Michigan Senate 2026

This page is the general election, and three books are pricing it within three points of each other.

Kalshi's party book has El-Sayed at 70.5%, its person book at 73.5%, and Polymarket at 72.5%. Three days ago all three read 71.5% to 72.5%; the two Kalshi books have moved a point or two in opposite directions. The September move from about 61% has held.

The party book had its busiest day on this page, $214,135, and most of it bought Mike Rogers. The Rogers leg took $146,646, 68%, at 29%, and holds $2,123,230 of open interest to El-Sayed's $1,384,003. Three days ago the whole book turned $40,130. The person book leans the same way: Rogers $25,427, El-Sayed $14,592.

Polymarket's flow has evened out. Its book turned $30,656, split $15,774 on Rogers and $14,882 on El-Sayed; three days ago three quarters of it bought the favorite.

The person book still lists the defeated primary field: Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens are each marked at 1%.

Kalshi's closest-Senate-race book says no. Iowa leads at 18%, then Texas at 12.5%, Maine and Kansas at 10.5% each and Ohio at 8.45%. Michigan, second on this board at 9.85% in mid-September, is not in the top five. Polymarket's version of the board is no longer listed and has come off this page.

That fits the outcome books. A race that has moved from 61 / 39 to about 72 / 28 is less likely to be the nail-biter, and the closest-race market has repriced with it.

The two favorites side by side, Kalshi's El-Sayed contract against Polymarket's. 73.5% against 72.5%: the cross-exchange spread on this race is one point and has been inside three points for weeks. The disagreement on Michigan is not about the level. It is about which side the money should be on, and for now the money on every book leans to Rogers.

The November 3 seat on three books. Kalshi runs it twice, once as a named-person Categorical that still carries the defeated primary field and once as a two-way, and Polymarket runs a third.

Person book: El-Sayed 73.5%, Rogers 28.5%. Party book: El-Sayed 70.5%, Rogers 29%. Polymarket: El-Sayed 72.5%, Rogers 27.5%. The party book is the busiest of the three at $214,135 and is now the lowest on El-Sayed, three points under Kalshi's own person book.

National Senate control, for the context this seat sits inside. Kalshi prices a Democratic Senate at 64.5%, up from 62.5% three days ago and 48.5% in mid-September, and Michigan's ten-point move is part of that repricing.

The flow matches, too: the chamber book's busier leg is the Republican one, $306,466 of $414,381 at 37.5%, the same lean as Michigan's party book.

• Rogers took 68% of the party book's day. $146,646 against $67,489 for El-Sayed, at 29%, on a book that turned five times its volume of three days ago. Flow against the favorite has been the pattern on this race since August, and the price has moved the other way throughout.
• A three-point gap inside Kalshi. The party book has El-Sayed at 70.5% and the person book at 73.5%, on the same seat. The party book is where the Rogers buying landed.
• Polymarket's flow has turned even. $15,774 on Rogers and $14,882 on El-Sayed, after leaning to the favorite.
• South Carolina ran this experiment. In the August 25 runoff the money was on Ralph Norman all week and he lost by five. Volume was not information there.
• Michigan has left the closest-race board's top five. Iowa at 18% and Texas at 12.5% lead it.
• The party book is the one to watch. It is the busiest of the three. If the Rogers buying is information, it shows there first.