Middle East Escalation Tracker

Polymarket's blockade board is the busiest Iran book on the page: $371,954 in a day on $2.1M of open interest. September 30 prices 11% and took $167,181 of that; October 31 prices 34%; December 31 62.3%. The market expects an announcement, just not this month.

Both ceasefires are holding in the prices. US–Iran through September 30 is 88%, and Israel–Iran through September 30 is 95.8%. A nuclear deal is the one thing nobody is paying for: Kalshi puts Before Oct 1 at 1% on $36,628 of flow.

The US–Iran board decays fast: 88% through September 30, 57% through October 31, 47% through November 30, 41% through December 31, on $172,435 a day. The Israel–Iran board decays slowly over the same months—95.8%, 84%, 75%, 70%—on $147,833. Same region, same window, and the market thinks the US arrangement is the fragile one.

Left: the blockade board, where October 15 is 20% and March 31, 2027 is 78%. Right: Kalshi's nuclear-deal ladder, $3.9M of open interest that climbs from 1% before October to 10% before 2027 and 38% before January 20, 2029. An end to the blockade is priced as likely inside six months; a deal inside the same window is not.

The weekly board for September 21–27 prices traffic above 20 ships at 88% and above 25 at 29%, on $48,103; it settles September 29. The normalisation ladder holds $7.8M of open interest and puts a return to normal before November at 7%, before 2027 at 22% and before 2028 at 53%. Fees are the other tail: Iran charging for passage by October 31 prices 15%.

September 29 settles the Hormuz weekly board. September 30 settles the near gates on both ceasefire boards, the blockade board, and the Kharg and leadership tails.

• The blockade's September 30 gate at 11% against October 31 at 34%. If the month closes without an announcement, watch whether October re-prices or simply inherits the money.
• The US–Iran ceasefire's 31-point drop from September 30 to October 31, the steepest month-on-month decay on the page.
• A senior US–Iran meeting by October 31 at 46%, against a deal before November at 3%. Talks are priced; an outcome is not.

A US invasion before 2027 prices 13% and turned $213,268, the second-largest daily flow on the page. Kharg Island out of Iranian control by September 30 is 0.3% on $50,618; leadership change by September 30 is 0.4% on $16,743. Below, the next senior US–Iran meeting: 30% by September 30, 46% by October 31, 72% by December 31.