Middle East Escalation Tracker

The US–Iran ceasefire widget now follows Polymarket's "effective ceasefire begins by" board, listed with a two-week pause in its title. It prices November 15 at 46.5%, the leg nearest even, November 22 59.5%, November 30 67.5% and December 31 80.5%, on $210,126 in a day with $187,062 open. Its November 8 leg, now past, still trades at 21.5% and has not settled. Beside it, the Israel–Iran board prices that ceasefire continuing through November 15 at 96.2%.

The blockade board is the busiest Iran book on the page, at $1,064,107 a day. November 15 prices 4.55% and November 30 15.5%, the two legs taking most of the flow, with December 31 at 38.05%. A nuclear deal is still a long-dated bet: Kalshi puts Before Mar 1, 2027 at 17%.

Directly below: Kalshi's weekly Hormuz traffic board for November 9–15, beside Polymarket's contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 8.5%.

Left, the new US–Iran board asks when an effective ceasefire begins: 21.5% for the past, unsettled November 8 leg, 46.5% by November 15, 59.5% by November 22, 67.5% by November 30 and 80.5% by December 31, on $210,126 a day. Right, the Israel–Iran board asks whether that ceasefire continues, stepping down by date: 99.8% through November 7, 98.75% through November 11, 97.1% through November 13 and 96.2% through November 15, the busiest leg at $284,230, then 94% through November 18, on $925,806. The two boards ask different questions, so their prices don't compare directly.

Left: the blockade board, where November 30 is 15.5%, December 15 26%, December 31 38.05% and March 31, 2027 67.5%. Right: Kalshi's nuclear-deal ladder, $2.98M of open interest that climbs from 17% before March 2027 to 25% before July 2027, 32% before October 2027, 40% before 2028 and 47.5% before January 20, 2029. An end to the blockade is priced as more likely than not by the end of March; a deal inside the same window is not.

The weekly board for November 9–15 prices traffic above 15 ships at 93.5%, above 20 73.5%, above 23 57%, above 25 41.5% and above 27 28.5%, on $99,414; it settles November 17. Above 23 is the rung nearest even, leaning slightly toward. The normalization ladder holds $5.33M of open interest and turned $338,371: a return to normal before November 2027 is 47.5%, before December 2027 52%, before 2028 55.5%, before July 2028 66% and before 2029 69.5%. Fees are the other tail: Iran charging for passage by December 31 prices 7.5%, on $1,811.

November 15 is the next date on the US–Iran ceasefire-start board, the Israel–Iran board and the blockade board; November 17 settles the Hormuz weekly for November 9–15.

• A US–Iran ceasefire beginning by November 15 at 46.5%, and by November 30 at 67.5%, on $210,126 in a day.
• The blockade's November 30 gate at 15.5%, on $420,777, the board's busiest leg.
• A senior US–Iran meeting by November 30 at 20.5%, and by December 31 39%.
• Hormuz traffic above 23 ships at 57%, the open rung on the weekly board.

A US invasion before 2027 prices 8.5% and turned $173,667. Kharg Island out of Iranian control by December 31 is 3.45%, on $57,124; leadership change by November 30 is 2.5%, by December 31 7.5% and by June 30, 2027 22.5%, on $108,896. Below, the next senior US–Iran meeting: 20.5% by November 30 and 39% by December 31, on $161,313, most of it on the November leg.