Middle East Escalation Tracker

Polymarket's blockade board is still the busiest Iran book on the page: $441,471 in a day on $2.18M of open interest. September closed without an announcement and the dates have moved out: October 15 prices 12.5% and took $242,983 of the day, October 31 is 23.5%, down from 34%, and December 31 is 50.15%, down from 62.3%.

Both ceasefires are still holding in the prices. US–Iran through October 15 is 87.5%, and Israel–Iran through October 31 is 83.5%. A nuclear deal is still the thing nobody is paying for: Kalshi puts Before Jan 1, 2027 at 13.5%, on $4,558.

Directly below: Kalshi's weekly Hormuz traffic board, now covering October 5–11, beside Polymarket's contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 14.5%.

The US–Iran board prices the next ten days step by step: 98.2% through October 7, 95.5% through October 9, 90.5% through October 12 and 87.5% through October 15, on $172,940 a day; the October 15 leg took $43,754. The Israel–Iran board runs further out: 93.5% through October 15, 83.5% through October 31, 71% through November 15 and 66.5% through November 30, on $99,109. Through October 15 the market still rates the US arrangement the more fragile of the two, 87.5% against 93.5%.

Left: the blockade board, where November 30 is 35% and March 31, 2027 is 72%, down from 78%. Right: Kalshi's nuclear-deal ladder, $4.17M of open interest that climbs from 13.5% before 2027 to 19% before March 2027 and 37.5% before January 20, 2029. An end to the blockade is priced as likely inside six months; a deal inside the same window is not.

The weekly board for October 5–11 prices traffic above 15 ships at 89.5%, above 20 at 73.5% and above 25 at 25%, on $24,168; it settles October 13. The normalization ladder holds $7.49M of open interest and puts a return to normal before April 2027 at 32.5%, before July 2027 at 48.5% and before 2028 at 54%. Fees are the other tail: Iran charging for passage by October 31 prices 6%, and by December 31 17.5%.

October 13 settles this week's Hormuz board. October 15 is the next gate on the blockade board and on both ceasefire boards; October 31 closes the month's legs.

• The blockade's October 15 gate at 12.5%, on $242,983, against October 31 at 23.5%. September's gate expired without an announcement, and the later dates have lost six to twelve points since.
• The US–Iran ceasefire's slope. Eight points between October 9 and October 15, the steepest stretch on either ceasefire board.
• A senior US–Iran meeting by October 31 at 21.5%, down from 46% in late September. Talks were priced then; they are much less so now.

A US invasion before 2027 prices 14.5% and turned $312,468, the second-largest daily flow on the page. Kharg Island out of Iranian control by December 31 is 5.5% on $55,882, and by October 31 1.1%; leadership change by October 31 is 1.35% on $30,546, and by December 31 10.5%. Below, the next senior US–Iran meeting: 21.5% by October 31, 34% by November 30, 46.5% by December 31.