Nevada Governor 2026

A week ago Nevada's governor's race was the rare book where the two exchanges disagreed on the favorite. They now agree. Kalshi prices Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford at 51.5% and Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo at 48.5%, the reverse of last week's 48.5 / 51.5. Polymarket prices Ford at 53.5% and Lombardo at 45.5%. Two to three points separate them on the same question.

Neither book is busy. Polymarket's board turned $954 in a day, all of it on Ford; Kalshi's turned $221, $197 on Lombardo. A week ago the two turned $60,075 and $30,153, most of it on Ford: the flow came first and Kalshi's price followed.

The margin books say close either way. Kalshi's ladder prices Lombardo by 2 points or more at 35% and by 5 or more at 18%; Polymarket's margin board has its two largest buckets on a win by under 3 points, for Ford and for Lombardo.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row, Lombardo: 48.5% on Kalshi against 45.5% on Polymarket. Bottom row, Ford: 51.5% on Kalshi against 53.5% on Polymarket. Kalshi's book sums to 100% and Polymarket's to 99%, so the two-to-three-point gap is a real difference in how far each leans to Ford rather than an overround. The two boards also settle two months apart, Polymarket's on November 4 and Kalshi's on January 2.

Kalshi's ladder asks how much Lombardo wins by: 2 points or more 35%, 5 or more 18%, 8 or more 13.5%, 11 or more 3.55%. Set against his 48.5% to win, more than a quarter of his winning scenarios are inside two points. It turned $11; read it as a quote.

Polymarket's board splits both candidates into buckets. The two largest are the narrowest, Ford by 0–3 at 20.5% and Lombardo by 0–3 at 19.5%. The board turned $2,198, $1,219 of it on the narrow Lombardo win, against $923 of open interest: still thin.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books: turnout, each candidate's vote share, county boards and the state's other races.

• Nevada Secretary of State: Elections — The official election calendar, voter registration and candidate information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Silver State Election: official Nevada results — The Secretary of State's results site, updated on election night and as counties certify.
• Ballotpedia: Nevada gubernatorial election, 2026 — The candidates, primary results and past results for the race.

The Democratic trifecta. Kalshi's board on which states Democrats win a trifecta is led by Minnesota at 83% and Michigan at 76%; Nevada sits well down it, because a trifecta there needs Ford to win as well as both chambers to hold. The board turned $319.

House seats. Kalshi's Range on how many of Nevada's four House seats Democrats win prices 3 at 69% and 4 at 25%, on $16.

• Whether the agreement holds. Kalshi has Ford by three points and Polymarket by eight, a week after Kalshi had Lombardo ahead.
• Thin books. $221 on Kalshi and $954 on Polymarket in a day; a single large order can move either.
• The 0–3 buckets. Polymarket's two largest margin buckets are a win by under three points, one for each candidate.
• The trifecta board. Nevada's rung moves with Ford's leg.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles November 4; Kalshi's runs to January 2.