Motorsport Championships 2026 — NASCAR and Formula One

Kalshi's NASCAR Cup title board sums to 121.5%. Polymarket's sums to 128.9%. Polymarket's Formula One board sums to 97.1%. Same two exchanges, same sport category, and a thirty-two point spread between the widest and the tightest board on this page.

The NASCAR pair agree on the shape of the season—Hamlin 38.5% on Kalshi and 39.5% on Polymarket, Bell 18.5% against 19.8%, Blaney 14.5% against 15.5%—and Polymarket's is uniformly a point or so higher on every driver, which is exactly what a wider overround looks like. The difference is that Kalshi turned $14,259 today and Polymarket turned $195. A board nobody trades does not get its overround squeezed.

The Formula One boards show what happens when they do. Polymarket's F1 championship has $202,523,835 of lifetime volume and sums to 97.1%—underround, meaning the full field is buyable for less than a dollar. Kalshi's sits at 103.0% on $8.37M lifetime. Both have Antonelli as champion-elect at 84.5% and 85.5%, and the flow is real on both: $28,294 and $38,906 today.

Inside the NASCAR board the money is not where the price is. Tyler Reddick at 8.5% took $1,874—more than Hamlin's $1,214 at 38.5% and more than any other driver. Bell at 18.5% took $1,132. The three favourites combined took less than the field behind them.

The Cup title settles November 15; the lower series boards remain quoted and effectively untraded.

The NASCAR Cup title on both venues. Kalshi: 35 drivers, 121.5% total, $14,259 today, Hamlin 38.5%. Polymarket: 36 drivers, 128.9% total, $195 today, Hamlin 39.5%. Polymarket is a point wide on every leg and seventy times thinner. Settlement is November 15 on Kalshi, November 8 on Polymarket—a week apart on the same championship.

Hamlin at 38.5% against the three drivers nearest him in standing risk. Reddick is 8.5% and took $1,874 today—the largest single flow on the board, ahead of Hamlin's $1,214. Bell is 18.5% on $1,132, Blaney 14.5% on $869. The money is buying the fourth and fifth prices, not the first.

The two lower NASCAR series, both quoted and effectively untraded, against the Formula One championship boards—the same question asked in a market that actually has depth. Polymarket's F1 board sums to 97.1% on $202.5M of lifetime volume; Kalshi's to 103.0% on $8.37M. Antonelli is 84.5% and 85.5%. Six points of overround separate the best-made motorsport board on either exchange from the worst.

The Cup title settles November 15 on Kalshi and November 8 on Polymarket. A week of divergence on the same championship is worth watching as the playoffs narrow—whichever board settles first stops being tradeable while the other is still live.

The 121.5% and 128.9% overrounds are the story on the NASCAR side. Neither has tightened, and Polymarket's $195 of daily volume says why. Compare with the F1 pair, where real flow has pulled Polymarket's board to 97.1%—below par.

Reddick at 8.5% is where the NASCAR money is going. He has outtraded the 38.5% favourite for several refreshes running. If that persists into the round of eight it is a position, not noise.

Antonelli at 84.5–85.5% is the closest thing to a settled championship on this page, and both exchanges agree within a point. The remaining $77,009 a day is trading the tail.