Los Angeles Mayor 2026—Raman vs Bass Runoff

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Nithya Raman leads Karen Bass on all three exchanges: 57.5% on Kalshi, 59.55% on Polymarket and 58% on Manifold. When this page was built after the June primary, the same books had the incumbent at 63.5–65.5%.

The June 2 jungle primary sent Bass and City Councilmember Raman to a November 3 runoff; every other name in the field has settled No, so each book is a two-way question.

Kalshi turned $848,267 in 24 hours on $13.6M of open interest, about ten times its day a week ago, and $460,497 of it went to the Bass leg at 42.5%, against $387,795 on Raman. Los Angeles remains the only city government the exchanges price at Senate-race liquidity.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold on the same two-candidate question. All three pies read Raman 57.5–59.55% and Bass 41.5–42.5%, about two points between the venues. Polymarket is the most bullish on Raman; Kalshi, where most of the money trades, the least.

The two live legs on Kalshi, then the same pair on Polymarket. Raman at 57.5% and 59.55%; Bass at 42.5% and 41.5%. Polymarket's Raman leg took $72,257 of its $90,900 day; on Kalshi more of the money went the other way, $460,497 onto Bass. The prices nearly agree and the flow does not.

  • Three and a half weeks to go. Raman at 57.5–59.55% across three exchanges, against 36.5% on Kalshi in June. The runoff is November 3.
  • Where Kalshi's money is going. $460,497 of an $848,267 day on Bass at 42.5%. Heavy buying on the trailing leg has not moved the price; if it keeps coming, watch whether it starts to.
  • A two-point spread. Polymarket has Raman two points above Kalshi; the deep book and the thin ones are close enough that the number is mostly just the number.
  • The whole California ballot moves together. Same-day statewide races and propositions share the turnout model—read this against the California governor workspace, where Becerra is 96.35%.

Los Angeles votes the same day as the statewide races. The California governor workspace carries Becerra at 96.35% and the statewide propositions; Kalshi's ballot-measure board below prices Proposition 3 at 89.5% and Proposition 38 at 68.5%. Municipal turnout in LA is the single largest input into both.