Nebraska Senate 2026 — Ricketts, Osborn and a three-way board

Nebraska is the highest-volume single Senate race on either exchange and it is a three-way. Kalshi's board turns $274,105 a day—more than any other individual Senate contest—on a field of Pete Ricketts at 70%, the independent Dan Osborn at 32%, and the Democrat Cindy Burbank at 0.5%.

Those first two numbers sum to 102%, and that is the whole story. Almost nothing is priced outside the Ricketts–Osborn pair, which makes this a two-candidate race with a Democrat on the ballot rather than a conventional partisan contest. Osborn's leg holds $332,028 of open interest against Ricketts's $561,778—a challenger carrying nearly six tenths of the favourite's paper.

Polymarket and Manifold both list it, thinly. Polymarket turns $2,408 and Manifold $1,277, against Kalshi's quarter of a million. The cross-exchange spread on a race this lopsided in volume is worth watching for exactly that reason: one venue is doing all the price discovery.

Kalshi's board on the left and Polymarket's on the right, with Manifold's party-level version below. Kalshi settles on certification in January 2027; the other two settle on election night, November 3.

Ricketts at 70% and Osborn at 32%. The Democrat is on the ballot at half a cent, so the spread between these two legs is the race. Watch the open interest as much as the price—Osborn's leg holds $332,028 against Ricketts's $561,778.

Nebraska's place in the national map. Kalshi's Closest Senate race in 2026 board and Polymarket's within 5% multiple both price whether this is the seat that ends up deciding the chamber, and Manifold's Republican-sweep board prices it alongside the rest of the class.

Watch the Ricketts–Osborn spread, not the party label. An independent at 32% against a former governor is the only Senate race in the country where the second-place candidate is not a Democrat. The conventional partisan read does not apply here and the board knows it.

Watch the open interest, which disagrees with the price. Osborn's leg carries nearly six tenths of the paper on a third of the probability. Either the challenger's backers are more committed than the price implies, or a lot of Ricketts holders have already taken their position and stopped trading.

Watch the two settlement dates. Kalshi resolves on certification in January 2027; Polymarket and Manifold resolve on election night. A contested count would pull those two apart, and this page shows both.

Watch the cross-exchange volume gap. Kalshi turns a hundred times Polymarket on the same question. When one venue does all the price discovery, the thin book is the one that moves when it is finally arbitraged.