Mention Markets 2026 — contracts on what people say

Kalshi's weekly board on what Trump says turned $431,275 in its last full day on $601,853 of open interest, and settles this morning. Most of it is already decided: Sleepy Joe is at 99.5%, while Voter ID and Save America Act—the two busiest legs at $60,990 and $59,201—sit at 0.5% and 1%.

This week's board has opened on $1,078. Save America Act is back at 72%, TDS at 61% and Autopen at 59.5%, across 37 legs settling October 5.

Left: Carnival's earnings-call board, $17,523 today on 56,907 contracts held, led by Oil at 18.5% on $4,182 and Princess at 44.5%. Right: what Trump says this week, settling October 5.

Left: Save America Act at 72% on the new weekly board—the same words were priced at 1% as last week's board closed. Right: what Vlad Tenev says in his HOOD Summit keynote, $9,398 today, with Active Trader at 85% taking $6,516 of it and Credit Card at 63.5%.

Constellation Brands' board turns $12,276, and $11,115 of it—91%—is on Pacifico at 76%, up ten points on the day. BlackRock's turns $1,128, with Digital Asset at 65% taking $663; Private Market (90%) and Performance Fee (89%) sit near certain. One word carries each board.

Nike's board turns $2,270, and $1,457 of it is on Investor Day at 88%. Tariff is at 95%, Converse 88% and SKIMS / NikeSKIMS 54%. Johnson & Johnson reports October 13 on $988, with Tecvayli at 84% the busiest leg on $444 and Rybrevant now at 48%.

Kalshi's board on which companies Trump names in September settles October 1 on $23,123 and 107,161 contracts held: DoorDash 89% on $13,926, Boeing 99%, ChatGPT / OpenAI 53%, and JPMorgan down to 13% from 54% two days ago. Polymarket's version prices Boeing at 61%—thirty-eight points under Kalshi on the same month. Beside it, Kevin Warsh's October press conference on $11,144, led by Productivity at 74% and Shock at 76%.

September 29 is Nike's call; October 1 settles both company boards; October 5 settles the weekly board; October 8 settles the Xi board.

• Save America Act at 72%, a week after the same leg sank to 1%.
• Boeing on Kalshi and Polymarket. Both boards ask whether Trump names the company in September, and they were thirty-eight points apart yesterday.
• Oil at 18.5% on Carnival, the busiest leg on a board that turned $17,523.
• Active Trader at 85% on Robinhood's keynote board, three-quarters of its day.