Motorsport Championships 2026 — NASCAR and Formula One

The NASCAR Cup title boards have a new leader. Kyle Larson is 41.5% on Kalshi and 41.55% on Polymarket. Denny Hamlin, the favourite at 38.5% when this page was last reviewed in mid-September, is 26.5% and 27%. Christopher Bell is 11.5% against 9.2%, Joey Logano 6.5% against 7.1% and Ryan Blaney 5.5% against 6%.

The two exchanges agree on every leading driver to within about two points, and only one of them trades. Kalshi turned $7,018 today, $4,374 of it on Larson; Polymarket turned $14. The flow has followed the price this time: in September the board's busiest leg was Tyler Reddick at 8.5%, and he is now 2% and untraded.

Formula One is close to settled. Kimi Antonelli is 95.5% on Kalshi and 96.6% on Polymarket, up from about 85% in September, with no other driver above 1.5%. Polymarket's board is still the busier, $16,865 against $5,759, and most of it, $10,758, traded on Max Verstappen at 0.7%.

The Cup title settles November 15 on Kalshi; the lower series boards remain quoted and thinly traded.

The NASCAR Cup title on both venues. Kalshi: Larson 41.5%, Hamlin 26.5%, Bell 11.5%, on $7,018 today. Polymarket: Larson 41.55%, Hamlin 27%, Bell 9.2%, on $14. The top five drivers take about 91% of each board. Settlement is November 15 on Kalshi and a week later on Polymarket, on the same championship.

Larson at 41.5% against the three drivers nearest him. Hamlin is 26.5%, down twelve points since mid-September, on $1,004. Bell is 11.5% on $130 and Blaney 5.5% on $705. Larson's leg took $4,374, more than the rest of the board together. The spotlight has moved to Larson and Hamlin from Hamlin and Reddick, who is now 2%.

The two lower NASCAR series against the Formula One championship boards. The O'Reilly Auto Parts Series is still a race, Justin Allgaier 29.5% and Sheldon Creed 26%, on $469; the Truck Series has Kaden Honeycutt at 45% and Layne Riggs at 35%, on $411. Formula One is the opposite case: Antonelli is 95.5% on Kalshi and 96.6% on Polymarket, and the $22,624 the two boards turned today is trading the tail.

The Cup title settles November 15 on Kalshi and a week later on Polymarket. Whichever board settles first stops being tradeable while the other is still live.

Larson at 41.5% on both venues. The change of favourite has happened on both boards at once, and Kalshi's money is on the new leader.

Hamlin at about 27%. Twelve points lower than in mid-September and still the clear second.

Polymarket's Cup board barely trades. $14 today against Kalshi's $7,018; its prices track Kalshi's to within about two points all the same.

Antonelli at 95.5–96.6% is the closest thing to a settled championship on this page. Most of Polymarket's Formula One flow is on Verstappen at 0.7%.