Kansas Senate 2026 — Marshall vs. Hamilton

Roger Marshall leads Kansas's Senate race at 63.5% on Kalshi and 62.5% on Polymarket, against Adam Hamilton at 36.5% on both. Three weeks ago Marshall was 68% on Kalshi and 75% on Polymarket; the seven-point gap between the venues has closed to one as Polymarket came down to meet Kalshi.

Kalshi turned $129,147 today, and this time the favorite's leg took most of it: $85,972 on Marshall against $42,872 on Hamilton. On Polymarket's $12,815, Hamilton's leg still took more, $7,178 to $5,637.

The margin board says the race is tighter than the winner board. Marshall, 1+ points is 58%, 3+ points 42.5%, down from 50%, and 5+ points 29%, down from 46%. A favorite at 63.5% is less than even to win by three.

Kalshi's board on the left, Polymarket's on the right. Kalshi settles on certification in January 2027; Polymarket settles on the November 3 result. Manifold's party-level version sits further down beside the margin ladder.

Roger Marshall at 63.5% on Kalshi and 62.5% on Polymarket. Three weeks ago the two venues were seven points apart on this leg, with the thinner venue the more confident; since then Polymarket has come down twelve and a half points and Kalshi four and a half.

Adam Hamilton at 36.5% on both venues, up from 34% and 33%. On Kalshi his leg took $42,872, half of Marshall's $85,972; on Polymarket it still took more than the favorite's, $7,178 against $5,637.

The margin ladder on the left and Manifold's party-level board on the right. Kalshi prices Marshall, 3+ points at 42.5%, 5+ at 29% and 9+ at 14.5%, on $1,915; the 5+ rung was the busiest at $1,037. Manifold has the Republican at 65%, a little above both real-money venues.

Two boards that put Kansas next to its neighbors. The governor-senate combo has a Republican sweep, Ty Masterson and Marshall, at 55.5%, down from 64%, with the split tickets at 22% and 5% and a Democratic sweep, Cindy Holscher and Hamilton, at 21.5%, which took $1,847 of the board's $2,338. Beside it, Kalshi's head-to-head on which race is won by the larger margin: Nebraska 60.5%, Kansas 33%, on $585.

The general settles on certification in January 2027 on Kalshi and on the November 3 result on Polymarket. The margin and combo boards settle with the result.

• Marshall at 63.5% and 62.5%. Down from 68% and 75% three weeks ago, with the venues now a point apart.
• The 3+ point margin leg at 42.5%. The race the margin board describes is closer than the winner board's price.
• Hamilton at 36.5% on both. Polymarket's crowd still puts more money on him than on the favorite.
• A Democratic sweep at 21.5% on the governor-senate combo, and the board's busiest leg.
• Kansas against Nebraska. Nebraska 60.5% to be won by the larger margin.