New Hampshire Senate 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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New Hampshire's general is priced near 89% for Chris Pappas on all three venues that list it, up five points since late September. Kalshi has Pappas 89% and John Sununu 10.5%; Polymarket 89.5/11; Manifold 89%. Kalshi's winner board holds $1,092,605 of open interest, most of it, $847,686, on the Sununu leg.

The margin boards have moved with it. Kalshi now prices Pappas by six or more at 63%, up from 57%, and by eight or more at 46%, a coin flip on a blowout.

The November race on the two venues that trade it. Kalshi turns $9,403 today on $1,092,605 of open interest at 89/10.5. Polymarket turns $1,085 at 89.5/11. Manifold's Pappas leg sits further down, beside the margin ladder.

Kalshi's Pappas leg is 89% on $244,919 of open interest. Polymarket's Democrat is 89.5% on $720 of daily flow. Half a point apart. On Kalshi, more than three times as much money stands behind Sununu as behind Pappas, and Sununu's leg took $8,899 of today's $9,403.

Kalshi's Pappas by 6+ is 63%, up from 57%, on a quiet day for the margin ladder, $170 in all. Beside it, Manifold's Pappas leg at 89.1%, a third venue within half a point of the other two.

Left: Kalshi's cumulative ladder: 2+ 83.5%, 4+ 72.5%, 6+ 63%, 8+ 46%, 10+ 30.5%. Right: Polymarket's buckets, now led by Pappas 3–6% at 24.5% and 6–9% at 24%, with 9–12% at 20.5%. The upset case, Sununu 0–3%, is 9%.

The closest-Senate-race board holds $531,358 of open interest and turned $14,664. Iowa 18.5%, Texas 12.5%, Kansas 10.5%, Maine 10.45%, Ohio 8.05%. New Hampshire is no longer among the five races the board rates likeliest to be closest.

The general settles after November 3, and the margin boards settle with it.

  • Pappas at 89% to 89.5% on all three venues, up five points in three weeks.
  • The six-point leg at 63% and the eight-point leg at 46%.
  • Sununu 0–3% at 9% on Polymarket, the closest thing to an upset case anyone is quoting.
  • $847,686 of open interest on Sununu at 10.5%. That position drains rather than moves.
  • The closest-race board as the exit ramp: Iowa at 18.5% and Texas at 12.5%.