Nebraska Senate 2026 — Ricketts, Osborn and a three-way board

Nebraska's Senate race is Pete Ricketts against the independent Dan Osborn. Kalshi prices Ricketts at 72.5% and Osborn at 27.5%, with the Democrat Cindy Burbank under 1%. Polymarket now agrees exactly: Ricketts 72.5%, the independent 27.5%.

The Osborn buying has faded. Four days ago Kalshi turned $71,417 and three quarters of it bought Osborn. Today it turned $5,111, with $3,070 on Ricketts and $1,924 on Osborn. Osborn's leg holds 404,352 contracts open to Ricketts's 819,956.

Kalshi does most of the trading: Polymarket turned $730 and Manifold nothing.

Kalshi on the left and Polymarket on the right, with Manifold's party-level board below. Kalshi settles on certification in January 2027; the other two settle on election night, November 3.

Osborn at 27.5% on Kalshi beside Ricketts at 72.5% on Polymarket. The two legs sum to exactly 100% across exchanges, so the Democrat's leg carries no weight.

Kalshi's closest-race board is led by Iowa at 18.5% and Texas at 16.5%, with Nebraska outside its top five. Polymarket's within 5% board leads with Texas at 75.5% and Iowa at 71.5%; Manifold's Republican-sweep board prices the rest of the class. Polymarket's own closest-race board is no longer listed and has come off this page.

The Osborn flow. Three quarters of Kalshi's day bought the Osborn leg at the end of September; today the larger share went to Ricketts, and the price did not move either time.

The cross-exchange spread. Kalshi and Polymarket now agree to the half point on both candidates, on books of very different size.

Two settlement dates. Kalshi resolves on certification in January 2027, Polymarket and Manifold on election night. A contested count would pull them apart.

November 3 is a month out.