloc with a narrow majority of seats. National and Labour finished close to level on the party vote, near 29% each. Christopher Luxon said he has a pathway to form the next government, with negotiations to come; Chris Hipkins has not conceded. About 700,000 special votes remain, and the Electoral Commission aims to publish official results by November 27.

The markets have moved toward Luxon. Polymarket prices him at 81.5% and Hipkins at 16% to be the next prime minister, on $25,556 in the past day; Kalshi has them at 81% and 14%, and Manifold at 80.02% and 19%.

The coalition board agrees. The National, ACT and NZ First arrangement is 75% on Polymarket, up from 50%, against 15.2% for Labour and the Greens and 4.1% with Te Pāti Māori added. The books now price the final count and government formation.

The prime minister question on three venues: Kalshi and Polymarket in the first row, Manifold's play-money board beside Polymarket's coalition board below. Polymarket is the busy book, $25,556 in the past day against Kalshi's $3,705; all three put Luxon between 80% and 81.5%.

Left, Polymarket's Christopher Luxon at 81.5%, on $19,754 in the past day against $5,531 on Hipkins: the money has followed the price toward Luxon. Right, Kalshi's Luxon leg at 81%, on $3,226 with $5,303 open. The two money venues agree within half a point, and Manifold is close behind at 80.02%.

The party books. First, which party wins the most seats: National 97.85% and Labour 2.05% on Polymarket, on $93,067 in the past day. Kalshi's board, which runs to December 31, marks National at 68.3% and Labour at 4.3% on $50,753, but its legs sum well short of 100%, so read its National price with care. Beside the sources, Polymarket's turnout board has swung low: under 76% is 83.5%, 76% to 78% 12.5% and 78% to 80% 2.35%. Last, the two who-governs boards price each party separately, so their legs don't sum to 100%: Polymarket has National and ACT at 75.5% and NZ First 74.5%, against Labour 25%; Kalshi's thinner board, $1,158 today and settling March 15, 2027, has National 71.5%, NZ First 54% and ACT 52%.

• Electoral Commission: the 2026 General Election — New Zealand's Electoral Commission: election rules, dates and statistics.
• Official election results — The Electoral Commission's results site, updated on election night and through the official count.
• Vote.nz: enrolling and voting — Where, when and how to vote in the 2026 General Election.

• The official count. About 700,000 special votes remain; the Electoral Commission aims to publish official results by November 27.
• The prime minister books. Luxon 81.5% on Polymarket, 81% on Kalshi.
• The coalition math. National, ACT and NZ First at 75%; Labour and the Greens, with or without Te Pāti Māori, about 19% between them.
• NZ First's position. 74.5% on Polymarket to be in the next government, level with National and ACT.
• Most seats. National 97.85% on Polymarket against 68.3% on Kalshi.
• Settlement. Polymarket's books remain open past their listed November 7 end date; Kalshi's run longer, its party board to December 31 and its government board to March 15, 2027.