New Hampshire Senate 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

With the primary settled, New Hampshire's general is priced near 84% for Chris Pappas on all three venues that list it. Kalshi has Pappas 84% and John Sununu 17%; Polymarket 84/15; Manifold 85/14. Kalshi's winner board holds $637,129 of open interest, most of it—$423,987—on the Sununu leg.

The margin boards have moved toward the winner board. A day ago Kalshi priced Pappas by six or more at 46%, a coin flip on a race the winner market called safe. Today that leg is 57%, and Polymarket's buckets put 61% on the same outcome.

The primary ladder has settled and leaves the page.

The November race on the two venues that trade it. Kalshi turns $16,446 today on $637,129 of open interest at 84/17. Polymarket turns $10,979 at 84/15. Manifold's Pappas leg sits further down, beside the margin ladder.

Kalshi's Pappas leg is 84% on $213,142 of open interest. Polymarket's Democrat is 84% on $4,811 of daily flow. Same price. On Kalshi, twice as much money stands behind Sununu as behind Pappas.

Kalshi's Pappas by 6+ is 57%, up from 46% yesterday, on $1,213—nearly all of the margin ladder's volume today. Beside it, Manifold's Pappas leg at 85.3%, a third venue within a point and a half of the other two.

Left: Kalshi's cumulative ladder—2+ 78%, 4+ 68%, 6+ 57%, 8+ 35%. Right: Polymarket's buckets, led by Pappas 6–9% at 32%. Polymarket's Pappas buckets above six points sum to 61%, four points from Kalshi's 57%.

The closest-Senate-race board holds $388,757 of open interest. Texas 16%, Iowa 12%, Ohio 11%, Michigan 8.4%, Maine 7.5%—and New Hampshire 5.4%, which drew the board's heaviest flow today at $908.

The general settles after November 3, and the margin boards settle with it.

  • The six-point leg at 57%, up eleven points in a day on $1,213.
  • Whether Kalshi and Polymarket keep converging on the margin: 57% against 61% on the same outcome.
  • Sununu 0–3% at 13% on Polymarket, the closest thing to an upset case anyone is quoting.
  • $423,987 of open interest on Sununu at 17%. That position drains rather than moves.
  • The closest-race board as the exit ramp: Texas at 16% and Iowa at 12%.