New York Governor 2026

New York elects a governor on November 3, ten days out, and the markets still do not expect a contest. Kalshi prices Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul at 95.05% against Republican Bruce Blakeman at 5.65%; Polymarket has them at 95.3% and 4.6%, and Manifold puts a Democratic win at 97.21%.

The trading is on the long shot. Kalshi's board turned $131,462 in a day, $108,921 of it on Blakeman's leg, which now holds 2,709,187 of the board's 3,559,525 open interest, up from 1,166,685 on October 6. Polymarket's board turned $978.

The live questions are about the margin. Kalshi's ladder puts Hochul, 16+ pts at 43%, the rung nearest even, and Polymarket's margin board has its largest weight on a Democratic win by 15 to 20 points, with 10 to 15 close behind.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Hochul to win is 95.05% on Kalshi and 95.3% on Polymarket, a quarter point apart. Her Kalshi leg took $20,598 today.

Below them, the other side of the Kalshi board: Blakeman at 5.65% took $108,921, more than five times the favorite's flow, and holds more than three times her open interest. Beside it, Manifold's party board, where a Democratic win is 97.21%.

Kalshi's cumulative ladder (left) prices Hochul, 10+ pts at 80.5%, 13+ pts at 62.5% and 16+ pts at 43%, the rung nearest even. All three are softer than three weeks ago, and the ladder's median has slipped to about fifteen points. It turned $1,401, $681 of it on 7+ pts at 84%.

Polymarket's categorical board (right) has moved the same way: Democrat 15-20% is still the top bucket but at 24%, with 10-15% at 23%, 20-25% at 17.5% and 5-10% at 15.5%. It barely traded, $5.

Kalshi lists each candidate's share of the vote as its own ladder. Hochul: at least 56% is 58.5% and at least 58% 35%. Blakeman: at least 40% is 71% and at least 42% 48%. Both ladders are thin, $81 between them today, and they describe a slightly closer race than three weeks ago: about 57% to 42%.

Below them, the one board on this page where Blakeman is favored: Polymarket prices him at 71.5% to carry Nassau County, up from 57.5%, against Hochul at 24%. Beside it, the primary sources for the race.

• New York State Board of Elections — Voter registration, voting information and official election results for New York State.
• New York gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 — Candidates, key dates and past results for the 2026 race, from Ballotpedia.
• 2026 New York gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

• The margin, not the winner. Hochul, 16+ pts at 43% on Kalshi is the live rung; Polymarket's top bucket is a Democratic win by 15 to 20 points, a point over 10 to 15.
• Blakeman's open interest. 2,709,187 on a 5.65% leg, more than double three weeks ago and three times the favorite's. Watch whether it unwinds before November 3 or rides to settlement.
• Polymarket's winner board. $978 today, a quarter point from Kalshi.
• Nassau County. Blakeman 71.5% on Polymarket, the only board on this page that favors him.
• Vote share. Hochul near 57% and Blakeman near 42% on Kalshi's thin ladders.
• Settlement. Polymarket's boards are listed to settle on November 3; Kalshi's winner board on January 1, 2027.