Nevada Governor 2026

Nevada's governor's race is the rare book where the two exchanges disagree on the favorite. Kalshi prices Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo at 51.5% and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford at 48.5%. Polymarket prices Ford at 52% and Lombardo at 47%. Three and a half to four and a half points separate them on the same question.

The flow favors Ford on both. Polymarket's board turned $60,075 in a day, $43,192 of it on Ford; Kalshi's turned $30,153, $19,446 on Ford. The standing positions lean the other way on Kalshi, where Lombardo's leg holds 175,678 contracts of open interest to Ford's 125,013.

The margin books say close either way. Kalshi's ladder prices Lombardo by 2 points or more at 37% and by 5 or more at 23.5%; Polymarket's margin board has its two largest buckets on a win by under 3 points, for Ford and for Lombardo.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, Lombardo: 51.5% on Kalshi against 47% on Polymarket. Bottom row, Ford: 48.5% on Kalshi against 52% on Polymarket. Each exchange's book sums to about 100%, so this is a real disagreement about the favorite rather than an overround. The two boards also settle two months apart, Polymarket's on November 4 and Kalshi's on January 2.

Kalshi's ladder asks how much Lombardo wins by: 2 points or more 37%, 5 or more 23.5%, 8 or more 13.5%, 11 or more 5.55%. Set against his 51.5% to win, more than a quarter of his winning scenarios are inside two points. It turned $128; read it as a quote.

Polymarket's board splits both candidates into buckets. The two largest are the narrowest, Ford by 0–3 and Lombardo by 0–3, each quoted between about 19% and 24%. The board has barely traded, $138, so read every bucket as a quote.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books: turnout, each candidate's vote share, county boards and the state's other races.

• Nevada Secretary of State: Elections — The official election calendar, voter registration and candidate information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Silver State Election: official Nevada results — The Secretary of State's results site, updated on election night and as counties certify.
• Ballotpedia: Nevada gubernatorial election, 2026 — The candidates, primary results and past results for the race.

The Democratic trifecta. Kalshi's board on which states Democrats win a trifecta prices Nevada at 43%, five and a half points under Ford's own 48.5%. The Republican trifecta board has Nevada at 3.5%: the market treats the legislature as the Democrats' to hold whoever wins the governorship.

House seats. Kalshi's Range on how many of Nevada's four House seats Democrats win prices 3 at 68.5% and 4 at 22.5%, on $6,906, with $5,095 of that on 2 at 5.5%.

• Which exchange moves. Kalshi has Lombardo by three points, Polymarket has Ford by five. One of them is wrong about the favorite.
• Ford's flow. $43,192 on Polymarket and $19,446 on Kalshi in a day, the busier leg on both.
• The 0–3 buckets. Polymarket's two largest margin buckets are a win by under three points, one for each candidate.
• The trifecta at 43%. It moves with Ford's leg.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles November 4; Kalshi's runs to January 2.